Fellow Republicans, it’s time to admit that the US economy isn’t bad - Story by Gene Marks

The Republican primaries are under way and – not surprisingly – the candidates have been ganging up on Bidenomics. Spoiler alert: they don’t like it. Fact check: they are wrong.

Related: Top US economists are often wrong – should we trust their predictions? | Gene Marks

To a man – and one woman – the Republican candidates all say that the US economy is bad and that Americans are struggling financially. They’re warning about sky-high deficits, over-the-top government spending and a potentially catastrophic level of national debt. They point out that interest rates are at a 20-year high and the costs of core things like food, gas and housing are significantly more than they were just a few years ago. They point to a downturn in manufacturing and falling small business confidence.

“Bidenomics is crushing American families,” said the Republican candidate Nikki Haley. “We’re paying more for gas, groceries and other basic necessities.”

“I’ll rip up Bidenomics on day one of my presidency,” the Florida governor and presidential challenger Ron DeSantis warned.

Yes, prices and rates are up. But really? Is the economy so bad? I’m a Republican and a small business owner with hundreds of clients in many industries and honestly the economy isn’t that bad. In fact, it’s been really, really good.

Just ask Donald Trump, who implicitly admitted this when he recently said he hoped for a “crash” and that it would “be in the next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover”.

If you don’t believe me, just look at the numbers.

Last quarter’s gross domestic product showed growth of 5.2%. That’s a number that dwarfs all other pre-Covid recovery numbers in recent memory. Unemployment is at a record low. Each month the economy is adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs. There are millions of more open jobs available today compared with 2019.

Yes, prices are higher, but inflation is down from a 9% annual rate to about 3%, so whatever the Federal Reserve did to offset the treasury’s spending on fiscal programs seems to be working. The stock market is near all-time highs, as is household wealth. Credit card delinquency rates are lower than they’ve been for the past 30 years as are delinquencies on all loans across the banking system. Holiday retail sales were strong and online sales boomed. Plenty of capital is available for businesses that need it and corporations have more cash on hand than in any year before the pandemic.

I speak to dozens of industry associations each year and here’s what I’m hearing: just about everyone had a good 2023. The CEOs of our major banks reported strong earnings, after taking into consideration special assessments and one-time charges. Retailers and restaurants have recovered from the pandemic. Convention traffic in Vegas is back to normal. There are almost as many travelers through the airports as there were before Covid. Businesses in the service industries recorded their 12th consecutive month of growth.

Sure, there are struggles. Businesses in the real estate industry are challenged by high housing prices and a 13-year low in home sales. Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past 14 months. Media companies are flailing. Technology firms are struggling to find financing. The cost of capital is slowing down financing for small businesses. However, we live in a giant country. California’s economy is as large as that of the entire United Kingdom. North Carolina’s economy is bigger than Sweden’s. Texas’s is bigger than Canada’s. Not every business is going to be doing well in an economy this size. There will always be those that are struggling, be it because of their location, their industry, or the makeup of their customer and supplier base.

There are plenty of things that could knock things off course in 2024. Wars. Oil prices. A terrorist attack. Another pandemic. If you want to find the bad in the economy you can do it. And that’s what all the Republican candidates are doing and fair enough, it’s an election year. It’s also true that Bidenomics may not be the reason behind our strong economy. But saying the US economy is bad just isn’t true no matter who you vote for.

But restaurants are full, people are traveling, house prices are still high…..the traditional Republican economic argument may nor work this time.

You forget to mention a key election driver. ... Unemployment is at a record low . 

Pretty much the same here in Oz. House prices, mortgage rates and rent have gone ballistic.

Naah People see him as old and generally weak, most desire a strong leader both physically and mentally.

Ditto NZ ..................House prices, mortgage rates and rent have gone ballistic.

eggs $10 doz   petrol $3 litre , wots that $14 gallon

Sounds like Biden nomics is a winner.

Denny

If you believe that  you will also believe the moon is made of green cheese.    Fact is that since Biden took over food prices have gone up by as much as 23% - the increase this year was lower than in the two previous years, but that does not help the 49 million US citizens suffering from food insecurity in the USA.    

There are over a million people living in tents on sidewalks in US cities because housing is not available to help them - many of them being people with mental problems.    

The people who claim the economy is booming  base their arguments on returnms on the stock exchange - but the middle class and working class are at least 20% worse off than they were in 2019.    Bidenomics are not working - take for instance the number of employees in industrial production - in 2019 before Covid that figure was 12,9 million people - at present it ss 13 million people.    In other words no growth at all.    What is worse is that the income rates of working class people increased by 4% - with food and housing  inflation being 23% and 32%, respectively.

Biden approval rating as to Bidenomics is according to opinion polls 26%  - so it is not working when it comes to the ordinary middle and working class voters.   That is why Biden's chances of re-election is near to zero.   

I do not know where you get that report from - I saw the full comment  of  Marc Zandi Mozart is quoting.- but again he is looking at shareholders only.                                  

His approval rating hints at the fact that most Americans are at least smart enough to realize that a guy who can't find his way off a stage without assistance is probably not fit to run the USA.

Careful with the images you post on site.   It rsembles what you may klook like after the November elec tion.   

"His approval rating hints at the fact that most Americans are at least smart enough to realize that a guy who can't find his way off a stage without assistance is probably not fit to run the USA"

Careful Pakie......some people seem to believe that the American people don't know anything about what is actually going on in their own country.

Careful Pakie......some people seem to believe that the American people don't know anything about what is actually going on in their own country.

And some people like misrepresenting others. I clearly said the effects on inflation where very real to the American people. Its the causes of inflation are misunderstood and often misrepresented for political gain and that phenomenon isn't restricted to the US.

Well there were many causes…..supply chain disruptions, the Ukraine war, excessive  stimulus.

But it’s pretty clear, we ended up with the high inflation because the Fed with their hundreds of economics PhDs misread the signals and thought the causes were temporary..

The moment they started raising interest rates inflation reversed course. So the Biden team is twice culpable. Firstly for over stimulating. Hell they were still handing out money for political favors when the Fed was raising rates

And while the Fed is independent, there wasn’t once the Administration pushed for tightening monetary conditions. 

But it’s wrong to blame Biden for all this …he was clueless about economics even when he had all his marbles.

"And some people like misrepresenting others"

Yeah .... pretty much like you did with Trump and NATO .... although I do stand corrected... that wasn't misrepresentation from you, that was just blatant dishonesty.

Put the glasses back on sunshine.....come on ...... do it

Here’s a story that illustrates that Plum. As a young chap I was moved to another division, with a President who I was told, was in the habit of  calling meetings at 7.00 am.

It seemed pretty draconian, but I set the alarm and got to the meeting room just before 7.00. The door was closed and I walked in relieved to have made it on time.  But the meeting was already in progress. 

Embarrassed I asked a colleague if I’d got the time wrong. No, he told me. The 7.00 am is just an indication.The meeting starts when the person who called it walks through the door. A fifteen minute buffer was assumed.

Americans worked incredibly hard up until COVID. But the work from home restriction changed that to some extent. Time will tell, but my guess is that’s only temporary.

A rather important aspect of the America economy tends generally to go unsung.

Work ethic.

All things being equal, a place with the US's work ethic will always outstrip Europe, almost anywhere else.

There's a general perception that the Yanks just cruise by and rest on generation laurels....which is completely untrue.

I've no idea who has the best work ethic, but I've never had the perception American's are lazy or just cruise around nor do I think its common perception outside of them outside America.

In fact it might be the opposite. That they haven't got the right work/life balance. Same with Japan.

klop

"In fact it might be the opposite. That they haven't got the right work/life balance. Same with Japan."

...and China and Korea...still better than Africa where the balance is off to the opposite...there are simply not enough jobs to be close to balance...