Statistics are a bad way to predict outcomes of Matches - especially as it is influenced by issues such as injury to key players, whether it relates to Home and away games and also the motivation of players. In the current year also some teams did not play some other teams - but there are still some comparative figures when performances of the Crusaders and Bulls are concerned. There is another complicating factor and that is that the teams played twice against teams within their respective conferences.
The best methods are to compare the results of games played by the Bulls against teams the Crusaders played and then see how that measure up.
Crusaders
Blues (2) Game 1 Away = 19-18 Game 2 Home 59-12
Highlanders (2) Game 1 Away = 24-27 Game 2 Home 51-18
Chiefs (2) Game 1 Home = 19-24 Game 2 Away 28-21
Hurricanes (2) Game 1 Home = 42-14 Game 2 Away 22-23
Cheetahs (Away) 28-21
Lions (Away) 23-13
Stormers (Home) 31-24
Waratahs (Away) 37-32
Reds (Home) 15-11
Rebels (Home) 19-28
Western Force (Away) 38-24
Bulls
Sharks (2) Game 1 Home = 18-13 Game 2 Away 10-32
Stormers (2) Game 1 Away = 17-20 Game 2 Home 14-19
Cheetahs (2) Game 1 Away = 51-19 Game 2 Home 40-24
Lions (2) Game 1 Away = 32-18 Game 2 Home 37-20
Crusaders (Home) 32-30
Brumbies (Away) 36-34
Rebels (Away) 41-36
Waratahs (Away) 27-24
Chiefs (Away) 22-28
Blues (Home) 29-22
Reds (Home) 61-8
Evaluation of the outcomes of the following teams the two teams played against indicates that the Crusaders beat the following teams at home:-
Bkues
Highlanders
Hurricanes
Stormers
Reds
They lost at home agaist the following team:
The Rebels
Analysis
They beat the new Zealand teams at home by large margins - but against the other three teams they were not that convincimng. Although they beat the Stormers and the Reds - they lost against the Rebels. The Stormers played a makeshift team against them because of injuries and the same problem was also encountered by the Reds. The loss against the Rebels was indeed surprising.
The Bulls
The Bulls won against the following teams:-
Sharks ((Home)
Cheetahs
Lions
Crusaders
Blues
Reds
Brumbies
Waratahs
Rebels
Analasys
The Bulls won a number of away games - but struggled against the Sharks away and the Stormers - the latter both at home and away. They won all the games they played against Australian teams and playing away against the Chiefs they lost by a reasonable small margin. Although they won by small margins in Australia - they beat the Reds by a massive margin at home.
There is not much difference between the outcomes of the Crusaders and Bulls played against the same teams. For instance the Crfusaders bewat the Waratahs 37-32 - whilst the Bulls beat them 27-24. The Crusaaders beat the Cheetahs comprehensively by margins in excess of 12 points - the Crusaders manage a 7 point win against them. The Crusaders beat the Reds at home by 15-11, and the Bulls beat them at home 61-8. The Bulls beat the Rebels away - the Crusaders lost against them at home.
The Question is - WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ABOVE INSOFAR AS THE OUTCOME OF THE PLAY-OFF GAME ON SATURDAY IS CONCERNED.
Looking at the information as outlined above - I believe that the Crusaders this year was not entirely convincing at home. They beat the New Zealand teams easily at home - but struggled against teams from Australia and South Africa - also a Stormers team weakened by injury.
Based on the above analysis - and not history of previous years - I believe that the home ground advatage is a real issue. As such I think that the Crusaders have a 65% chance of beating the Bulls (nothing more) - but if the Sharks lose against the Reds and they have to travel to Cape Town they would have a more difficult problem - in view of their of their rather patchy away record.
