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FORUM / MIKES GRIPES /  The Economist’s model is showing a 68% chance of Trump winning

The Economist’s model is showing a 68% chance of Trump winning

Started by Mozart13 REPLIES4,460 VIEWS· 13 Jun 2024, 14:44
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MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
13 Jun 2024, 14:44
#1
13 Jun 2024, 14:44#1

This is not a poll, it’s a model that predicts results based on the polls out there and computer simulations. It’s showing the national polls about even but Trump with an advantage in the swing states. 


To me this is interesting but not persuasive. The Dems will get their act together as they did last time. But the first debate could be the nail in the coffin if they can’t get Joe to function. He did in the State of the Union. Can they prop him up again? 

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
13 Jun 2024, 14:53
#2
13 Jun 2024, 14:53#2

Interesting. 

Have you looked into Dr Alan Lichtman 13 keys to the White House. He successfully predicted 9 out of the last 10 election results (and technically he got the popular vote right on the one he didn't successfully predict)

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,196 posts
13 Jun 2024, 15:02
#3
13 Jun 2024, 15:02#3
This could be accurate. Biden may win the popular vote, but appears to be losing in all or most of the Swing states.
The Biden adminsitration should have put Trump in jail when they had a chance. If Trump wins, he will certainly put them in jail. 

Inflation may have been the main thing, as well as Hunter Biden sagas - but Biden is just too old as well. He should have handed the reigns over to Gavin Newsam.

If I was Biden, I would ensure Trump is put in jail next month for the hush money trial.
Then Biden could say he is retiring from being the president, and call another election to run the primaries again before the presidential. 

That will be the end of Trump and Biden in politics, and give the US another chance to choose a president. (Left or right that is not Biden or Trump).
Their is too much ditry laundry with these 2, a fresh start is needed.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
13 Jun 2024, 19:51
#4
13 Jun 2024, 19:51#4

"If I was Biden, I would ensure Trump is put in jail next month for the hush money trial."


You're joking, right?

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
13 Jun 2024, 19:53
#5
13 Jun 2024, 19:53#5

"...but appears to be losing in all or most of the Swing states."

You do know the swing states are rather centrist  and not redneck hillbilly country?

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
13 Jun 2024, 19:56
#6
13 Jun 2024, 19:56#6

"...He should have handed the reigns over to Gavin Newsam."

I pray to God not...did you see what Newsom did to the once prosperous California?

You lefties really have a problem with critical thinking...can't see what's right in front of you.

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,196 posts
13 Jun 2024, 23:26
#7
13 Jun 2024, 23:26#7

California is prosperous, but it has been taken over be the mega rich. It has the richest people in the world, but apparently very expensive.

The homelessness is not unique to the US, not sure what percentage are illegal immigrants versus local etc.


DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
14 Jun 2024, 02:25
#8
14 Jun 2024, 02:25#8

Trump should win in a canter, lets get serious, he's up against an old dried out decrepit and demented geriatric. An easy as you like stroll in the park with a cone of ice cream in both paws. It wouldn't surprise if he won in a landslide victory.

But then again it's exactly what should have happened four years ago....kinda strange dontcha tink?

Well maybe not because Donnie is his own worse enemy.

PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
14 Jun 2024, 03:28
#9
14 Jun 2024, 03:28#9

If I was Biden, I would ensure Trump is put in jail next month for the hush money trial.

Are you asking for political interference in the justice system?

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
14 Jun 2024, 05:16
#10
14 Jun 2024, 05:16#10

SB has no idea about what is happening  in the world.   He does not realize that he is rig ht about the one issue namely illegal migratiion - on anyt hing  else h e is wrong  and his assumptions ridiculous.   

He for instance want a banana republic dictatorship - with dictatorial tendenies as to freedom of people - inclusive of speech, beliefs and in fact weaponizing of the Justice Deartment against any opposition - which is unconstitutional - is the way to go.   He beleive the leftist media and came up with BS to support his weird views,   That is why he wants in jail - but do not know what law was broken by Trump.    He just wats Trump out of th e way irrespectie of t he voews of the US people who suffer badly under the present regime.   

When Trump was interviewed by Fox News he was cvery clear - he will stick to the constitution and not use the Justice Departments against political opponents.   If corruption by politicians are proven in any court of law the crime they have committed could land politians in jail.    That is more than anything  the Democrats fear most because too many of their leaders have been using  the kickback system and other forms to enrich themselves through corrupt activities.   But it also applies to corrupt Republicans.   

Trump clearly and publicly state that what happened under the Democrats at present will not be continued with,   The DA who refuse to act in the case of crimes and it encourage and refusal of criminals prosecution in more or less 100 crimes they have idetified to not charge alleged criinals with.   They have demonized the police services in states and cities being reduced and allow criminals to do as they please.  For instance in the case of shoplifting and house break-insthey are only charged if more t han $900 is involved - so criminal gang s loot sh ops and none of th em is charged with any crime.

Another judicial process the DA's adhere to is that self-defense in the case of criminal attacks on them people h ave no rights tp protect themselves - even to the extent that threat of their lives are clear should the criminal die or got seriously injured the defenders are charged with murder or intent to murder in the case of serious injuries.   

No bail are cah red fo release of criminals after arrest and criminals are back on streets within 24  hours to continue their crime sprees.   The same happened to th e Muslim rioters in the USA cities recently and the rioters who murdered people in the 2--2- riots organized and finded by the DNC,   So murderrs and others were  released by the Demcorats without charges,  

He dos not realize that major billionaires write out the olicies the Democrats introduce - eg Soros wrote out the policies relating to open borders and law and order and Biden just impement those by mandates which is mostly against the laws of the country and unconstitutional.   To make sure theya re implemented Soros' son meet with WH officials once a mnth in the WH.   In the case of the Green Policy the mandates implemented was compiled by Gates - who meets regularly with the  Environ Secretary t ensure implemtation.   

In the case of the Democratic Party another issue is inflation that is much higher than the WH claims it is.   The ultra-rich is also nt affected by that and the emdia pretends inflation is not an issue.   So when 70% of the voters say Biden's economic policies are a disaster for them -  SB  believes that it is not an issue and repeats the DP mantra on economy growth as propaganda.

In any event leftit policies by the Dmcorats has another result millions of eople over the last five years have fled from Democratic States to Republican Party controlled states to protect themselves.   For instance criminal gangs comprising rns wold in New York and oince t hey got the money they go to for instance Florida to enjoy themselves.   When questioned why that is ah ppening  - even the crimnals dsaid theyc an do so in New York and would not eb arrested - while in Florida they would be arrested and kept in jail until they are tried for crimes they were involved in.    Many Americans fled to Acapulco because the Mexican cartels are less dangerous than the California criminal gangs.

When it comes to the Open Border policies of the Democrats encourage the entry illegally of ilelgal migrants into the USA and that includes terrorists from Muslim Countries and China.   the situation of widespread terrorism attacks on Americans are feared to be serious and even the FBI admit it - but does nothing to prevet the invasion of criminals and terrorists into the USA. 

So under Biden poicies the country faces a serious terrorist threat inside the USA, they fear freed criminals causing havoc to ordinary law-abiding citizens and the suffer because they cannot afford enough food to cover their monthly needs since heir incomes did not keep pace with price rises.

All in all the Democrats cannot defend the dangerous result of policies they supported - so their only  real election  campaign centers around charging Trump with fake crimes and  hope that would save th em in their election campaigns.

As BB stated the USA would survive another Trump presidency - but then the USA in Democratic Party destroying the country will come to an end when the Demcorats are defeated in November and a sense of freedom is restored in the USA.

                          

                                            

         


ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
14 Jun 2024, 07:13
#11
14 Jun 2024, 07:13#11

Are you asking for political interference in the justice system?

Looks that way. Whether or not Trump goes to jail should not have anything to do with the Biden administration. 

SH
sharkbokCaptain23,196 posts
14 Jun 2024, 11:37
#12
14 Jun 2024, 11:37#12

Yes, Pakie - If I was Biden I would interfere in the justice system - just this once.

If more trials had gotten Trump into court, there would have been convictions. 
Merrick Garland was a fool for not starting the proceedings right away, which has allowed Trump to duck in dive.

Trump stacked the court with conservative justices, and some of the legacy judges are just too old

Trump will certainly put people in jail, so it is Trump or them. 

ST
Stavanger1Pro4,532 posts
14 Jun 2024, 12:07
#13
14 Jun 2024, 12:07#13

Yes, Pakie - If I was Biden I would interfere in the justice system - just this once.

No thanks. One wrong does not justify another.

If more trials had gotten Trump into court, there would have been convictions. 
Merrick Garland was a fool for not starting the proceedings right away, which has allowed Trump to duck in dive.

Seems there is quite a lot of problems with the courts in the US. 




I do like the first comment under that video.



PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
14 Jun 2024, 16:31
#14
14 Jun 2024, 16:31#14
The levels of cringe on this thread. My word!
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