California is entering the fourth month of what is typically the rainy season, but in the Southland, the landscape is beginning to show signs of drought.
The last time Los Angeles recorded rainfall over a tenth of an inch — the threshold that officials typically consider helpful for thirsty plants and the reduction of wildfire risk — was May 5, when downtown received just 0.13 inches of rain.
“It’s safe to say this is [one of] the top ten driest starts to our rainy season on record,” said Ryan Kittell, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard. “Basically, all the plants are as dry as they normally are in October.”
California’s wet season can run from October to April, although most of the precipitation occurs from December to February.
Current forecasts show little hope that a needed storm could develop in the next few weeks, and the Southern California landscape — ripe for wildfire and never far from chronic water shortages — is paying the price.
Much of the region, including the majority of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties, has fallen into moderate drought conditions, according to a U.S. Drought Monitor map released this week. The last time the Southland saw similarly dry conditions was in early 2023, as the state was exiting a punishing, years-long drought thanks to an exceptional kickoff to the wet season.
Prior to the recent drought report, conditions in Southern California were considered to be “abnormally dry” for the last few weeks. Much of the Central Valley remains in that category.
“Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in expansion of drought in Arizona, California and Nevada,” the new report said.
The latest long-range forecasts show Southern California remaining in a below-average rainfall pattern for the entire month of January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. And drier conditions appear to be in store statewide beginning next week through mid-January, marking a shift for Northern California in particular, where the season started with bouts of heavy rain and snow.
“Southern California remains dry,” said Michael Anderson, state climatologist for the Department of Water Resources. “We’re being watchful right now. The [snowpack] numbers in the Central and Southern Sierra aren’t where we want them, and certainly the outlooks are not favoring much growth here in January.”
That lack of rain is likely to coincide next week with another offshore wind event in Southern California, Kittell said, which could be potentially damaging.
“Typically we see, at this time of year, close to 4 inches of rain, which would usually be enough to squash any significant fire weather concerns,” Kittell said. “But because we haven’t had anything close to that, and because we’ve had a really active two years [of plant growth] ... there’s a lot to burn.”
He said more red flag warnings are likely to be issued, which were in place in December when the Franklin fire in Malibu broke out, and in November when the Mountain fire tore through southern Ventura County.