Carl Rove on the 2024 election…

As Democrats savor their victories in Tuesday’s Ohio abortion referendum, Kentucky governor’s race and Virginia and New Jersey legislative contests, they might be tempted to ignore the implications of a Nov. 3 New York Times/Siena College poll that shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in five of six 2024 battleground states. Mr. Trump lost all six in 2020.

Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by 5 points in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and 4 in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden beats Mr. Trump only in Wisconsin, by 2 points. Among the combined six-state sample of 3,662 registered voters, Mr. Trump leads by four points, 48% to 44%. If the 2024 election plays out this way—adjusting for reapportionment but otherwise assuming other states stay the same—Mr. Trump would flip the White House, winning 302 electoral votes to Mr. Biden’s 236. Last time it was 232 Trump, 306 Biden.

The poll shows a real risk for Mr. Biden from three blocs critical to his 2020 victory and his hopes for a 2024 repeat—young, Latino and black voters. His drop among these groups is driven by poor approval numbers on key issues—especially the economy—and a widespread feeling that he’s too old (71% of respondents agreed) and doesn’t have the “mental sharpness” to be president (62%).

Team Biden’s response was predictable and anemic. Campaign manager Julia Chavez Rodriguez emailed supporters to say polls a year before the election “are not predictive” before asking for a $25 donation. Spokesman Kevin Munoz opined that “predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later,” then said a Gallup poll had Barack Obama trailing Mitt Romney by 8 points a year before the 2012 election. Actually, Mr. Obama’s overall numbers were much better than that: He led Mr. Romney 46% to 44.3% on Nov. 7, 2011, in the RealClearPolitics average.

Mr. Obama also had advantages Mr. Biden doesn’t. The public saw Mr. Obama as a strong leader—young, energetic, mentally sharp and a much better and more natural political talent than Mr. Biden. He prosecuted his argument that Mr. Romney was a heartless plutocrat from a position of strength. Mr. Biden is operating from a position of extreme weakness. It will be much harder for him to take Mr. Trump down.

There was more dangerous news in the Times/Siena poll for both parties’ front-runners. Though not as well-known as Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley beats Mr. Biden in all six battlegrounds now. In four states, her margins are wider than Mr. Trump’s: She leads Mr. Biden by 7 points in Arizona, 3 in Georgia, 10 in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 6 in Nevada, and 13 in Wisconsin. Among the combined six states, Ms. Haley leads by 8 points (46% to 38%), twice Mr. Trump’s margin.

Mr. Biden may think he can caricature Ms. Haley as “ultra-MAGA,” but the Times/Siena survey shows voters know the difference between the GOP and Mr. Trump. A generic Republican beats Mr. Biden by even bigger margins in every battleground state, leading the Democrat by 14 to 18 points in each one. When all six are combined, the generic GOP candidate’s lead over Mr. Biden is 16 points (52% to 36%), four times Mr. Trump’s.

This suggests Republicans could score a historic victory next year if they run a new face. Apparently voters like what they see as the GOP’s values on the economy, defense, immigration, crime and the national debt. Democratic messaging mavens can try casting a fresh Republican as a Jan. 6 insurrectionist, an election-denying fabulist, a demagogic white supremacist. But voters wouldn’t be responding so positively in polls if they thought “Republican” was synonymous with all that nonsense.

Democrats are right to be scared, but Republicans should be concerned, too. Both party’s front-runners have enormous weaknesses. Joe and Jill Biden are deluding themselves if they believe only he can defeat Mr. Trump. But the GOP leader could sink his own campaign with his constant trashing of his intra-party rivals and their supporters. Turned off, they could fail to turn out or even turn away from the GOP.

Neither party’s front-runner will be easily dislodged. But if no changes are made, Americans will get the worst dumpster fire of a campaign in history. It doesn’t have to be this way, and everyone but Messrs. Trump and Biden has good reason to try changing it. The party that picks a fresh face will likely win the White House.

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An expansion of the points I made….stick with moz.

You have some valid points about Trump.    However, there are also question marks on the issue and the country is in a viciously poor situation as a result of the Biden catacstrophe.    Will the Republican candidate have the strength of character to deal with world leaders and be able to gain their respect - something Biden has not been able to do.

However, there are other factgors that will influnce the election of the RP candidate,    Will such a candidate be able to lead the working class pop[ul;ation in the USA?    Let me explain the working class people are suffering badly and are worse off today than they were under Reagan.   No President since have done anything positivce for their benefit - irrespectiv of whether they were Republican or Democrat.    

Any candidate who wants to win n 2024 would have to convince the working class that he or she is interested in their well=being and improvement in their living conditions.   A kind of airy-fairy approach is not going to work.    What the Demcorats do is they Govern by regulations that strangle real economic growth - will Haley or any other candidate be able to change that?    

To continue to pleased the ultra-liberals and leftists could imply conniving with them in Government.    That s why since Reagan - the Republicans had shit leaders interested only in enhancing their own interests - not firm and effective Governance.    The fcact is there were way too many of those in both parties.   

You refer to Romney in 2012 -   Romney was the worst leader ever to be considered as a RP candidate.   He never did anything to prove that he would achieve better results than Obama did.    He was and is effectively a Republican in Name Only,    He was like McCann and Graham - lifelong friends of Biden.    

To be quite frank - the USA  needs leadership and stromg leaders - at this stage there are none.     .. .         .        

By the way Mozart who do you see  as a replacement for Biden as DP candidate?    Pokahontas, Newsom or Whitmer?   The cupboard is no overflowing - is it?  It depends entirely who the Party funders identified as a useful puppet.                      

Rove is an arch Globalist Uniparty Rino. He is totally despised by MAGA. Pure establishment propagandist. 

I was wondering why he was telling the truth that Trump was beating Biden. Then we came to part where he claims a hapless Rino like Haley would do better. 

What utter nonsense. The Trump base knows who Haley is. Another Globalist who will manage the American decline.

It's no use voting in these Ryan, Romney, Haley Globalists. They are just more subtle about destroying America than the Demonrats. 

If you think the huge MAGA base will turn out in droves for Haley you are wrong. 

Trust the deceitful Globalist mozzz to support Haley. Anybody but Trump is what he is saying really. He keeps showing us who he really is. Disgusting! 

Karl Rove supported Liz Chenney. 

You can't get a bigger establishment Swamp rat and Rino than Liz Chenney. Liz lost her seat by the biggest margin of any sitting Rep. 

These are the traitors mozzz supports. Globalists one and all. Swamp creatures selling out America. 

Karl Rove Establishment Uniparty Rino.