The American electorate is made up as follows;-
Supporting of the present economic scenario - 57%
Socialist – Communist supporters - 40%
No Opinion - 3%
The situation is further that the party divide is as follows:
Democrats - 38% of all registered voters
Republicans - 32% of all registered voters
Independents - 30% of all registered voters
Socialists/ Communist Supporters:-
Democrats - 50%
None aligned voters - 23%
Republicans - 7%
That means that half of the registered Democrat members are Socialists/Communists and in most states Independents can also vote in the Primaries. Taking that into account the situation in the Primaries will almost certainly result in a majority for Sanders and it is no wonder that he gained the majority of the votes cast in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
The other question is – what will happen if Sanders is nominated to be the DP candidate in the 2020 presidential election. Sanders can count on the 50% of the Democrats and 23% of the independents in the general election – that will be his core support, What will happen to the rest of the DP and the independent supporters and the independents?
38% of the registered voters are Democrats so Sanders is
- Certain to get DP support from the DP Socialists - 20%
- Habitual Democrats - 15%
- Independents - 8%
The rest of the Democrats may vote for an Independent Candidate - vote for Trump – or stay away from voting altogether
In the case of the Republican voters –
Trump will get the support of Republicans 29%
Independents 27%
Taking into account the fact that it could be expected that there may be a 10% vote going to Independent candidates – ie 6% higher than in 2016 because of the Sanders candidacy - the above percentages could be adjusted as follows:-
Support for Trump 52%
Support for Sanders 38%
Independents 10%
The support base of the DP is in the coastal states – but even there the above figures could spell disaster for the DP. In fact the number of coastal DP states can be reduced to 5 or 6 and some could see that a number of states will go Republican. The certain DP states can be the following:-
* California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington and Oregon and perhaps four to six of the smaller states:
* Wherever the DP won by less than 6% of the vote in 2016 the chances are they would go Republican.
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