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Oxford Professor believes vaccine for Corona Virus will be available in September.

Started by sharkbok4 REPLIES187 VIEWS· 11 Apr 2020, 18:14
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MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
11 Apr 2020, 19:47
#2
11 Apr 2020, 19:47#2

I’d have a lot more faith in J&J......the British Health Care system is currently performing at the Italy/Spain level.

SH
sharkbok
Captain23,210 posts
SH
sharkbokCaptain23,210 posts
11 Apr 2020, 20:12
#3
11 Apr 2020, 20:12#3
I see J&J is also saying September. 
I wonder if these organisations are sharing their data, or it is the Coronavirus space race to see who can do it first. There will be lots of Kudos to whichever company and county can do it first. 
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-a-lead-vaccine-candidate-for-covid-19-landmark-new-partnership-with-u-s-department-of-health-human-services-and-commitment-to-supply-one-billion-vaccines-worldwide-for-emergency-pandemic-use
SH
sharkbok
Captain23,210 posts
SH
sharkbokCaptain23,210 posts
11 Apr 2020, 20:35
#4
11 Apr 2020, 20:35#4
The British Healthcare system is probably performing worse than Italy. Certainly fewer hospital beds by population ratio.  Although the death rate could also be down to external factors like past vaccines taken etc - that may help the immune system against Corona. 

The NHS is good - but it is under-budgeted. The private healthcare system seems to be favoured by the conservative government to reduce cost, although even under labour it was not much different.  
However, there has always been solid innovation from the UK. Smaller population than the US for sure, but there are some good resources. 
The US had 2000 deaths per day recently as the highest figure to the UK 1000 highest figure, but the US population is much bigger- so statically US is doing better. Although they might be at an earlier stage in the curve than the UK. 
MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
12 Apr 2020, 00:19
#5
12 Apr 2020, 00:19#5

Remove the 8000 deaths in NY state, and remove it’s population from US figures.....and your 20000 US deaths drops to 12000 in a revised population on 310 million. And the death rate drops to 39 per million, very similar to lauded Germany at 34 per million.

NY State on it’s own has a death per million rate of 400 .....worse than Spain, worse than Italy.


The underperformance occurred in NY......a very dense city....in a state under Democratic control. It’s easy to point fingers. But I believe much of the bewildering statistical  variation comes from underlying causes.....eg the degree of major urbanization, poverty levels, the age of the population etc. 


The obesity rate in the US, for example, is 36% vs 22% in Germany.....a vast difference in population at risk.



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