South African Election 2024

While a lot of news are being circulated in the media about elections in 2024 and 2035 very little is written about S outh Africa's own election in 2024.   The election is due by no later than August 2024 and an election day is yet to be determined and gazetted.

In the latest opinion polls the ANC support has dropped to 38% - it waas 42% a year ago with - with support for the EFF growing  markedly and the D A  stagnating.

The worst performing province of the ANC is surprisingly not the Western Cape - but in KwaZulu-Matal - wh ere support for the ANC dropped from 61% in the 2019 election to 52% in the 2021 municipal election.   In the latest opinion polls there support is given as 26%.

There are 2 unknown factors at present,   Those are that 15% of the voters refuse to answer who they are going to vote for in the upcoming election - but in past opinion polls checking of actual voting  patterns in 2019 and 2021 - those not indicating their support at present more than 80% voted against the ANC.   Another factor is that over the past weekend there wa a country-wide voter registration campaign and 1 800 000 nedw registrations took place country-wide.   It is not sure for whom those new voters are going to vote.

Unlike in the USA South Afrian opinion polls are markedly accurate to predict election outcomes - so it is clear the ANC will lose their majority in Parliament and end up being forced into a coalition Government.       

In essense it means that the ANC will lose their majorities in Parliament - but remain the party with most seats in Parliament.   So they will have to form a coalition Government.    The question will be whether the ANC would go for a coalition with the Democratic Alliance or the EFF.     Forming an alliance with the EFF would be a disaster for the country.

The only thing under those circumstances that si an absolute requirement  would be to keep Deputy Secretary of State  Nuland out of SA in the period July to Setmber 2024.   She will promote another civil war like she did successfully in Ukraine.

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SB

You may be correct - but I think that the EFF has some serious problems as well.   In essense Mbeki will be very much the man determining what happens as to the future coalition Government.      The problem is the Zulus - being the majority tribe in  SA  at one st age was the majority supporter of  the ANC when Zuma was the president.    The A NC  started off as a Xhosa party and got the support  of the Zulus when Zuma took over the leadership of the ANC.

The EFF was basically the party who got support from the Pedi's and Vendas  - bit the EFF also has  an image problem  and that relates to corruption of the Venda bank based largely in Limpopo and in  Mpumalanga,    Thousands of people lost their money when the  bank went belly-up with the loans of huge amounts of money to the EFF  leadership and never recovered.

What I think could happen is that the US A  may meddle in SA since it is the country still regarded as a leading country in A frica and  having  an illegal migrant population of circa 25% of the total population in SA,    At the start of the Ukraine War the US Secretary of State Blinken turned up in Pretoria to try and convince the SA Government to support the USA on the Ukraine issue - was given a lecture on negotiation to solve problems and sent packing by Mrs Pandor.   Since then Deputy Secretary of State Nuland  was in SA  - but totally ignored by the media and not dealing with the Government on official basis.

There are one element that is very clear in both the Democratic Party in the USA and the ANC and EFF and that is inherent corruption using Government resources to enrich themselves.   The danger is the present USA Government may become involved in kingmaking  aimed at maximum control over the said Government and for that an ANC and  EFF Alliance will be advisable by the USA  Government - they can buy those two parties support by bribing the leadership of both parties,   The probable EFF and  ANC alliance will not be encouraged by either the Chinese supported by the Indian and Russian Governments  - who are more interested in an alliance of business and the functioning  of the country as an economic base in Africa and while Ramaphosa is around they will rather support Rupert and Motsepe in striving for an alliance between the ANC and the DA ,  because they would know that the EFF could ruin the country even further than it is at present.   Both those three  countries will not support an alliance  involving the EFF.

In SA the present situation looks bleak and distrust of foreign interference is  one isue that would be unwelcome - but inevitable.    .   

In any event we can expect chaos irrespective of who Govern the country after the situation is wide open for foreign meddling  by the USA on the one side and BRICS on the other side.   

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