The Ball is in Russia's Court: Accept 30 Day Ceasefire

I see the US ambassadors are saying that now it is up to Russia to accept the 30 day cease fire, or it will prove they are not serious about negotiations

That would be a very good start if it happens. I'm not sure if it's true but apparently Putin has repeatedly said that Russia will not be making any concessions.

Should be a good indicator of where Russia is

"That would be a very good start if it happens. I'm not sure if it's true but apparently Putin has repeatedly said that Russia will not be making any concessions."

lol

Denny

You read so much negative things about Trump that eflects a compltely different appoach towards negotiations wih other counries and he always put the interests of he USA aboee anybody else's ,interests,

So it is not easy to negotiate with Trump on any issuem H will be frindly and calm and tell meeting attendentss that he would implement things which he will do if fhe negotiations does not find solutions.

First phase of the ukraine process

By now Putin knows exactly what Trumps stand on the issue of ending the War. Similarly Traump knows exactly what Putin wantsm In that process there are two aspcts and those are -

1. issues on which their are agreement and those are regarded as final and can be incorporated in the envisaged peac erety; and
2. Areas where the two parties dffer and the first comments is exchanged where concessions can be made - and in severe case where negotiation partners cannot agree on anything

Second Phase of the negotiation process

The above process will be followed up by comments and recommendations In the folow-up there will then be the same situation the reasons by both parties will try and get minor concesssions. In some cases relevant minor concesssions may be agreed on by both sides and the parts of where afreement - eg the need for a nee Constitution for Ukraine to be approved by the voters in a referendum . All the cases where agreement could not be reached the problem documents will thentogether with those from Stage one will then be handled by

Third Phase

Th greements reached thus far is redy or incrporation in the Final Agreement - and the lwers on both side will strt of delivering of the drft peeaca treaty,

In other words his is where Putin and Trump are ivolved in and that is where an agrement will be finally reached, This is where he hard talk would start, So whatevefr is in the mdedia are a best gues words, Unlik he media shouts about Trump is not an easy person to negoate aythin g with and h will not give in on Putin's demands,

I reckon Putin will stall for a few days, then say yes but only on conditions x, y and z which he knows the Ukrainians won't agree too in the hope that Trump will then blame Ukraine.

The price of oil is dropping...Putin's ATM is gonna run out of money.

The West should have produced more oil to put Putin out of business. The sanctions were a disaster and pushed the price of oil up: supply/demand. So even if Putin sold less oil, he made more sales profit.

Exactly...it's not rocket science.

The West doesn’t produce oil, companies do. And the oil industry has been facing an existential political threat. The markets want these companies to follow the tobacco game plan…..reduce investment and return capital to shareholders.

Not exactly the conditions which lend themselves to a temporary, costly ramp up of production to drive down the price of what you are selling.

Apparently Putin is accepting the ceasefire and wants to talk directly to Trump about it

These things change on an hourly basis so let's see what happens

I'll be pleasantly surprised if he accepts a 30 day ceasefire. It must hurt him to have failed to win the war with a bruised ego he now has to settle for a negotiated settlement. But here's hoping to the end of a stupid war.

A ccording to Al Jazeera - quite an independent source Putin has accepted the ceasefire conditions but sbject to finding a solution to end the war within 30 days the ceasefire would last.

So stage one of the enotiations have bee achieved and now satates wo and hree can be completed as well, There will be some sticking points here I think the sticky points will relate to teritorial claims. veyone knows that the Crima is not going to be an ecuse to contr=inuethe war - bobody wants to seee another wa starting over he Cimea and atmeans there will be no areemen about Criea going back to be part of Rssia,

The sticking points that will remain are whether Russia would get the terrirtory never occupied since 2014 by the Ukraine Army abd let to the Civil war starting in 20014. That lesaves open the questions of a strip along the East border of the Uklraine wher a ne reaty will have to focus on to try and find a solution, The Civil war in Easten Ukraine will probably be reverting back to Russia - while terriroties claimed diirectly by the Russians may revent back to Ukraine, That means a strip of demiliterize part of the territary captured by the Rusians inclusive of Mariopol. army would remain the main territory at present ontrolled by the Russians will remaoin part of Ukraine bar a strip of land not under Kiev comtroll since 2015 will not go back to Uraine. That is part of the Luhansk, Donetz and Kerson oblast up to the mouth of the River where the dam was blwn up by the Ukraine Government will remain part of Russia basically a strip of land about a third of the territory basically bordering the Asov Sea will revert to Russia, In oher words Ukraine would lose about 15% of the area bordering Russia with the rest remaining part of Ukraine - but it will largely depend on a new Constitution of Ukraine that will indicate the way forward as to the revised border of the Luhanks Oblast the Dnetz oblast and the Kerson Oblast,

The problem is the majority of the people living in the area does not trust the Ukraine Government to stop their anti Russian speaking actions aabd threads to use ethnic cleansing of Russians from the said area. So both Ukraine and Russia will change slightly to ensure that Russia has direct land access to the Crimea which they doi not have at present. It is that 15% that will be th e future sticking points of the final peace plan. The Russians moved 3,5 million wioman and cildren out of the War zone and those people will have a say whether they want to be part of the Ukraine or be part of Russia. The other sticking point will be the issue of a new Federal constitution of Ukraine . .

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As expected Putin gave a half hearted yes but no answer.

How can the ceasefire be half-hearted? The Ceasefire was for 30 days anyway and the conditions set is to get the the peace treaty accepted by both sides prepared over the next month. - but whether Uklraine will abide b y the cesaefire conditions are debatable - since the present Ukraine Regime may not want peace in the hope thast the US A will keep Ukraine going fianancially, - the onduct of Zelenskyy at the Washibngton meet was a disaster casued by Zelenskyy and the U SA wiill not be asupporting the BS if Ukraine breaks the ceaefire agrement,

I hope the EU countries will place observers to see where breaches occur, and the Ukraine Gpvernment try to wotdrew from the Kursk Oblast in Russia, In Washington it ws clear that Zelenskyy want a peace agremeent that Zelenskyy would prescribed to all countries what the peace agreement will entail and that obviously is not acceptable as measures and that will not be acceptable as a lasting peace agreement. In the meantime Zelenskyy will have to accept a new Constitution for Ukraine and that will preent serious problems for him and his cronies,

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asdfg

I am begining to understand some of Biden's conduct in relation to Ukraine and China is concerned. Both had the documents as to Biden's involvement in corruption in both countries. In the case of China the famous balloon system waas used to get detailed photos of US Army basis to Beijing and travelled and it travelled from a major base to another major army base. The presence of the balloon was known for 14 days in the USA and then when it went over the coast the mission of the balloon was completed and at last Bden gave permission to the ballon be destroyed. Biden knew that he mission over the USA was a decisio by the Chinese Government special mission and Biden did nothing to stop the balloon project of the Chinese - so why should that have been?'

I tehe case of Zelenskyy the situation was as clear as daylight - whenever Zelenskyy wanted more US funds he would end u in Washington where he had a tiraade in the office of Biden and suddenly Money was provided to Ukraine, Amazing really - and the reason is both has docuements showing Biden family coruption and he fear always was that they may end up exposing such documents that would send the family in jail and Biden without a job and into jail himself, The FBI and Justice Department ould have kniwn what was happening and that allowed them in their own way control Biden as well, But then it benefit the Regime as well, It also allow the F BI to spy on 278 000 of opponents and potential opponents of the Biden regime The 278 000 figure was provided by the FIS court - but accirding to whisleblower report the actual apying was done on about 1.3 million people by the FBI,

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I am begining to understand some of Biden's conduct in relation to Ukraine and China is concerned. Both had the documents as to Biden's involvement in corruption in both countries. In the case of China the famous balloon system waas used to get detailed photos of US Army basis to Beijing and travelled and it travelled from a major base to another major army base. The presence of the balloon was known for 14 days in the USA and then when it went over the coast the mission of the balloon was completed and at last Bden gave permission to the ballon be destroyed. Biden knew that he mission over the USA was a decisio by the Chinese Government special mission and Biden did nothing to stop the balloon project of the Chinese - so why should that have been?'

I tehe case of Zelenskyy the situation was as clear as daylight - whenever Zelenskyy wanted more US funds he would end u in Washington where he had a tiraade in the office of Biden and suddenly Money was provided to Ukraine, Amazing really - and the reason is both has docuements showing Biden family coruption and he fear always was that they may end up exposing such documents that would send the family in jail and Biden without a job and into jail himself,

The FBI and Justice Department ould have kniwn what was happening and that allowed them in their own way control Biden as well, But then it benefit the Regime as well, It also allow the F BI to spy on 278 000 of opponents and potential opponents of the Biden regime The 278 000 figure was provided by the FIS court - but accirding to whisleblower report the actual apying was done on about 1.3 million people by the FBI, Cleanig up of the FBI is and was absolutely necessary,

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