One more sleep!
The world's greatest race and my favourite annual sporting event starts tomorrow.
The 2021 Tour de France was originally scheduled to start in Copenhagen but the Grand Depart has been moved to Brest because of Covid-19. The entire Tour will take place within France this year.
It's basically a clockwise route this year with the Alps coming before the Pyrenees. Apart from the mountains there are two individual time trials, 5 or 6 flat stages suited to a bunch sprint and a few hilly stages favouring puncheurs or breakaways . . . so pretty much everything that fans of this great event could ask for.
The General Classification this year looks a two horse race between the two Slovenians Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic. These two dominated the last Tour culminating in a truly amazing victory for Pogacar on the penultimate day when he made up enough time on Roglic to wear the yellow jersey onto the Champs Elysees and win his maiden Tour. There's nothing to suggest this year will be any different and once again Tour fans will be wondering how a tiny country like Slovenia can produce the two greatest cyclists of their generation. Pogacar's finish in the final time trial last year which gave him the victory was one of my all time favourite sporting moments and I'll be pulling for him again, but I have tremendous respect for Primoz Roglic and Pogacar will have a fight on his hands.
Seems almost weird to see a team like Ineos Grenadiers (ex Sky) with so many great riders like Giro winners Richard Carapaz and Teo Geoghan-Hart, former Tour winner Geraint Thomas and perennial Grand Tour contender Richie Porte and think they don't really have much chance this year but - barring crashes or illness - I can't see anything but a Slovenian one-two.
The Green jersey will also be interesting. Peter Sagan has won the Green jersey of the Tour in 7 of the last 9 editions but as we saw last year, his immense powers are waning and he is not as competitive in the bunch sprints as he used to be, but will always be a sprinter to be feared in a tough uphill finish or on a stage where there are a few category 3 or 4 climbs. Michael Matthews won the Green Jersey in 2017 and has similar strengths to Sagan but the challenge may come from one of the pure sprinters this year. Caleb Ewan is probably the fastest man in the peleton but he has already stated that his ambition this year is to win a stage in each of the Grand Tours so he will probably win a stage or two and then abandon the race before the really tough mountains (as he did in the Giro this year) and then prepare for the Vuelta. In the absence of last year's winner Sam Bennett, Arnaud Demare is my pick to challenge Sagan or Matthews for the Green Jersey. He is very fast and has a team around him focussed on helping him win stages. Tim Merlier impressed in the Giro this year and will be involved in some of the bunch sprints as will the likes of Sonny Colbrelli, Cees Bol and Jasper Philipsen.
Just to add, it is my fervent wish that just one year, Team Jumbo Visma allows Wout van Aert to race for the Green Jersey rather than riding for Primoz Roglic because I'm certain Van Aert would blow everyone away if he was allowed to focus on winning stages. He can sprint, he is one the top time-trialists and he is often one of the last of Roglic's teammates to give way up the steep climbs. A truly incredible rider who deserves a shot at the Green Jersey but may have to switch teams to get that opportunity. Talking of Wout van Aert, there's another Belgian superstar in the making called Mathieu van der Poel who - like Van Aert - comes from a cyclo-cross background and like Van Aert, can both sprint and time trial. Not sure if he's as strong as Van Aert on the steeper climbs but this will be his first Grand Tour and I can't wait to see how he goes. Unlike Van Aert, he has license to try and win stages as he's not there to help one of the GC favourites.
The King of the Mountains jersey is always tough to predict and I suspect that like last year, it will go to one of Pogacar or Roglic. This is more of an opportunist jersey and you might also find that someone who picks up a few KOM points from early breakaways might be tempted to ride for the jersey but the really big points for this jersey are on the really steep climbs and there are quite a lot of those this year . . . so Pogacar is my pick.
The White Jersey is something of a foregone conclusion this year. Tadej Pogacar is still only 22 years old and barrng a crash will win the Young Rider jersey comfortably. If bad luck or a crash does befall him, it will probably be between David Gaudu or Lucas Hamilton.
So those are my thoughts before the Tour. If anyone else is interested in this wonderful sporting event, I'll be around to chat.