All the in crowd can be spotted driving EVs these days. Hell I bought a Tesla Plaid, but more to experience the performance. The majority of my friends seem convinced these cars are going to save the planet. But there are a few flies in the ointment.
Firstly your typical EV takes 40% more carbon to build than a conventional car. That investment in carbon is paid back over the life of the vehicle. So supposedly after 50% of a car’s life you cross over into positive carbon. But that assumes a low powered EV and most of the in crowd want the powerful long range EVs. A higher powered one might get there at 80% of car life.
And it’s all predicated on the source of electricity generation….overweighted to hydro electric in the calculations. A more typical mix and higher powered EVs eliminate much of the benefit.
Then there is the pull forward effect of the additional carbon investment to build EVs. Given the long ramp up we are almost certain to see a negative effect from EVs for at least a decade. But there is another issue….we will still be building more iCE cars for the next ten years.
MIT estimates EVs could increase from 10 million in 2020 to 180 million in 2030. But over the same period they project ICE cars are likely to go from 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion. An increase of 600 million vs an additional 170 million electric cars. The massive production system we have created over a 100 years can’t be flipped with a switch.
This at a time when things are supposedly at a tipping point. At this crucial juncture the environmentalists destroy nuclear, the best electric source from a carbon perspective after hydro. ..and we put all our efforts into electric vs making ICE cars more efficient.
If we mandated a return to 1990 performance, fairly measured, for every ICE car….we can have a bigger, more immediate effect on carbon. And for the huge existing base, new chips could be devised and retro fitted to improve mileage. Again an immediate effect.
Doing this and expanding nuclear which would ultimately be the ideal partner for electric cars, gives us a practical path forwards. Don’t sell your Tesla stock though, getting results isn’t what the activists want, ripping up the industrial complex is far sexier. If the world really believed the end is near we would be building nuclear power stations as fast as we could.
I bought a little natural gas stock today….it’s bound to become more valuable as the environmentalists stop pipelines to distribute our most immediate energy resource.