D.O.G.E Summary

Has DOGE Reduced Federal Spending Compared to Trump, Biden, or Obama?

Summary:

Despite aggressive cuts and restructuring led by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration, overall federal spending has not decreased compared to previous administrations. In fact, government outlays have increased, even as DOGE claims significant savings.

DOGE's Promised and Actual Savings

1. DOGE initially promised $2 trillion in savings but has since revised this figure down multiple times, now claiming $160 billion in savings16.
2. Independent analyses and budget experts estimate actual, verifiable savings to be far lower, around $1–2 billion, with some prediction markets expecting only $1 billion in net savings1.
3. Many of DOGE's largest claimed savings lack independent verification, and some are based on questionable or unsubstantiated figures5.

Impact on Government Spending

1. Despite DOGE's downsizing efforts—including shrinking the federal workforce to 1960s levels, shuttering agencies, and slashing foreign aid and education—total federal spending has increased, not decreased6.
2. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, federal spending rose by 6.3% (or $156 billion) in the first four months of the current Trump term compared to the same period the previous year. Adjusted for inflation, this is still an $81.2 billion increase6.
3. The Trump administration's own budget proposal for 2025 includes a $163 billion cut to domestic programs but increases spending on defense and border security, resulting in a net increase in total government outlays2.

Comparison to Biden and Obama Administrations

1. Biden: Oversaw the highest sustained levels of federal spending in U.S. history, with significant increases in both total and non-defense spending3.
2. Obama: Increased spending significantly in response to the Great Recession and health care reform, followed by some deficit reduction through sequestration and tax changes4.

Key Takeaways

1. DOGE has not reduced overall federal spending compared to the Trump, Biden, or Obama administrations. Despite substantial cuts to specific programs and agencies, total government outlays have increased under the current Trump administration16.
2. The scale of claimed savings by DOGE is dwarfed by the overall rise in government spending. Even the most optimistic estimates of DOGE savings are a small fraction of the increased outlays16.
3. Spending priorities have shifted (e.g., less on foreign aid and education, more on defense and border security), but the federal budget as a whole continues to grow26.

In summary, while DOGE has made unprecedented cuts to the federal workforce and certain programs, these actions have not resulted in a net reduction in federal spending compared to the Biden or Obama years—in fact, federal spending is up16.

Federal spending is up by $16…gosh that’s unacceptable,