Both Wisconsin and Georgia also displayed a trend that has manifested in off-year elections since Trump’s election: the leftward swing of Hispanic voters.
After Trump improved his margins with Hispanic voters despite–or, perhaps, in spite of–his rhetoric about mass deportations, they have revolted and consistently voted for Democrats. Votehub, which tracks election results, flagged how in one heavily Latino precinct in Lincoln Village in Milwaukee’s south side, Taylor won 91 percent of the vote compared to Harris’s 2024 margin of 64 percent.
Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin flagged that a similar trend happened in Georgia’s 14th district in the majority-Hispanic city of Dalton. Shawn Harris won two majority-Hispanic precincts by 73 percent, a 51-point improvement since the 2024 presidential election.
Of course, plenty could happen between now and November. But consistently, special elections, primary elections and off-year races show a trend in the Democratic direction. And it’s not entirely clear that Republicans have any plan to divorce themselves from Trump or create any distance from him. And that could be the first rumblings of a blue wave Republicans did to themselves.