FIXTURESNo upcoming fixtures — check back soon.
FORUM / RUGBY /  Beeno will be delighted about the SC Primary

Beeno will be delighted about the SC Primary

Started by clevermike16 REPLIES685 VIEWS· 21 Feb 2016, 04:01
SHAREXFACEBOOKWHATSAPPTELEGRAMREDDITLINKEDIN
CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 04:01
#1
21 Feb 2016, 04:01#1
Trump has won the SC Primary with 32.8% of the votes counted thus far with Cruz and Rubio at circa 22% each.  
Jeb Bush has suspended his campaign after getting 8,6% of the vote.   The other two candidates Kasich and Carson got less of the vote.   
So where to now,  with Bush out I think the other two minority candidates will also withdrawn - leaving the top three to fight it out,
It is likely that the Bush votes will go to Rubio and those of the other two candidates as well.   That will be a downgrade for Trump and also for Cruz.   I think that after tonight the Republican candidate will ultimately be Rubio under those circumstances.
In this regard it must be mentioned that if a candidate withdraws - his supporting delegates to the Convention will go to Rubio - since that is where the Republican Establishment will ask them to go.  The voters supporting those candidates will not go to Trump - since they represents a less reactionary part of the vote.
If Trump can only manage about one third of the Republican Party voters - he cannot win the nomination.  In a survey today - it was found that 49% of the voters in South Carolina think that Rubio can win the presidential election - with only 16% of the voters think Trump can win the presidential election.       
MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
21 Feb 2016, 05:58
#2
21 Feb 2016, 05:58#2
Of the 7% that Bush won...2% will go to Cruz, 2% will go to Rubio....1% goes to Trump. Changes nothing really. Unless Cruz or Rubio can change the paradigm, Trump will win.
And the truth is Rubio is probably too young and Cruz is an unpopular zealot. That leaves  us with Trump. What a hoot! Nobody saw this coming.
CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 08:08
#3
21 Feb 2016, 08:08#3
 If Trump was able to push his numbers up to 38 to 40% of the vote in the primaries he would have a nomination chance.   The highest percentage he got was 35% in New Hampshire - now 32,6% in South Carolina.  
To my mind the percentage of support is just not high enough.  We will see what happens on Super Tuesday - but I am not sure whether Trump would do as well as he did this time around.  The big states like Texas and Florida will decide the issue.  
I think most of the financial support Bush got will go to Rubio.   What is clear is that the funders will not go to Trump.   Trump will not make the final selection process of the Republicans.   I think the voters actually dislike the cabal running hte party from Washington.   They are sick and tired of what is going on in the RP who promise the voters something different.         
BE
Beeno1
Captain40,032 posts
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
21 Feb 2016, 08:51
#4
21 Feb 2016, 08:51#4
 Bwahahahahahahaha ou maaaikie is sooooo funny. Look at this:In this regard it must be mentioned that if a candidate withdraws - his supporting delegates to the Convention will go to Rubio - since that is where the Republican Establishment will ask them to go.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha Listen ou maaaikie the establishment is OUT!!! You still dont get it. Carson's voters will mostly go to Trump and believe me Cruz voters will mostly go to Trump. Dr Moz where will Kaish voters go do you think?
Rubio is seen as establishment and that will count heavily against him. Voters can also easily see he is not remotely in the class of Trump.The momentum building up for Trump is fantastic.Once Trump has won the republican nomination he will easily beat whoever the democrats field.Ou maaaaikie isn't it time you got used to the idea of President Trump - who will be possibly the greatest president the USA has ever had. Ou maaaaike the funders going to Rubio means zip. How did it help Bush. Trump can easily show Rubio is establishment by talking about his Senate voting record. If Trump chooses he can put 100's of millions into his campaign but so far he hasn't needed to.Rubio looks like and is a little boy. The USA needs a real warrior with smarts and Trump is the man.
Dr Moz did nobody see this coming? Hahahhahahahahahahahaha Yes it is a hoot. Fantastic and just in time to save the USA from disaster. Currently 20 trillion in debt although Obama will try to increase that before he leaves the Whitehouse. What an utter disaster this clown has been. They should deport him to iran.
Trump will not make the final selection process of the republicans. Bwahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Man ou maaaikie is a real tonic. They say laughter is the best medicine!   

CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 09:21
#5
21 Feb 2016, 09:21#5
 Mozart
I do not think you are right.  The real issue is how will Trump do from now onwards.   He yet has to win an outright majority in a state and he is bloody far from that 32,6% is not enough.  
You had an opinion poll where he let by 42% support in South Carolina and he got 10% less than that.  This is really madness - but answer my one question which yiu refuse to ask.  Trump support torture - so do you yourself supports torture?  If so how would you reconcile that with your Christian beliefs?
Frankly I am beginning to believe that Rubio is going to be the final candidate.  Cruz is a real outsider and he takes away votes from Trump in the main and he is going to suffer badly in Florida and Texas - where the Bush family has influence and with Jeb Bush gone Trump will end up with less than 25% of the vote.   We will have tio see over the next three weeks what happens.         
BL
Blikkies
Pro1,526 posts
BL
BlikkiesPro1,526 posts
21 Feb 2016, 10:20
#6
21 Feb 2016, 10:20#6

Trump got some additional momentum in South Carolina, but it is still early days to predict who the Republican nominee will be. Super Tuesday will be decisive.

In 2012 Romney had at a similar stage in the race also between 30 and 40% of the Rep. vote, but he went on to get the Republican nomination.



CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 11:02
#7
21 Feb 2016, 11:02#7
Blikkies
I think the Republicans are seriously divided at present.  There are actually three issues at play here:-
*   The distrust and dislike of a large percentage of the voters in what is called the Washington Cabal;
*    The number of candidates put up their names for nomination.
Broadly speaking the first issue is pitting the anti-establishment candidates of Trump and Cruz against the establishment candidates Bush, Kasich and Carson and a string of others who have already bowed out - with Rubio somewhere on the fringe of the establishment.   The voters in fact rejected all the establishment candidates and Trump has benefited most from this feeling in the electorate.   Rubio is relatively new in Washington and he is likely to benefit from the centrist voters, while Cruz is splitting the anti-establishment vote, weakening the Trump situation to where he is vulnerable.  
I frankly do not think that the comparison with Romney is fair - he was not fighting a situation of distrust of the voters in the Establishment and he did better on Super Tuesday.   However, what Trump is benefiting from is a protest vote and that does not mean he is actually selectable.\
The Democrats has the same problem - but the problem is not as widespread as it is in the Republican Party.
Insofar as the candidates are concerned - there is a problem as well.   The minority candidate voters will not go to Trump - since the relevant voters backed the establishment candidates and they will search for another candidate that may bring more stability for the party.  That gropup of voters make up circa 25% of the voters and they will likely go for Rubio - not Trump.  With that kind of support the person most likely to make it is Rubio - while Cruz will split the anti-establishment vote and make it easier for Rubio to win.      
 

  
     
BE
Beeno1
Captain40,032 posts
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
21 Feb 2016, 12:01
#8
21 Feb 2016, 12:01#8
 More hillarity from ou maaaaike.
Ou maaaikie I dont want to spoil your Sunday BUT IGNORANCE IS NOT BLISS.From the UK Telegraph:

Billionaire property mogul could be unstoppable if he sweeps the board in “Super Tuesday”

Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican race has strengthened following his triumph in South Carolina, leaving him favourite to secure the nomination.

Should the billionaire property sweep the board in Super Tuesday he would, if not out of sight, be in complete control of the race.

According to one calculation, Mr Trump may have already won as many as 65 per cent of delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina

 

Had, for example Marco Rubio, performed as well as Mr Trump he would, the Washington Post argues, already be the odds-on favourite.

A dozen states and one territory vote on Super Tuesday – March 1 – and Mr Trump is in first place in most, if not all of them.

By then he will almost certainly have won Nevada, where polls show him having a 30-point lead.

Somehow his popularity appears undimmed despite a series of gaffes from an intemperate spat with the right wing broadcaster (SOME gaffes they were as his ratings went up. Trump has these bozos over a barrel. Poor Megan must realsie her anti trump rhetoric does trump the world of good) Fox News and one of its leading anchors, Megyn Kelly, to boasting he could shoot people in Fifth Avenue and still lead the polls.

 

In fact, Mr Trump’s poll rating has only dropped a little and he remains comfortably above 30 per cent in most of the surveys, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio fight it out to emerge as his main challenger.

It begs the question of how Mr Trump can be stopped. One obvious answer would be for either Mr Cruz or Mr Rubio to drop out. (Not really as Cruz supporters would turn to TRUMP! Bwahhahahahahahahahahaha)

But such is their mutual loathing – highlighted by a remarkable ill-tempered spat in Spanish in the last Republican debate – it is hard to see that happening soon.

The last hope of the Republican “establishment” is that 168 so called “super delegates” could tilt a tight contest at the Convention away from Mr Trump if he does not arrive with enough backing to win the nomination outright.

 

But their freedom of action has been curtailed by a change in the rules which mandates them to vote for the candidate their state supported.

In any case, all this is predicated on Mr Trump’s bandwagon grinding to a halt over the next few months.

As things stand, that is not looking likely.

Yes I agree its not looking likely at all.

Beeno the realist, ou maaaikie the avid pipe smoker 


BE
Beeno1
Captain40,032 posts
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
21 Feb 2016, 12:37
#9
21 Feb 2016, 12:37#9
 Ou maaaikie both Trump and Cruz will know what the situation is at the nomination event.No ways will they allow the establishment candidate like Rubio to get in. Trump will offer Cruz the VC spot etc. You are talking about a master deal maker.Of course if this momentum continues to grow, as is likely, no deal will need to be made.
Ou maaaikie please wise up.
Thanks
CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 13:44
#10
21 Feb 2016, 13:44#10
 I do not think that Trump will want to make Cruz his deputy - they have serious differences in approach - for instance Cruz has very strong conservative tendencies and is hated by the Washigton crowd even more than they hate Trump.  Cruz told them repeatedly that they advocate one thing during election campaigns and when they get elected to Congress they acted in opposition to what they told the voters.
I do not see any momentum - don't bluff yourself.    Trump got 35% support in New Hampshire - but 32,6% in South Carolina.   That is not momentum - it is more stagnation or even moving backwards.   Trump will continue to waver between 30 and 34% and Cruz will be at more or less 24% after Texas and California.
Another problem is that the Republican members of Congress near to 300 members are also delegates at the Convention - so they can swing the Convention also.  
if Trump moves nearer to 40%+ the situation may be different and he may have a chance - but on his own he will get nowhere.   .         
BE
Beeno1
Captain40,032 posts
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
21 Feb 2016, 13:50
#11
21 Feb 2016, 13:50#11
 So as folk drop out of the race Trump will get nothing more in terms of votes. Trump and Cruz will never make a deal to keep out an establishment candidate like rubio - also where is Rubio going to get all these votes - 
Hahahah ahhahahahahahahahaha very, very funny ou maaaikie your are excelling today!!
CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 14:31
#12
21 Feb 2016, 14:31#12
 Where did Rubio got 156 000 votes from in South Carolina?
JW
Just_win
Captain18,570 posts
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
21 Feb 2016, 14:47
#13
21 Feb 2016, 14:47#13
 Republicans remind me of the seven dwarfs, Trump is dopey of course (along with his supporters) . I leave it to others to link the candidates with the remaining dwarfs.
JW
Just_win
Captain18,570 posts
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
21 Feb 2016, 16:31
#14
21 Feb 2016, 16:31#14
 Or perhaps Trump is Chumpy.
BE
Beeno1
Captain40,032 posts
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
21 Feb 2016, 19:54
#15
21 Feb 2016, 19:54#15
 ou maaaikie nobody says he gets NO votes. Only that the chump doesnt get enough. 
The more the establishment support rubio the more he will crash.


CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
21 Feb 2016, 20:48
#16
21 Feb 2016, 20:48#16
 Beeno
They will not say anything about supporting him - but he will get more funding from the Party - the money that used to go to Bush - and he will get their local organisations to help him with canvassing.  
BE
Beeno1
Captain40,032 posts
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
21 Feb 2016, 21:14
#17
21 Feb 2016, 21:14#17
 Ou maaaaikie Trump cannot be out spent really. As his bid for presidency grows the funds for opponents dry up. IN ANY EVENT HE DOESNT HAVE TO SPEND MUCH AS HE IS A MEDIA MAGNET AND MASTER OF GETTING PUBLICITY. JEB BUSH SPENT OVER  MILLION DOLLARS AND HE IS DOWN AND OUT.Now watch this clip as it explain s why the ESTABLISHMENT ARE SO AFRAID OF DONALD TRUMP. No guy has stood up to them like this in living memory.


— END OF THREAD —

More from Rugby

More news