Dismantling an anti Meyer stat once and for all

Beeno

Playing around with figures does not solve the problem.   The two draws equates to no wins and the fact is that those two were in a test against a team from England that was in an even bigger rebuilding  phase than Meyer was involved in and Argentina - the first time ever a Springbok team did not beat Argentina convincingly.

However, you cannot leave out those two games in any statistical calculation of win-loss ratio.   It means in effect that Meyer's win record remains at 57,8%.   Mozart came up with a formula to factor in the two draws in a reasonable manner - and that brought the win-loss ratio statisically to 67% - the figure Saffex was using.  

The indisputable fact remains - disregarding the statistical issue - the Springboks only WON 7 games out of a toal of 12 played - end of story.

ou maaaikie I can see context is not your strong point.

Please prove to me our loss ratio of 3 out of 12 is not 25%. Not too bad at all - espcially given context. Against England in that third test we had number of players out injured and that was the reason for the draw - apart from Morne missing was it 4 kicks at goal?

Bokbe you are right. Writing off the Boks right now is uncalled for. All this wringing of hands is hilarious!

I have been pretty quiet on the subject, but here is my take on things. Meyer took a while to fix the problems at the Bulls when he first joined the union. People can argue this and that about his game plan while coaching in Pretoria, but at the time it was the ideal game plan and the end result was the Bulls winning South Africa's first Super Rugby title. It should also be taken into consideration, that he took over the Bulls when they were absolutely hopeles.

I think it is fair it is fair to say that Pieter DeVilliers did a lot of stupid things in his time as Bok coach, things that needed to be fixed by whoever took over from him. Lastly, as was mentioned, there was a mass exodus of players to retirement etc, players that many would consider irreplaceable. Matfield, Fourie Du Preez, Bakkies, Jaque Fourie, John Smit, Guthro, etc. Also, injuries to players like Bekker, Schalk, Bizmark and so on. I know some of the players I have mentioned were passed their best last year, or even well before that, but at the height of their respective careers they were the best in the world. The point I want to make is that they needed to be replaced, something that should have happened under PDV, but did'nt, and as a result ,Meyer was left with a mess to sort out.

Now there are many things that Meyer has done that I can't understand, team/squad selections especially (Brussouw, Serfontein etc being left out of this years training camp), but last year was not a complete flop for the boks. As for the "kick and chase" strategy, what else was he supposed to do? He had a couple of weeks to prepare the Springboks before their first international. He could not undo 25 years of conservative rugby in that time. They were competative throughout the Castle Championship and they managed a clean sweep at the EOY tour. My last point, people will argue that NZ and Aus also had to rebuild after the world cup. But both teams did so without the need for a new team strategy, the boks needed to catch up 4 years of game plan, that PDV just ignored. 

Meyer should be judged on the performance of the Boks this year, because he has now had enough time to implement his plans. If the Springboks don't perform this year, I'll join the choir, but so far he has identified the Boks weaknesses that I think we all can agree are the real issues, backline and ball retention, and hopefully he can rectify them, and return the Boks to the no.1 spot.

 Beenkop, what a load of shit. You can't sit there and say what if, we lost in Dunedin end of. If we use your method we could apply that to our pathetic performances on the EOYT where we scraped wins against a depleted Irish side, snuck through against Scotland of all sides and then did the same against England.

Not to mention that draw against Argentina which we snuck in in injury time thanks to a Frans Steyn intercept.

We played one good game of test rugby in 2012 and that was against Oz at home, for the rest we were piss poor.

The issue with Meyer was poor team and squad selection coupled with an out of date kick and chase game plan - hence the average results. Meyer was poor in year one, his first squad selection of year 2 shows no lessons have been learnt. Another year of 67% awaits and if this is the case, Meyer must go

Bluebok

I have no problem with identifying deficiencies - Meyer did that - but the  problem I have is what he is doing about correcting those deficiencies.

He is apparently going all the way with regard to the breakdown issue - and that is to be welcomed.   However, his dealing with correction of the Backline problems can at best be described as amateurish and unconvincing.   

I have elsewhere dealt with some of his statement and the resultant actions taken - and it was evident that those actions did not at all correct the problems he himself mentioned in his statements.   So where does it leave us at present - but to doubt whether the corrective measures would work?

I think also Meyer is really problematic with his squad selection.  He selectd players who struggle to make the starting line-ups of their Super 15 teams and leave out others fom his squad for the training camp - who have done exceptionally well in Super 15.   That to my mind indicated that although he wants to correct for instance the breakdown problems - he puts his faith in players that really will fail in the end.

His solution to the backline problems are equally frail beause of player selection.   Attacking backline players are not going to help with those players that has already shown in the tests last year and in Super 15 that they fail in that respect.   A new broom needs to be used and the failures identified properly.

Then lastly - what is indeed his game plan?   The public image is that he is "married" to Morne Steyn and he has caused a change in the way Lambie plays in an effort to remain in contention for selection.   Lambie can still be turned back to his natural game - but Steyn remains a flyhalf who cannot change his game.   If he goes on with Steyn at flyhalf - the backline would be dead and nothing he does would enhance improvement.   We have two of th best wings in the world - yet they never see the ball beause of what happens inside of them.   

If Meyer can be seen to be more successful in combatting especially the backline malady of the Springboks - he would go a long way towards getting the Springboks improving their status - but it is evident that there are scant attention being paid to that aspect of the game - hence my low hopes for success.  After all it is a 15 man game - not a 10 or 11 man game.  

Saffex

I agree with you whole-heartedly - but just one correction.  The try Steyn scored against the Argentinians was not an intercept - the try followed a charge-down by him.  He is far too slow to be in an intercept situation.   LOL

Talking about straining at gnats and swallowing camels...the most common defect and infirmity in Saffaland....67%...70% who cares.

Old Maaik...like your dry sense of humour...Playing around with figures does not solve the problem. LOL

This saga is getting ridiculous.

Bluebok, I agree...Meyer should be judged on the performance of the Boks this year...but

The mystery or puzzle as I have remarked before is some of the dead meat selections don't add up to a new gameplan/s or approach or whatever...it is somewhat of a riddle to solve.

Nevertheless, there is in fact nothing we can do about it except wait and see...hopefully we can be proven wrong about HM but personally I doubt it. What people say and promise and eventually do, has to do with their integrity, honesty and ability...there seems to be a huge lack of that around in the world...especially Saffaland...where it is as scarce as good taxi drivers and honest politicians.

Well we lost Smit, Fury, F du Preez, Bakkies and  Victor through retirements. And JP, Spies and Bismarck through injuries . That's over half of the starting team. Then we lost Goosen , the player everybody was pinning their hopes on.

And there wasn't a game we were not in with a chance. Take our three losses:

1) Against Oz away , we were even at minute 67.

2) Against NZ away, we were even up to minute 55.

3) And at home were ahead at the half, but lost Goosen shortly before the half ended. And then Taute missed Dagg....was that the player's fault or Meyer's fault?

The fact is we were in with a shout, even in our away RC matches. No Meyer team was embarrassed. On the concerning side was the fact we were outgained by all our YE opponents. In the Pom test massively so. These were very technical wins.

So we do need a more effective backline role. But that isn't solely a flyhalf issue, as Lambie's team was the main culprit in our metres gained problem. In fact the team with Morne starting through the RC away leg, was ahead in  metres gained,  by some 48 metres per game.

I don't think this is a selection  problem.....we have dangerous ball carriers. We don't have productive attacking patterns. ....double wings, cuts onto the ball at pace, drifting on the pass, adequate support for the player running from deep. This is a coaching issue and can be fixed as we saw when Eddie Jones sorted the RWC Boks.

In short I think we have a competent, decent man as our coach. But he needs to get more help in the backline area.

I can talk about the Dunedin test and will. We played the better rugby and should have won by a canter. It was not Meyer fault that 9 kicks at goal were missed and we lost by ten. Sorry snapster but your 67% is a load of twaddle and CANNOT be used to beat up on Meyer. Winning that match would have given him outstanding stats. As it is a 25% loss ratio given the context was an excellent performance dispite all the bleatings here!

End of story.

Like Bluebok correctly says there were  a lot of extenuating circumstances(or context as i have been calling it) Its plain dumb to ignore it.

I have pointed out how the sharks last year started poorly - simply because of injuries and how the Stormers didnt finish strongly simply because of injuries. These are facts and one has to consider them when assessing things. Only the daftest of hatters would not consider context!!

I suppose if his entire team was injured and his win ratio was not to good you would fire the coach. Hopelss aruments from the oaks!!!!!

I suppose you thing the comments re Cheetah weariness and Naka's lack of squad depth are excuses. If the Cheetahs run out of gas its becasue Naka is a poor coach. 

Hilarious stuff from the oaks!!!!!!!

And for all the Morne bashers. Last year when he left the park, in his 7 starts....we were only behind in one game....the Aussie away test.....and then only by a converted try. In the rest we were either ahead or even. Just a thought.

Pfffft! "we shoulda won the dunedin test", "we shoulda won the world cup" but what happened beano? (It a retorical question btw u silly fucker!)

Let me be the first to wish the springboks an outstanding season and i hope to see some cracking rugby between the ab's and boks this year even if it's at the expense of yet another ab victory, would love to see some nice push overs mauls, tight heads on scrums and habanna let lose actually.

and if we do lose a game to the mighty boks i'll try and get in first to say "well played lads! far too strong for us tonight" and i promise... again I promise I wont spend months and months making excuses and preaching coulda's and shoulda's cause that shit has never won anyone a rugby game.

 Spot on ABB

abnob much better just to be honest and admit the Boks were far better  than the abs at Dunedin and that you were saved by a bad goal kicking display.

Bwahahahaha ou abnob cant admit it and neither can he admit how bad ou bryce lawrnce was. NZ ref of the year fired by the IRB. Meanwhile he forgets about the French booting them out of the world cup and the nz outcry re a couple of bad calls   Thought they would never get over it!!

Be assured if you were the much better side or had been crooked out of the match you would mention it. Hahhahahahahaha ou abnob all at sea!

Sorry abnob you are dealing with a realist. Please feel free to follow the fantasy rugby thread!

 Beeno - I would be amongst the first to say that M Steyn's poor kicking was the #1 reason the Boks did not have a better season. Margins for error are so small at the international level and with the style of game employed, there is just no room for Bok success with a less than 80% kick success rate. Would also say that the winning percentage alone is no way to judge a season or a coach's career as it is a superficial judgment and ignores all the other factors that would go into determining whether the season was a success.

But I don't get the whole fuzzy math thing - the winning percentage was 58% - bottomline.

Hahaha, then hurry the f up and get real beanob! the boks lost those games meaning, the other team scored more POINTS! beleive it or not it takes a decent team to outscore the opposition against the run of play! the kicker should have been changed maybe? maybe there was no contingency in this regard....Does it matter now.... Well not according to the rugby championship sitting in the AB's cabinet at the moment! So get real beano! It's happened it's gone!..... Get real! hahahaahabbannaeanoob!

Mozart

I may sound funny but in essence I agree with the following statement made by you:-

"In short I think we have a competent, decent man as our coach. But he needs to get more help in the backline area."

There could be queries raised abut the competency issue - but that would be dealt with through Springbok performances this year.   One question though = does he realize he needs help in the backline area and is he going to take action to get that help?

i remember having this argument with beeno1 aka storming ed, at first i thought he was taking the mickey, but then i realised he was serious, since then i have learned never to include benno1 aka storming ed in any serious discussion, espcially when for some reason he hasnt had his nap time for which i will now be seeking an explantion from his wetnurse.

anyways, heres a link to this very stupid argument where beeno1 aka stormingeds lack of education is so very apparent ,,,
www.sarugby.com/forum.cfm

or as oimatey said, bottomline is the Boks winning percetage is 58%
12 tests played
7 tests won
it really is that simple, if ur brainds not peasized and frozen of course, :o)

Look we can all talk percentages, and what a draw is worth etc etc, but it is all just semantics. His performances this year will ultimately prove weather or not Heineke has what it takes at international level. Seriously, he really was up against it last year with regards to preperation time, a mass player exodus, a mass of injuries to first choice players, and an out of date team strategy that needed to be fixed. He has now had the time to address all of those issues (injuries are still a bit of an issue, but all countries face the same problem), and in my opinion, he can now be judged fairly. If the Boks still don't perform, then he is just not good enough.

Having said what I have said above, I find many of his team selections questionable, and last year he seemed to make no serious changes to the outdated tactics of the Boks, but I'll happily eat humble pie regarding my thoughts on him, if he turns things around for the Boks.

Wrong bluebok, while we lost players, Meyer had a huge pool of talent to draw on. Hell we had 3 of our S15 sides end up in the top 5 last year.

Meyer instead chose to invest in old hasbeens, show blind faith in the likes of Morne, play Jean out of position at 13 and above all tried to implement a game plan that was out of touch with the modern way.

Meyer failed on many levels and its clear he has learnt very little given the selection of his first squad this year.

Saff, as I have mentioned, I don't agree with many of his team selections in both the past, and now. But my argument is simple, judge him on this years performances, last year he was up against it from the start, but now he has no excuses. 

Don't get me wrong, I was very happy about his appointment when he first got the Bok job, but he has dissapointed me plenty since then. I just think for fairness sake, I'll give him this season to prove himself. I still think he is smarter than people give him credit for.

Behind the scenes:

Beeno

This is really a futile argument - that should never has been discussed.   Percentages does not win rugby games - so whether games are won drawn or lost indicates the final achievement.

7 games won out of 12 means exactly that - not a mighty achievement.  Let Meyer goes on and prove this year that he can do better - but his first training camp squad was a joke in bad taste and if he wants to do better - he better gets his act together.

Funny thing - Plumtree is dropping two of Meyer's pets and one wonders why?

 Yeah blue, I am with you. I was all for Meyer's appointment. I had high expectations and he failed to deliver in a big was in his first year.

I had hoped he had learnt from his mistakes but the selection of his first training squad tells me otherwise - we see the same stupidity repeated

Behind the scenes continued

Saffex my conscience is pricking me, shouldnt we just admit that Beeno was right yet again - I mean nobody would even notice as its so much the norm?

Dont talk crap dommike!!! I dont care if Meyer won 110% of his test he would still be piss poor as a coach. You are forgetting his selection blunders. Meyer prefers Louw to Brusouw!!! He picked has been ous(hahahahaha) like Jean and Bryan Habana!!!!!!! Not only that but he is stuffing up our younger players. I mean how do you think that brilliant young Jantjes feels when Meyer prefers a never has been like Morne!!!

Mike I bet every night Meyer phones Lambie and tells him to kick a bit more. Man its so obvious that even you picked up on that! If Meyer knew his coaching Frans wouldnt be overweight like this and Bekker wouldnt be off to Japan. He is a disaster I  tell you!! Look how he cocked up re Stander I could go on and on.

What Meyer doesnt grasp is how quickly young players mature these days. If the twits running England rugby listened to me some of my under 16 will play for England as early as next year. These old farts have lost it!

Saffex I have to say I didnt realise a coach could achieve a 110% win rate. Perhaps in the light of this that 70% isnt so good after all and even 80% could be said to be average? But yes what you say is true Meyer has done our rugby untold damage and its about to get far worse. Sob Sob.

MIke hang in there buddy Meyer will be out by the end of the year and dont be too suprised if yours truly gets a call up.

SOB SOB SOB.

Mike are you okay buddy? Dont get upset about the stats Mike you know very well how they can be used to support any argument. Mums the word right!