Down with the Lockdown

Really guy?

Are you aware that just yesterday a UN report came out. It said that this lockdown will double world hunger.

You are aware that there are food riots in SA, already?

Are you aware that hunger kills everyone but mainly children...and the sick.

You are aware that the knock-on effect of all this will cost even more lives, for years to come, while potentially also resulting in war?

Are you aware that right now, even if everyone on earth gets CORONA, the artificial recession you're peddling will kill more people. Abundantly more.

Keep referring to Trump and people that are questioning the lockdown as stupid. Far be it for me to ask you too even attempt to look at the bigger picture.

The fact is, as numbers guy, you are either ignoring the numbers or you're just not a very good at them.

Those hillbillies, right now, look a lot more able to see the wood from the trees than you do.

Now take your lame ass meme and feed it to your chocolate starfish.

Meeeow

Well said Plum.

Sometime or another most people will get the virus. The lockdowns are little more than a very costly delaying tactic. 30 Days in and South Africa is on its knees and even medical experts see no further point in continuing our lockdown.

Delaying is the point. The longer we can delay the virus the more hospital beds will be available for people who need them.

Yes, easy for us to say that from inside our middle class homes with our stocked fridges. Here is the reality elsewhere.

More people will starve as a result of the lockdown.  I am sorry - but the lockdown is on its own a problem.  The fact is that the elderly end the serious ill people with one foot on the grave and the other on a banana peel are severely hit by the virus perhaps bringing forward slightly earlier departure from our midst.   Nasty to say - but that is a fact,

Starvation has many more long term and short term ruinous health implications and even though the virus could be and is dangerous - the choice is which calamity would have worse implications. My view is that starvation is the one.      

  .     

"Delaying is the point. The longer we can delay the virus the more hospital beds will be available for people who need them."

Most of us get the theory, but we disagree with the effectiveness of this method in South Africa and other densely populated poor countries. You cannot do a prolonged complete shutdown without totally destroying the economy ...the ensuing famine will potentially kill more than the virus will. There are other ways of managing risk groups in a way that can prevent high loss of life, ways that are not even explored.

Anyone telling me that social distancing is possible  in a poor township, consisting mostly of thousands of "sinkplaat-hokkie-shacks", is either a fool or have absolutely no idea about the hard realities of this country.  

Rooi ,

Do the numbers.

How many beds are there? 6.5k beds in SA, public and private.

What is the size of SA's population? 55+ million

How many people need beds? 5%(roughly) of those infected.

How long does someone who needs a bed hold that bed for? No less than 4 days.

Now, how long will we need to be on lockdown for in order to not be situation where somebody that needs a bed doesn't get one.

Years, is the answer...

5% of a population 50 million is 2.5 million.

2.5 million / 6.5 thousand beds = 384 cycles. Each bed sees 384 patients.

384 x 4 days = 1538 days of lockdown required. About 4 years.

Double the amount of beds and we can bring lockdown down by half,  to 769 days. 2 years.

So, how much time is this actually buying? 

It's the equivalent of getting discount on a steering wheel so you buy it despite the fact that you'll never be able to afford the car. And that money you wasted could have bought you a few Uber journeys instead.

But sure, let's rag on the hillbillies.

I watched this this video a few days ago after finding it on FB on some organization or charity's page, can't remember which. Watch it for some eye openers about lockdowns, particularly the knock-on effect they have, in specifically poor and developing countries. A lot of what Plum said above.

We won’t know if the lockdown is the best option until all the numbers are in. Sweden which is adopting a more open approach has a cases per million well below the European average....but they do have a high death rate.

Florida which is the US equivalent of Sweden is doing as well as almost any US state. They have focused on protecting the vulnerable....testing workers in old age homes and generally being very protective of older people, while allowing younger people to enjoy the beaches.

Focus on the vulnerable....maybe that’s the answer.

South Carolina has had no lockdown and their figures are not bad at all.  They have gone the Florida way,

There is something SB missed out on.   Trump is following strictly the advice of the experts advising him and has laid down guidelines for relaxing of the lockdown and re-opening of the US economy,   Whatsoever the Governors decide on to implement rests entirely with them.    

As too lockdowns in theory he can interfere - but he never did.  The responsibility for lock downs   remains with the Governors and Fredo Cuomo buggered up badly - turning New York in the Mortuary State of the USA,  As to lockdowns - Trump only expressed opinions based on advice from the experts,     

"They have focused on protecting the vulnerable....testing workers in old age homes and generally being very protective of older people, while allowing younger people to enjoy the beaches.

Focus on the vulnerable....maybe that’s the answer."

This option has not been explored nearly enough...and, like Snark said, if we can have the ones who already had it confirmed by testing, they can return to work too...just shutting the whole world down for months on end is a recipe for desaster. Manage the thing from a logical, practical point of view.

I haven't had a flu shot in my life and I've been really sick with influenza maybe 3 times in my entire life. I'll take my chances with this bat-flu rather than face definite financial ruin...and I'm quite sure I'm not in the minority. 

I can survive quite a few months, but the South African economy was in tatters before Corona...we can't afford this too...and if lots of companies fold and people lose their life savings in the wink of an eye, things will be much worse.

You can’t allow the Generals to decide when to go to war...and while the medical advice is important, this decision is a balance of health risks and econ omic risks, it can’t be made by virologists.

So far the best weapon in the war is social distancing. Telling people the virus will miraculously disappear is counterproductive, as they will not take the threat seriously. 

SB

With distruction of the economy and starvation in some countries becoming a worse nightmare, 

At the time Trump made that remark there were no known coronavirus  cases in the USA and the WHO assured people that transmission from one human to another does not occur,   When he became aware that China and the WHO were lying and the virus reached Japan, he closed the border for entry of people from China.   The Democrats called him a racist and Pelosi went to Chinatown to show solidarity with the Chinese because of the racist conduct of Trump.

Next step - Trump cancelled entry from EU countries and the UK and New York encouraged people to continue with their normal activities.  School remained open and community meetings were encouraged.   Believe it or not they took Trump to court on the issue,    When the real issue became more pressing as a result of escalating deaths they at last banned public meetings and closed schools by means of a lockdown.

The result was that New York - the great sanctuary city state - became the Mortuary State of the USA,  Why should Trump take the blame for the New York fiasco?     

.         

Your guesses has always been wrong.    

Yep pretty soon weather will affect the virus. How do we know that? Well because warm states include many Republican governed states and they are doing better than the Dem East. Ergo temperature has to be the answer, right? It can’t be competence.

Within the context of Coronavirus, competence can be defined as how effectively social distancing is applied (in a country- or specific cities  and states). Their are no other skills to beat Coronavirus at this stage. 

Countries, states and cities that are more densely populated are more challenging to apply social distancing. These places also happen to be the portal for international travelers into and out of their countries, as well as national travelers. 

So London and New York were always going to be hit faster and harder. Throw in the factor of temperature as a variable, and their is some luck as to where gets hit the worst. 

In the US the Southern States are more Republican - they are also less densely populated and warmer. 

Where as Democratic States are more city based, and more Northern (Colder America). 

Unless God is protecting the Republic states...these are the explanations (and no CleverWanker - New York is not doing worse because it is Democratic). 

You mean like Tokyo?

But at 2 deaths per million and 64 cases per million Japan with a major city like Tokyo is way ahead of  most other countries. NY and London have questions to answer.

Sure = I agree with you = especially when it comes to as far as I can remember 37 000  homeless people living on the sidewalks in New York and doing and shitting and pissing on the sidewalks as well.  New York provide no assistance to them, but as a sanctuary city they provide accommodation for illegal migrants,   How many of the virus problem  came from them is another issue.  

No tell me dimness while the city with its dense population was threatened, why did they not introduced social distancing early on -  why did they try and take Trump to court when he closed the entry into the USA and attack Trump  all-out?   Why against all advice did they encourage people to attend events and meetings?   Why were they very late in locking down the place?

Population Numbers     

New York       =      8 400 000 

London           =      8 786 000

Tokyo             =      11 285 000

Number of  Infections

New York       =      263 460

London           =        22 352

Tokyo             =          3 906

Number of  Deaths 

New York       =        15 740

London           =          4 431

Tokyo             =               91

The above figures confirm  - New York buggered up badly in handling the situation and i t was largely due to Democrat vicious maladministration         

Sources? Anytime I check your stats they are bullshit. Provide web links or you just pulled those numbers from your arse as usual...

Here is a chart that took me 1 minute to find in Google. (It is worth noting that cities always have higher % of homelessness - and that is the case in most first world countries). 

https://www.security.org/resources/homeless-statistics/

Larger states (more people) will of course also have a higher amount of homeless. 

There is a website on each city and the position of the Coronovirues situation in the cities updated on a daily basis - you can google it if you want to   Thanks for updating the homeless situation I read previously that it was 37 000 - it is a disgrace that it is fact virtually  92 000 people in New York living on the sidewalks of that city,    The California is divided into two cities - Los Angeles and San Francisco.  

There will be homeless people in cities  but in the US it is always in cities run by the Democrats - they do not care a hell for the poor anyway.  In SA they have provide at least 2,5 million inadequate homes for the poor - in the wealthy Democrat-run cities they have done fuck-all.    They provide housing for illegal migrants whom they get to vote fraudulently for them in elections and have given up on the homeless  for voting for them.   That is all they want from people.

Like you with your redneck name calling, they are snobs thinking only how much they can enrich themselves through bribery and corruption.   Clinton started it - he was penniless when he became President and is now worth over $200 million - Bush was already wealthy but he continued with it enriching his family and friends - Obama took the Zuma route and the amount was ten times more than Zuma and the Guptas benefitted from bleeding the country dry,   The evidence was always there - but like Zuma did the three rogue Presidents appointed rogues to prevent investigations by the FBI and Justice Departments.  One can indeed say a new breed of the Mafia took over governing  of the country,   That is why they do not care for ordinary people at all and an old hag like Pelosi can brag in front of a $24 000 fridge how she stocked up for the close down.

A rich country driven into poverty by rogues stealing anything they can lay their hands on and you are a great admirer of them.   Unfortunately they were  so blatant that they sent each other e-mails on what they did, and Wikileaks got hold of it,   So the FBI said they cannot investigate anything based on "stolen" documents,    When they were forced to get the computers to look at some aspects as to bribery and corruption the FBI tipped off Clinton and she destroyed the hard drives  of the computers she used.   

However, you talked  about the situation relating to the virus and when figures were given you went quiet on the issue,  So what is wrong with the situation in New York compared to other similar cities of equal size or even bigger in the world.- you went quiet about it.   Why?      . 

Dup lication

New York is 9th largest. Paris 29, London 32.

And according to this article none of the US cities are in the top 50 most densely populated in the world...odd, unless I've missed something. 

Sharkvirus is as thick as a plank. 

I am convinced the jackass doesn't read posts where the facts presented destroy his absurd views. So he comes up with with the same old totally debunked garbage.