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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  CDC study finally collapses Wuhan Virus mass hysteria BS narrative

CDC study finally collapses Wuhan Virus mass hysteria BS narrative

Started by Beeno145 REPLIES968 VIEWS· 24 May 2020, 21:16
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BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
24 May 2020, 21:16
#1
24 May 2020, 21:16#1

Yes oaks as Beeno and some others have said the whole hysteria hype was the biggest hoax ever pulled by the Globalists.

Everyone should have paid close attention to what Beeno< Moz etc was posting about death rates instead of wailing about conspiracy theories. How many times do i have to ask the oaks not to be so terribly gullible. Redrooi and Redshark are models of gullibility and their example should not be followed. Look how foolish the two loons looks today!!! Bwahahahaahahahahahahaha


When you read the article remember that Stanford University says the unreported cases were between 50 times and 80 times the reported infections. The article say 35% probably meaning 35 times.

Also remember 4 genocidal demonrat Governors were the cause of the vast majority of the 39% Wuhan Virus USA deaths attributable to old age homes.

Also note Dr Birx says Wuhan Virus death are overstated by some 25 % !!! ( at least!)


The death rate the CDC has no come up with is still too high at 0.26%. As suggested it will come down more.


But if you consider what the death rate for people under 65 with no pre-existing conditions it has to be at least less than half the Flu death rate. There was NO valid scientific reason to lock down the working force and children going to school. Quarantine the old and sick till herd immunity is achieved.

Those guilty of perpetrating this terrible hoax must pay a very heavy price if not the ultimate price.

How much longer can these demonrat snakes continue to try and destroy the American economy. They must pay a heavy price!!!



For weeks, the nation’s economy has been under lockdown to curb the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus. It’s contagious. That’s true, but in the span of a few days, the entire COVID narrative has virtually collapsed. We still don’t have enough testing regarding antibodies, though preliminary results show that the infection rate could be immensely higher than what is reported, with higher recovery numbers

It was said to be spread mostly through surfaces. That was revised on Thursday.


Georgia has re-opened and no Armageddon has followed. Florida was supposed to be a graveyard by now. It’s not. Eight weeks in, COVID case and deaths remain lower than other hard-hit areas along the Acela Corridor. In the meantime, we’ve had Democratic governors used the virus to carve out power grabs. There is no reason for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer to extend the stay-at-home order until June 12th. It’s madness

I supported the lockdowns to curb the spread and prevent the hospitals from being overrun. The spread of this thing was also impacting the markets as well. Well, the curve has been flattened. The hospitals were not overwhelmed like what we saw in Italy. Mission accomplished. It’s time to re-open. 


While all of this was going on, millions of Americans were forced into the unemployment line, small businesses were pinched, and even big retail giants were filing for bankruptcy protection. Some are very lucky that they can work from home, the vast majority cannot. And the last three weeks or so has been a cacophony of nonsense. Are face masks good when it comes to combating this thing? Also, and most importantly, what’s the real mortality rate? (What BEENO focused on) That alone is the silver bullet. Forget the masks, standing six feet apart, etc. if it’s just like the flu, open everything back up now, not piecemeal. It’s not necessary. And the Center for Disease Control and Prevention doled out a study (via Conservative Review):


Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged ita month ago.

Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

Some of you have been sharing and voicing skepticism over the numbers and the policies that have been born from them. What can I say? Maybe I overreacted. To those who were right,  keep spreading the word. Yet, I‘M also certain that the political class wouldn’t have acted differently. A pandemic going around when registered Democrats are in office is just inviting disaster, as we’ve seen in New York. Actually, that’s not quite fair. 

For any leader in a position to protect its citizenry, including Trump, a lockdown and a ‘better safe than sorry’ mentality is what probably would've won out in this situation. Suppose COVID was going to be as bad as some people projected? At the time, would you, as a politician, roll the dice? There’s going to be a lot of 'Monday Morning quarterbacking here, given the new figures. Hell, Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of Trump’s top Wuhan coronavirus task force members, now says staying inside for too long isn’t good, as it could cause “irreparable damage”:

Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC on Friday.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” Fauci said during an interview with CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on “Halftime Report.”

Meanwhile, Germany has opened back up, no issues. In Japan, they did none of the drastic measures we saw enacted and they’re about to re-open. 

No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed. The country doesn’t have a center for disease control.‘


Did Japan Just Beat the Virus Without Lockdowns or Mass Testing?Japan’s state of emergency is nearing its end with new cases of the coronavirus dwindling to mere dozens.


We still don’t know enough about this virus. Keeping people inside because you don’t know some stuff about a disease isn’t sufficient to keep people inside, especially when the initial goal has been met here. It’s time to re-open America. Does this CDC study deliver a death blow to those who want to stay inside until there’s a cure? Probably not, but to the wider electorate—It’s could be quite a different take, especially those running family-owned businesses who have been brutalized by this pandemic. These folks would rather risk infection than lose everything, and based on this new data set, I don’t blame them.


SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
24 May 2020, 21:47
#2
24 May 2020, 21:47#2
Your master Trump said that he saved millions of American lives through "his" implementation of the lockdown. So is he now a globalist? 
PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
24 May 2020, 22:00
#3
24 May 2020, 22:00#3

And in NY the big ole hospital ship is pulling out having treated 180 odd people in 4 weeks. The multi million dollar emergency medical facilities are being dismantled, some having treated zero Covid patients. Hospitals are letting staff go to avoid bankruptcy because there's no one to treat.

Covid-19 - the sucker punch that fell the world without even connecting.

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
24 May 2020, 22:12
#4
24 May 2020, 22:12#4

I have heard that Coronavirus is just starting to become significant in South Africa. It appears to be spreading in SA faster than any other place in Africa. With Brasil doing badly, it shows the Coronavirus can strike warm countries as well.

SA might actually have gone into lockdown too early.
Corona,  like other respiratory diseases, appears to be worse in Winter. 

Brasil is doing badly but they went for all-out herd immunity approach, totally different from SA. 

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
24 May 2020, 22:28
#5
24 May 2020, 22:28#5

Redshark you buffon Trump is not a Doctor. He banned travel and got Pence to run the response team. Dr Fauci was supposed to be a world renowned epidemiologist. He and Birx acted on a rotten model produced by Niel Ferguson of imperial college.

However Trump began fighting this lock down some time ago. Now however despite all the evidence the demonrat governors want to keep the lockdown going. Also Trump has said any vaccine will be voluntary. Trump supports the highly effective highly Hy droxychloroquine cocktail. These are not globalist views you moron!

To suggest that Trump wanted to destroy the great economy he so wonderfully built shows what an unhinged buffoon you are. Must have been very hard on him but when told by Fauci and Birx 2.2 million could die he closed down the economy.

Trump unlike the anti American demonrat governors knows the cure cant be worse than the cause. That is Trump always sensible seeing the big picture.

But the demonrats hoped by crashing the economy they could topple Trump and to hell with the consequences for the American people.

What a drooling loon Redshark is !!!!!!!!!!!!!!




RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
24 May 2020, 22:41
#6
24 May 2020, 22:41#6
When you whiny little conspiracy theorists have to decontaminate a building at short notice over a weekend without disrupting scheduled mainframe maintenance and business critical batch jobs; when you have to have the 75 staff members who were in contact with your one positive case all tested and quarantined and accounted for; when you have to trace and notify every staff member and third party service provider about the positive case; when you have to deal with the Department of Health and convince them that your social distancing policies, your sanitizing policies and your Covid workplace plan are all valid and operational; when you have to placate the SAPS because of whistle-blowers reporting you for not being compliant; when you're responsible for relocating smoking rooms, sick bays, quarantine areas and setting up temperature scanning stations . . . then come and tell me this is all a big hoax. Until then, shove your pathetic, ignorant and misguided little opinions up your collective arses.
You are all squealing and whining and pretending this is all bullshit while people like me are having to deal with the actual realities of this situation.
My working day at the moment consists of taking a call on my land line, putting down the phone and taking the next call, trying to answer my cellphone in between calls often with a phone on each ear and on the rare occasion that the calls stop for a few seconds, checking out my email to find another 20 emails requiring my urgent response . . . and then to check out this board and find weak-arsed little punks like you lot telling me this is all a hoax that isn't really happening.
This pandemic is real. People are dying. It's very important to sanitize, wear masks and maintain social distancing. Anyone who thinks differently is incredibly ignorant, not living in the real world and endangering the lives of the people around them.
Tell me this is all a big hoax and I not only pity you but worry about your family members who have an ignorant moron like you looking after their interests.

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
24 May 2020, 22:44
#7
24 May 2020, 22:44#7

@Simpleton Beeno, if the Coronavirus was overhyped, then your master Trump did not save millions of American lives. So if Fauci gave Trump BS numbers, they were in fact BS.
So he cant on one hand claim the Virus is a hoax or overrated, while on the other hand claim he saved millions...

By the time of blocking Chinese flights, Covid-19 was already all over the world.
Many of the New York viruses appear to have come from Europe and not China. Or at least from China to Europe then to New York.  EU flights were only blocked much later on. 

So blocking Chinese people from entering the country achieved little. This is how Trump apparently saved millions.

Trump it the puppet master to the Trumpanzees. You can read one of his news articles, and the next day Beeno has followed the script to the tee. Trump interprets reality for Beeno, and his puppet thinks and acts exactly the way Trump wants. 

Beeno you say that Trump is not a doctor, but you would rather follow his advice of HCQ as the treatment- especially when mixed with other drugs into some potjiekos. When it was taking for Malaria, it was not such a potjiekos.

The UK has had almost 40,00 deaths so far. The average number of deaths in April was more than double what it is each month.
The UK prime minister was also lax on coronavirus in the beginning.
He said that he would not stop shaking hands with people, and 3 weeks later was in intensive care. 


His wife and top political advisor also got infected, and a few other ministers got it. This was not long after going down the way of 100% herd immunity approach. The Imperial college model was serious, and without social distancing and the lockdown, it would have been much worse. 


PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
25 May 2020, 09:02
#8
25 May 2020, 09:02#8

The virus is not a hoax. Locking away the working class who the numbers now clearly show is about at much as risk from this virus as they are from the common flu, destroying livelihoods in the process (in SA 600,000 jobs at risk in the tourism sector alone, three quarters of all SMEs - providing almost 30% of the country's employment - out of business by July 2020), criminalizing people's most basic right of putting food on the table for themselves and their families, that is the problem.

An extreme response like this requires an extreme threat. Covid-19 is an extreme threat only so far as the fallout that will come from these lockdowns are concerned. Are we wondering why so many people with comorbidities are dying when the world has prioritized Covid-19 and put treatment for other conditions on the back burner?

We should now be isolating the elderly and the sick (impossible in most of SA with conditions in the townships which has gone unchecked for the last two decades thanks to the ANC stealing thousands of billions of rands instead of looking after the people), because they are the people dying from this.

In Sweden which has gone without lockdown we can get a nice picture of how the virus affects an open society: 3746 of the deaths were over 60 (3462 over 70), only 179 under 60 (source: Statista). Geddit? Destroying economies by locking down the working ages makes no sense anymore now that we have real numbers instead of Mr Crackpot Ferguson's crazy projections.

Good luck with your daily struggles, Rooinek. It's not easy anywhere right now.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
25 May 2020, 09:51
#9
25 May 2020, 09:51#9

Well Stage 3 of lockdown in SA seems much less restrictive than previously thought. Of course, what's gazetted is what matters and I'm still waiting to read a summary of that.

What I'm not a fan of is that from now on, we can seemingly be locked indoors at will. Always slowly and totally justifiably...is exactly how we lose our freedom. I really hate this.

 

PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
25 May 2020, 10:21
#10
25 May 2020, 10:21#10

And also arrested at will. And if government gets their wish also quarantined in a facility by force if you are positive, even if you're asymptomatic. Fortunately there's been strong resistance from the public to many of the wacky regulations. If we just quietly submitted I doubt we would be seeing level 3 now. It's public resistance and pressure that are opening the doors.

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
25 May 2020, 10:54
#11
25 May 2020, 10:54#11

“   Posted by: sharkbok (11688 posts)

May 24, 2020, 22:44

@Simpleton Beeno, if the Coronavirus was overhyped, then your master Trump did not save millions of American lives. So if Fauci gave Trump BS numbers, they were in fact BS.
So he cant on one hand claim the Virus is a hoax or overrated, while on the other hand claim he saved millions...

By the time of blocking Chinese flights, Covid-19 was already all over the world. 

Many of the New York viruses appear to have come from Europe and not China. Or at least from China to Europe then to New York.  EU flights were only blocked much later on. “

You and Beeno are in many ways exactly the same. Beeno wants to investigate each and every person that as much as stare at Trump. If everybody who he wants investigated and charged has to be investigated and charged, the Trump administration will have to serve another four terms to get the job done. The House and Senate Committees will have no time for any lawmaking. They will be too busy with investigations. The courts will not be able to litigate any other matters. The lawyers, though, will prosper. 

You, on the other end, is so blinded with hate for anybody who is not an atheist and in line with your socialist view points that you cannot see the wood from the trees. Anybody who don’t agree with you is a drum beating, Bible bashing ultra religious extreme far right lunatic. 

You are typical of many from your generation who do not see the reality that you cannot judge the actions in the past based on present day norms. You completely negate that the present day norms did not exist on those days. It is like condemning someone who got injured in a car accident, in 1950, for not wearing a seatbelt. 

You are doing exactly the same with the coronavirus and Trump. You are shitting on Trump for actions that he took or didn’t take at the time when nobody knew anything about the virus. Journalists were nailing him for closing the border at a time when the virus were clearly coming from China and hardly started in Europe. At the time everybody on the left condemned him for doing so, saying he is a lunatic racist and that people should ignore him and his plans to stop the virus. “Go out, get on the bus and carry on as normal”, they said. Then, when the shit hit the fan they crapped on him because he tried to calm down people when there were a few isolated cases in the USA and nobody still knew enough of the virus. Even today they don’t know enough and have numerous disagreements. 

It is easy for any fool like you to say today what should have been done in January. You are so clever now but if you had to draw up contingency plans in January, based on the available information, at the time, it would have been a major WOMFU. A well organised military fuck up. 

Your master Rooinek keep on bashing Beeno for bashing Fauci and Birx. Saying that in January he wanted to kneel down and worship them and now he wants to investigate them. Well, Fauci and Birx has done so many flip flops that nobody can be blamed for liking them the one day and hating them the next. 

I find it strange that you want to nail Trump for each and every death, yet you have no issues with Cuomo’s share in almost 40% of those deaths. And those were in NY alone. Take that away and it leaves around 56,000 deaths in the rest of the USA. 

When the administration enforced the lockdown everybody crapped on Trump. Now he is trying to end it and they are crapping on him again. 

Suddenly you also realise the effect of listening to Ferguson. In January and February they had nothing but China’s lies and deceit and Ferguson’s crappy models. Yet the biggest prick is Trump because he, just like the entire world, reacted on what was available, ie China’s lies and deceit, Ferguson, Fauci and Birx. Forget about what we have learnt since January, and based only on what was known in January, what exactly would you have done if you were POTUS then?

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
25 May 2020, 14:05
#12
25 May 2020, 14:05#12

There is a vast difference between my take and that of morons like Redrooi and Redshark. 

Trump relied initially on people like Fauci and Birx who were supposedly world class experts. What was he supposed to do. He was told 2.2 million or more would die. 

Abject fools like these two mamparas now think Trump Trump should not have listened to Fauci etc but have been rooting for Fauci and saying Trump should listen to the experts. 

However, and critically,  Trump called for the reopening of states and democrats still want them closed hoping thereby to crash the economy completely and unseat Trump. 

He was the FIRST TO REACT re travel bans and creating the Wuhan Virus task force.

He rightly recommended the hydroxychloroquine cocktail. Hated by those wanting to force world wide mandatory vaccines and certification whereby with conforming you can't travel, go to school or get a job - "for starters

Thank God Trump is President otherwise America and indeed the world would see an unparalleled economic and social DISASTER.

Windpomp  there are already 120 countries wanting a China investigation which obviously will spread into what that marxist villain Tedros did and his links to Gate's and Fauci. 

Everyday more comes out about this Wuhan Virus conspiracy. Facts about the Fauci, Gates, Soros and WHO links are all over the internet. 

The Indians and Africans killed and paralized by the Gates vaccines must be investigated whether you think so or not. The South Africa Government complained about Gate's using us as Guinea pigs. 

The Gates role in developing of the Wuhan Virus must be investigated.  

What has happened around the world is one of the greatest ever crimes against humanity and a full on investigation MUST happen. 

I suspect these criminals are not yet done. 

Oh yes make sure the 4 demonrat Governor sending infected folk back to the old age homes be investigated as well. 5, 800 deaths in New York city alone. Do you also want them to get off scott free. 

Those providing FLASE stats must be investigated. 

That 3.4% death rate was a totally nonsensical number. No asymptomatic cases were included whilst the flu rate of 0.1% included 36 million estimated cases of those getting flu but not reporting it. 

Windpomp if you think that shocking BS was simply an error you are as daft as a hatter. 

Neil Ferguson must be investigated for his totally fraudulent model and fake stats. The 500,000 deaths he predicted panicked Britain. 

Ferguson had a terrible record on predictions. I posted on all his horrendously wrong predictions. Why did Fauci use Ferguson's Imperial College model knowing the guy was a total fraudster. Ferguson has always wildly over estimated things. Fauci must have known this. 

Why has there been so much censorship of epidemiologist doctors etc speaking out. 

Now that the CDC has at last been forced to admit (by the vast array of medical people pointing out the obvious) that the rate could be 0.26% and perhaps lower do democrats still want theickdiwn. 

I guess you think they are simply making a mistake. No political agenda at play!!!! 

Windpomp m ostly you exhibit good sound sense but at times you are as gullible as those two jackasses Redrooi and Redshark. Wake up Windpomp!!! 

As for Beeno. I have amazingly got this right. I knew very early on that the death rate was hopelessly wrong and this mass hysteria was nonsense and based on a lie, known to be a lie, and that it never warranted the destruction of the world economy. 

Take a bow Beeno. Common sense goes a long way oaks. Not sucking up globalist propaganda is essential if you don't want make utter fools of yourselves like our two resident clowns! 





SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
25 May 2020, 14:57
#13
25 May 2020, 14:57#13
It is amazing how relics from the Apartheid like Comrade Mike and Captain Ceradunce can call the US Democrats socialist and communist. The US has always been one of the most capitalist countries, regardless of it is run by Democrats ore Republicans. 
Apartheid was pretty much a communist police state. Oue Mike and codger Ceradunce were part of the system. People that work for the government are beurocrats, pretty much state owned socialists. 
The one religion one world order claiming the rest of the world are globalists...
I have no issue against conservatives, I cant take religious happy clappies that live in a fake world where everything is a conspiracy. These are the dummies that ruin the efforts of a lockdown and social distancing. As for Beeno, he no longer thinks. Whatever the Church and other conspiracists say, that is what Beeno thinks and does. 


CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
25 May 2020, 15:11
#14
25 May 2020, 15:11#14

“ can call the US Democrats socialist and communist. “

Quote me saying that. You are like a boxer who has already been counted out and heard the bell but who still wants to carry on fighting. 

“  Apartheid was pretty much a communist police state. “

As I said, and has proven, so many times, you have absolutely no cooking clue what you are talking about. 

You will never understand it because you are too short sighted to do so, but had it not been for some of the Apartheid relics you may probably not even have existed, given what happened in other parts of Africa. 

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
25 May 2020, 15:28
#15
25 May 2020, 15:28#15
Many of the Apartheid police and army were pure evil. I remember the police driving around shouting and swearing at people. They were often drinking on the job, cutting corners and not following the rules of the road.
The seemed to enjoy fighting and aggression, especially when they outnumbered people, and had guns at their side. I even knew some English speaking police who were also tough guys with the uniform on. Making stupid jokes while they harassed people. 
A bit like the steroid bouncers in SA. Violent thugs. 
If the Apartheid police had worked in the UK, most of them would be fired within 30 days. Religious self-righteous shit that thought they were God's people. Like Nazi's...They certainly gave white English speaking kids crap for doing nothing. I have seen the BroederBond police (Apartheid police force) arrest black people, and get overly aggressive and they seemed to enjoy it. Calling the back person a kaffer and laughing all while doing this. 
Apartheid failed. It protected the interests of the White Religious Male Afrikaaner and stagnated society. A new party should have been given a chance, but the deeply religious ensured they were the majority and proceeded to destroy SA. The word Kaffer means non-believer in God- so this is pretty much a license to do anything for a deeply religious person.
Much of the hatred that black feel towards whites is from the actions of the Broederbond and co. Yet according to Ceradunce, the younger generations should be grateful for the state of SA today.  
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
25 May 2020, 15:30
#16
25 May 2020, 15:30#16

No cooking clue. 100% correct.

Redshark the communist loon has missed how the demonrats have all been supporting China against America. 

Biden who has moved far to the left. Bernie is a know communist. 

People are rightly calling them the democrat socialist party. 

What don't you follow you absurd nutjob. 

Yes and these fascist leftists want everyone not parroting their socislists dreams to be censored. 

You are a sick fascist redshark. Time you were admitted to a loony bin. A few electric shocks night sort you out! 



CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
25 May 2020, 15:34
#17
25 May 2020, 15:34#17

You are exposing your ignorance in every post and it is becoming worse. I will not embarrass you again by dissecting your post. 

Just your last sentence alone is a perfect example of your ignorance, not to speak about your Broederbond bullshit. Of course you can claim expertise by calling in your buddy, Google. 

Having said that, I’m waiting for the quote about me calling the Dems socialists and communists. 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 17:04
#18
25 May 2020, 17:04#18



‘My working day at the moment consists of taking a call on my land line, putting down the phone and taking the next call, trying to answer my cellphone in between calls often with a phone on each ear and on the rare occasion that the calls stop for a few seconds, checking out my email to find another 20 emails requiring my urgent response . . . and then to check out this board and find weak-arsed little punks like you lot telling me this is all a hoax that isn't really happening.’
Hilarious. Peeper  tells us how life demands his every minute‘s attention....and then that he HAS to checkout the Board. Wahahaha....life of a grunt and an imperceptive  one at that.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 17:11
#19
25 May 2020, 17:11#19
Apr 18, 2020, 23:05

We need the population numbers by age group. This is the female chart in NY:

Male379420447.38%Female421407452.62%   Under 5 years5408786.75%5 to 9 years5611157.01%10 to 14 years5308166.63%15 to 19 years5206416.5%20 to 24 years5898317.37%25 to 34 years136802117.08%35 to 44 years126328015.77%45 to 54 years101238512.64%55 to 59 years3691054.61%60 to 64 years3143493.93%65 to 74 years4947946.18%75 to 84 years3213604.01%85 years and over1217031.52% 
So roughly 16% are over 60. If they follow the Diamond Princess mortality at most 2% will die, even if all the remaining critical patients on the ship die. So we can expect at most 2% of 16% to die in that group=32/10000. Or 0.32% of the population

In the remaining group of 84% their fatalities would be 15.7/84.3 of the over 60 fatalities if that chart is right. Which equals 15.7/84.3*0.32 or 0.06% of the population.

Adding the two groups, that suggests an upper bound for the death rate at about 0.4% assuming the worst case outcome for the Diamond Princess....in itself a worse case incubator.

The numbers bounce around a little but 0.1% to 0.4%, makes more sense than 1% to 4%.


 

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mozart

Hall Of Fame

31295 posts

Apr 19, 2020, 01:55

And one can tease out an implicit death rate for the under 60 group quite easily. 

We know that 84.3% of the deaths in NY are for the over sixties. Which is a product of the population in that  segment and a 2% death rate. So if dr is the death rate and p the population:

dr<60*0.84p= (dr>60*0.16p) 15.7/84.3

So dr<60 = 2/100*16/100*15.7/84.3

      dr<60= 0.02*0.16*0.186=0.0005952

So the implicit death rate for the 60 and under group is 0.06%.....6 people under 60 in 10000 will die. The  flu for the whole population has a rate of 10 people per 10000 dying. 

So one way of looking at this is to say  the population under 60 is less at risk from Wuhan, than the whole population is at risk for the flu. Protect the vulnerable and liberate everybody else.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 17:17
#20
25 May 2020, 17:17#20

The data was there a month ago for those who cared to look.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
25 May 2020, 18:28
#21
25 May 2020, 18:28#21

Moz, would you say that it's reasonable for society to expect experts to be able to carry out the same exercise that you did above? It seems well within reason, to me.

Where would you land if you did the above again while trying to model a worst case scenario?


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 18:44
#22
25 May 2020, 18:44#22

Plum I think 0.4% is pretty much a worst case scenario.....the viral load on the Diamond Princess must have been very high, and load appears to play a role in severity.


Why the ‘experts’ at the WHO came up with a 4% fatality rate boggles the mind. But I think it’s because they don’t sanity check their  models. It’s fine to use a complex computer model....they incorporate all the factors. But always sanity check the result against known outcomes.


Exactly the same criticism applies to the global warming models.

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
25 May 2020, 19:42
#23
25 May 2020, 19:42#23

Moz,

Hard to believe that they'd allow the model to run away with itself like that, unknowingly. 

Simulation software incorporates tools that underline the variables responsible for the biggest shifts in outcome. Precisely for purposes of investigation/study. It's a fundamental function of simulation. At least I thought it was.

Aren't you perhaps allowing them undue leeway(sanity check)? Your back of the envelope calculation was delivering figures on what has occurred(fact) as opposed to projectioning forward? 

In the latter case one could understand how the lack of built- in speed wobble protection could screw things up. Though, not so much in the former case, right?




 


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 19:54
#24
25 May 2020, 19:54#24

I think they weren’t separating  relevant data, while gathering all data. Only S Korea which tested extensively and the Diamond Princess which tested everybody provided an appropriate denominator. So with many asymptomatic cases the data they were gathering gave them the wrong initial instincts.


I take your point that simulation or even multiple regression (which is what they are using in the form of the Cox model).....should be giving them shadow coefficients that ring alarm bells. But their instincts of where reality was were probably wrong.


That said if they followed the Diamond Princess the numbers should have been close 5 weeks ago.

This is 2 diseases .....one for healthy people under 50, where it is no more dangerous than the flu......and a moderately dangerous/highly infectious disease  for  older people and those with comorbidities.

CDC data  shows only 5 in 10000 below 50 die, perhaps 1 in 10000 below 30. Here’s the latest CDC chart:


0

Parameter values Table 1ParameterScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5:

Current Best Estimate

R0

Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC

22332.5Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age in years

Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC

0-49: 0.0002

0-49: 0.0002

0-49: 0.001

0-49: 0.001

0-49: 0.0005

50-64: 0.001

50-64: 0.001

50-64: 0.006

50-64: 0.006

50-64: 0.002

65+: 0.006

65+: 0.006

65+: 0.032

65+: 0.032

65+: 0.013

Overall: 0.002

Overall: 0.002

Overall: 0.010

Overall: 0.010

Overall: 0.0



SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
25 May 2020, 20:35
#25
25 May 2020, 20:35#25
I have seen different charts of death rates by age.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

According to this one - people over 45 are also at significant risk. 

Age of Coronavirus Deaths

We are collecting and analyzing the data from all US States. In the meantime, below we show the data provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:

This chart is New york Death by Age.

AGENumber of Deaths
Share of deathsWith underlying conditionsWithout underlying conditionsUnknown if with underlying cond.Share of deaths
of unknown + w/o cond.0 - 17 years old90.06%6300.02%18 - 44 years old6013.9%476171080.8%45 - 64 years old3,41322.4%2,851724903.7%65 - 74 years old3,78824.9%2,80159826.5%75+ years old7,41948.7%5,23622,18114.3%TOTAL15,230100%11,370 (75%)99 (0.7%)1,551 (24.7%)25.3%
SH
sharkbokCaptain23,209 posts
25 May 2020, 20:37
#26
25 May 2020, 20:37#26
This is UK stats.https://www.ageuk.org.uk/discover/2020/04/understanding-the-statistics-coronavirus/

Deaths by Age in the UK. This is back early April before the peak - but it does show that ages 45-64 are also at serious risk.If you also factor in viral load, getting the R rate down to a low level may also save more lives- rather than just spread the problem out over a longer time.
Underlying conditions are a factor as well. However, about 30% of people aged over 40 are obese -especially in western coutries
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
25 May 2020, 20:50
#27
25 May 2020, 20:50#27

Mozart

May it not be the case that without any real information about the virus a panic was created to damage the world economies that would be difficult to overcome in a normal free market system - while easily manipulated in a command economy like China.   I have some suspicion that is may be a manipulated  attack on free market economies and especially the USA  in a desperate bit to get rid of Trump and get the easily bribed  Democrats in charge in Washington 

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
25 May 2020, 21:01
#28
25 May 2020, 21:01#28

Forget all the stats and figures. Listen to the Dems. They have all the priorities right for coronavirus relief. 


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 21:15
#29
25 May 2020, 21:15#29

  Where comorbidities are known they account for 12571 of 12667 deaths in NY. All but 96 deaths are accounted for by Comorbidities.......less than 1% of deaths occurred in totally healthy people.

And yes there were 523 deaths in those under 44.....but all but 20 of those were in people with comorbidities

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 21:17
#30
25 May 2020, 21:17#30

Mike....no doubt it’s easier for authoritarian societies to have a regimented response. And no doubt the virus has become very political in the States.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
25 May 2020, 21:17
#31
25 May 2020, 21:17#31

SB

The fact is that in April there were approximately 3 000 more deaths that the average was for the period 2015 to 2019. Of those about 2 200 was older than 75 years and in the and in the case of the other 800, 600 was over the age of 65, leaving about 200 in the age group where people normally are employed,  It is a hell of a panic to close down the economy of the country because there was about 200 more people died in April than the average death tole was,

Why they did not try and protect the elderly more effectively and leaving country functioning is beyond me,        

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
25 May 2020, 21:28
#32
25 May 2020, 21:28#32

Mike what is definite is that this was INTENTIONAL. 

What happened MUST BE INVESTIGATED. 

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
25 May 2020, 21:45
#33
25 May 2020, 21:45#33

Mozart

What  SB came up with in the UK should also applies in the USA.   The Democrats scream that there was near to a hundred thousand deaths in the USA,  but is the 100 000 number un addition to the normal number of  deaths during the period  January to April,  

I think it is obvious that the virus has a seriously negative impact in elderly people - especially if they are deliberately exposed to the virus as happened in  New York and Detroit.   One should always be careful with figures  but that  100 000 story seems funny to me.  

Has anybody got a graph  similar to the one SB provided for the period January to April 2020 for the USA ? 

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
25 May 2020, 22:23
#34
25 May 2020, 22:23#34

All is well in processing raw data into stats. 

But how accurate is the raw data? Hopefully more accurate than the MSM’s reporting on the data.

The New York Slimes have run a big article  aimed, once again blaming Trump for each and every death. They even published a list of a 1,000 names from the obituaries of the victims. 

......and then some real investigative journalist started digging into the list. He/she didn’t have to dig too deep. Check the 6th name from the top:


And then check this:



MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
25 May 2020, 23:02
#35
25 May 2020, 23:02#35

Unbelievable!

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
26 May 2020, 08:14
#36
26 May 2020, 08:14#36

Thanks for that chart Moz, will have a better look at it on my office pc today.

Cera, stuff like that keeps popping up. T here is a new app called News Guard that attempts to filter fake news. It's not perfect but certainly a step in the right direction.

I still find it suspicious that NY is the most affected city. Mighty suspicious. 

RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
26 May 2020, 09:07
#37
26 May 2020, 09:07#37

There's a lot more alt-right propaganda in the media and there are more paranoid conspiracy theories out there than there is fake news from the so-called mainstream media . . . and yet it's the same conservative, religious and nationalistic Trumpanzees who are always getting themselves all worked up about untruthful or exaggerated articles in the press, news items on TV and websites on the internet.

I think on this board we have conclusively proved that when you tell the truth about Bozo (like his suggestion of injecting disinfectant into the body to cure coronavirus . . . his calling for reporters to give back "Noble" (sic) prizes . . . his calling the coronavirus a hoax, saying it was all under control and saying it would go miraculously go away) . . . all of those are demonstrably true yet the Trumpanzees either pretend it didn't happen, spin it some other way that suits them or call it all fake news . . . while they themselves churn out the biggest load of unproven and unsubstantiated garbage about things like "Obamagate", the naughty globalists or the Coronavir us pandemic being a hoax.

In summary, it's ironic that the Trumpanzees are squealing about all the fake news when they are the ones spreading it. The rest of us are more than happy to substantiate what we're saying and provide quotes and/or clips where necessary. When we do, the Trumpanzees stick their fingers in their ears, close their eyes and whine even louder . . . as we saw on this very board with the "debate" on injecting disinfectant and Bozo telling the "Noble Committee" to call back the "Noble Prizes" they had allegedly given out to journalists that Bozo doesn't like.

The Trumpanzees treat any news that is even slightly critical of Bozo as "fake news" and no amount of proof will change their minds. As I've said before several times, anything that criticizes Bozo just doesn't register with Trumpanzees.

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
26 May 2020, 12:14
#38
26 May 2020, 12:14#38

“  I think on this board we have conclusively proved that when you tell the truth about Bozo (like his suggestion of injecting disinfectant into the body to cure coronavirus . . . his calling for reporters to give back "Noble" (sic) prizes . . . his calling the coronavirus a hoax, saying it was all under control and saying it would go miraculously go away) . . . all of those are demonstrably true yet the Trumpanzees either pretend it didn't happen, spin it some other way that suits them or call it all fake news . . . “

Hahahaha. FFS, I cannot believe how big a knucklehead you really are for still punting this  

And then you have the nerve to follow it up with this:

“  while they themselves churn out the biggest load of unproven and unsubstantiated garbage about things like "Obamagate", the naughty globalists or the Coronavisus pandemic being a hoax.“

Had it not been so tragic, to see you wobbling around between one piece of BS and the next, it would be funny. 

No wait  it actuality is farking hilarious.


RO
RooinekCaptain18,117 posts
26 May 2020, 12:54
#39
26 May 2020, 12:54#39
"No wait  it actuality is farking hilarious."
I think you meant "actually" and "fucking".
Cowardunce, if you are a low life with a vocabulary that is so limited that you need to use an expletive rather than any one of the literally hundreds of adjectives available to convey the equivalent of "very", then use the fucking expletive, don't dilute it with the infantile "farking". We're not little kids here.  
CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
26 May 2020, 13:10
#40
26 May 2020, 13:10#40

There we go again. I’ve told you before. When you start to get that drippy feeling, go fetch your pacifier and get someone to change that full diaper of yours. 

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