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European Champions Cup - Rugby

Started by clevermike11 REPLIES241 VIEWS· 19 Jan 2015, 11:09

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clevermike

Coach57,555 posts

clevermikeCoach57,555 posts

19 Jan 2015, 11:09

19 Jan 2015, 11:09#1

The Round Robin Phase of the competition is completed this coming weekend. I tried to determine who is going to go through to the quarterfinals - but it is virtually impossible to do that - seeing that there are too many key matches taking place this coming weekend. What is clear from the schedule is that the minimum points needed to go through to the quarterfinals are in fact 19 points.

The following is the breakdown iro of the various pools:-

Pool 1

Clermont Auvergne - 18

Saracens - 17

Clermont is playing Saracens this coming Sunday and the winner will decide who goes through to the Quarterfinals - if Clermont is the loser the team has al chance to go through as well – provided they pick up a bonus point in the game. A loss by Saracens will take them out of the competition

Pool 2

Leinster - 18

Wasps - 16

Harlequins - 13

Harlequins fouled up badly in the game this weekend by losing to Wasps. This coming weekend will be the decider as to who goes through to the quarterfinals. Wasps is playing Leinster and Harlequins is up against Castres. A must-win situation for either Wasps or Leinster – likely winner Leinster. Even a bonus point loss by Leinster will eliminate Harlequins from the competition.

Pool 3

Toulon - 18

Leister Tigers - 13

Toulon is playing Scarlets and Leicester is playing Ulster this coming weekend. Even a bonus point loss by Toulon will eliminate Leicester Tigers from the competition – they cannot make the quarters with only 18 points

Pool 4

Toulouse - 16

Bath Rugby - 15

Glasgow - 14

The pool of death – this one. Bath is playing Glasgow and the loser will be eliminated – irrespective of what happens in the other game. If Bath wins without a bonus point – it would take them to 19 points – Glasgow will have to win with a bonus point to get to that figure. Toulouse is playing Montpellier and is likely to win. If they lose – they are likel to be out of the competition – since they will be short of the 19 points needed to go through to the quarterfinals.

Group 5

Racing Metro - 19

Northampton Saints - 19

The two teams mentioned are playing each other this weekend and the winner will win the pool – but the loser on 19 points is also virtually assured of going through to the quarterfinals.

Now who do you think will be the top 8 teams going through to the quarterfinals? My own guess is -

Cermont Auvergne

Leinster

Toulon

Toulouse

Racing Metro

Northhampton Saints

Bath Rugby

???????????

becs

Pro4,378 posts

becsPro4,378 posts

19 Jan 2015, 11:54

19 Jan 2015, 11:54#2

It's still very much up in the air, Mike.
Toulon are the only side to have qualified thus far, but the English teams had a cracking weekend. Potentially three of them could qualify with home Quarter Finals.

clevermike

Coach57,555 posts

clevermikeCoach57,555 posts

19 Jan 2015, 13:10

19 Jan 2015, 13:10#3

becs
The three teams that potentially can qualify are Saracens, Bath and Northampton Saints I believe. Saracens is going to have a hard time against Clermont - especially as it is an away game. If they lose that game, they are out of the competition - since even with a bonus point loss they will only have 18 points - not enough to go through to the quarterfinals.
Nothampton Saints are through - irrespective of what happened - but if they beat Racing Metro they can qualify for a home quarterfinal.
I am hoping Bath beats Glasgow - if they do they have a very decent chance of going through - hope Toulouse loses - then the team of has- beens would be out of contention.

Ceradyne

Pro9,374 posts

CeradynePro9,374 posts

19 Jan 2015, 13:16

19 Jan 2015, 13:16#4

I agree that it is difficult to predict who will end up where but you have to understand how this competition works. The five winners of the pools go through by default. The next three places are made up of the best second places. At the moment the three teams "going through" are Racinhg Metro, Saracens and Wasps but, as Mike has said, things can change in the next round.

Pool 1.
Clermont at home is a different beast and they are not easily beaten on home soil. Last season an unbeaten home winning streak of 70 odd games was broken when they lost to Castres. So for Saracens to beat them at home is possible but it will be a tough ask. To say that a loss would mean the end of Saracens is bot quite accurate. It depends a lot on what happens in the Bath/Glasgow, Northampton/Racing Metro, Wasps/Leinster and the Ulster/Leicester Tigers games.

Let's assume for a moment that Clermont beats Bath

Bath is ahead of Glasgow in their pool and it is a home game for Bath, so my guess is that Bath could beat them. That would push Bath ahead of Saracens

Wasps have a home game against Leinster. This is a crunch game for both teams. Wasps have to win to stay in the running and Leinster have to win not to loose their default spot. They are through, provided that they do not lose to Wasps. Problem is that they have not really convinced in away games. Their only away victory was against Castres, who are in a massive slump this season. I would go with Wasps by a whisker. That would push Saracens down another notch.

I think that Saints would be too strong for Racing Metro, especially when they play at home but RM is ahead of Saracens in any case.

That leaves Ulster and Leicester. Ulster have only had one win so far but they have home advantage. This is also a toss-up but I would go with Ulster by a whisker. That would leave Saracens ahead of Leicester but still out of the competition. Saracens' only chances, IMO, are if either Glasgow can manage to beat Bath or Leinster manage to beat Wasps.

Pool 2.
This pool can still deliver a surprise. If Quins can beat Castres, which is quite possible, it would put more pressure on Wasps to beat Leinster. A win by Quins and a loss by Wasps would mean the end of the road for Wasps.

Pool 3.
I think that one is settled. I cannot see Llanelli beating Toulon and that would leave Toulon and Leicester at the top.

Pool 4.
Also settled IMO. I do not see Jake's crowd beating Toulouse. The only chance of a change in the order is if Glasgow can upset Bath.

Pool 5.
Settled as well unless Racing Metro comes up with a big surprise and beat Saints.

A nice reflection of the standings with the current ranking of the second places can be found here: http://www.flashscores.co.uk/rugby-union/europe/european-rugby-champions-cup/standings/?t=OAmG86y6&ts=QgvYLJ1S

clevermike

Coach57,555 posts

clevermikeCoach57,555 posts

19 Jan 2015, 14:07

19 Jan 2015, 14:07#5

Ceradyne
In the main I obviously agree with you, but as far as I know the second place positions are determined by the point standing of the second placed teams. Any team with less than 19 points are unlikely to survive - unless they can reach the 19 point cut-off.
There are only 1 pool - where both the two leading teams are on 19 points and that is Northampton and Racing Metro. Both are virtually assured of going through - because of the other teams only Bath can make 20 points and end up ahead of them On the other hand if Toulouse wins - they will go through and if Bath wins so will they. The Toulouse, Bath, Wasps pool is the problem pool. There are too many options to consider here. If Toulouse beats Montpellier - they will go through and a victory by Bath would secure a quarterfinal place in any event. A Glasgow victory over Bath will in essence be meaningless - they will only get to 18 points and unless it is not a bonus point victory, they will lose out.
I really believe a second-placed team with 18 points or less is not going to make the quarterfinals - so lets wait and see.

Ceradyne

Pro9,374 posts

CeradynePro9,374 posts

19 Jan 2015, 15:05

19 Jan 2015, 15:05#6

Although the 19 points is a factor, it is not hard and fast. Fact is that only three of the second placed sides can go through to the next phase and that is determined by their points on an "overall log" so to speak. The way that this season has gone, it appears that you are basically stuffed if you do not have at least 19 points. Theoretically there can be five sides ending up with 19 points each and still only three will proceed. The top three places of the "second finishers" are determined in the normal way, i.e. PA/PA TF/TA, etc.

Toulon (Group 3) do not have 19 points but they will go through, unless they lose to Llanelli AND Leicester beat by something in the order of 60+ points.

The one group where both the top two are on 19 could still have an interesting end is Group 5, as you have said, and we could see a side on 19 points not going to the next stage. If Saints beat Racing Metro and RM do not get a bonus point they (RM) will remain on 19. If all of Saracens, Wasps and Bath win their games and Bath wins gets a bonus point, it could mean the end of the road for RM. But, as I said, I don't see Saracens beating Clermont at home. The crux for RM is to get at least a bonus point against Saints to be sure that they would proceed.

clevermike

Coach57,555 posts

clevermikeCoach57,555 posts

19 Jan 2015, 22:04

19 Jan 2015, 22:04#7

Ceradyne
You miss my point entirely. If you look at the log positions at present - it is evident and highly possible that their would be at least 3 second placed on the log in the five pools with 19 points. That is my point of view and is confirmed by the present log positions and the winning chances on Saturday.
Pool 1 - Both Saracens and Clermont can potentially go through - - but a loss without a bonus point will mean Saracens wit the best of luck can only reach 18 points. That would not affect for instance Saints or Racing metro - who already are already on 19 points.
Pool 2 - If Wasps beat Leinster - they will go through with 20 points on top of the log. However, if Leinster loses and gets a losing bonus point they will be on 19 points If Leinster beats Wasps they will go through. Harlequins only has 13 points and even a win by them would take them to 17 points or with a bonus point to 18 points - which put their chances to go through at about minus-zero.

Pool 3 - Leicester Tigers have no chance in hell. Even a bonus point win will take them to 18 points - no threat to any team on 19 points.
Pool 4 - My guess is that both Toulouse and Bath will win their games and qualify to go through to the quarters, since in such a case - Bath will have at least 19 points
To my mind the following teams are pretty sure of going through:-
Pool 1 - Clermont - even if hey lose with a bonus point - they will have 19 points. Saracens can only go through if they win on Saturday - which I doubt they will.
Pool 2 - Leinster may end up on 19 points even if the lose by 7 or less points - ie get a losing bonus point. Even with a bonus point win Harlequins can only get to 18 points.
Pool 3 - My guess is that both Toulouse and Bath will win their matches - in that event Toulouse will be top of the log and Bath on 19 or 20 points. Both should win - and if they do - they are both going to go through to the quarters.
Pool 4 - Toulon will go through.
Pool 5 - Since bot teams are already on 19 points - both will go through.

becs

Pro4,378 posts

becsPro4,378 posts

19 Jan 2015, 22:27

19 Jan 2015, 22:27#8

Again, I will stress that Toulon are already through !!! They have qualified already and are the only side that have done so.
Three English teams have the potential to qualify, all with home Quarters.
There is a lot still to play for.

becs

Pro4,378 posts

becsPro4,378 posts

24 Jan 2015, 21:01

24 Jan 2015, 21:01#9

Thus far, Racing have topped the Pool by thrashing Saints at Franklin's Gardens in a terribly poor match by us but a very good performance by them. They have guaranteed a home QF so we now have to travel, probably to Toulon ( oh joy ! ) but it is tbc.
Harlequins thrashed Clermont but it was all in vain as Wasps managed a draw with Leinster ( Madigan missing a match winning Penalty for Leinster and Goode missing a DG at the final whistle for Wasps ) The draw put Quins out of the running for a runners up spot.
As it stands, with matches still to play, Northampton, Wasps and Saracens are the English teams playing away matches in the next round, with Saints being the only certainties.

clevermike

Coach57,555 posts

clevermikeCoach57,555 posts

24 Jan 2015, 22:18

#10

24 Jan 2015, 22:18#10

Becs
I am not sure what the quarterfinals will look like in the Champions Cup. If Saracens play as badly as Northampton did today - they will be out of the competition as well. The other English Club with a chance to go through to the quarters is Bath.
The only Clubs certain to go through are:-
Pool Leaders
Pool 2 - LeinsterPool 3 - ToulonPool 5 - Racing Metro
Runners Up
Pool 5 - Northampton Saints
The other 4 positions will only be clear tomorrow. If Toulouse beat Montpellier and Bath beats Glasgow tomorrow - both teams will go through to the quarter-finals. However, things will only be clear tomorrow evening after the Pool 1 and Pool 4 matches have been finalized.
For Saracnes it all depends on a win tomorrow or - if they lose, to lose by 7 or less points. If they lose by a wider margin the chances of them going through is non-existent. .

becs

Pro4,378 posts

becsPro4,378 posts

25 Jan 2015, 16:55

#11

25 Jan 2015, 16:55#11

ToulonLeinsterBathRacing are all home QF's
Wasps and Saints are also through.
The other match is still to play.

Ceradyne

Pro9,374 posts

CeradynePro9,374 posts

26 Jan 2015, 10:56

#12

26 Jan 2015, 10:56#12

19 Points? Both Wasps and Saracens in the QF. Wasps with 18 points and Sa racens with 17 points.

— END OF THREAD —

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