https://www.thepress.co.nz/sport/360614848/how-frances-top-14-final-could-decimate-touring-squad-face-all-blacks
ANALYSIS: It is common knowledge that France will send a weakened squad to New Zealand for three tests against the All Blacks in July, but it is probably not yet appreciated just how much weaker the French could be.
Les Bleus coach Fabien Galthie signalled as far back as last June that he wouldn’t be taking a full-strength squad, with media reports at the time suggesting that he would wrap a group of 20 top players in laine de coton - cotton wool.
The timing of that pronouncement probably caught New Zealand Rugby more by surprise than the substance, with the French following a similar policy for their most recent south hemisphere tours, to Australia and Argentina.
However, that original report could actually turn out to be a best-case scenario, given further French details on the strategy and, most importantly, the state of play in the Top 14 competition in France.
The Top 14 final is due to take place on June 28 in Paris, local time, just one week before the All Blacks play France in Dunedin.
If, as is possible, the final is between Toulouse and Bordeaux, it would decimate Les Bleus’ touring squad, because the French have already indicated that no one who plays in the Top 14 final will go to New Zealand.
To put it into context, that would mean that not one backline player who played in the demolition of Ireland in Dublin last weekend will face the All Blacks in July - and that includes replacement halfback Maxime Lucu.
It would also rule out the possibility of All Blacks fans getting to watch the brilliant Louis Bielle-Biarrey, the Bordeaux winger who is arguably the most exciting outside back in world rugby at present.
Neither Bielle-Biarrey nor Lucu were named in Galthie’s initial protected list of 20 players, but they still are unlikely to tour if their Bordeaux side advances to the decider.
At present, the French national side is dominated by players from Bordeaux and Toulouse.
Aside from the entire Toulouse-Bordeaux backline in Dublin last weekend, a further eight Toulouse forwards were part of the matchday 23
Unsurprisingly, Toulouse and Bordeaux are on track to contest the Top 14 final - as they did last year - with the clubs currently sitting at No 1 and No 2 in the Top 14 standings.
There is nothing to say that France still won’t be able to send a decent squad.
Judging by the squad they sent to Argentina last year, Galthie did select some (but not all) test players from the beaten Top 14 semifinalists.
The fact they drew the series 1-1 with Los Pumas also strengthens the argument that French depth is so impressive at the moment they can justify resting their top-liners.
But no one should be under any illusions that the French are simply prioritising their domestic competition in July, betting (probably safely) that World Rugby lacks the stomach for a fight against one of the game’s two biggest rugby economies.
Super Rugby Pacific finishes two weeks before the first All Blacks-France test in Dunedin, and even that window provides Scott Robertson and his coaches with a limited amount of preparation time.
But the later finish of the Top 14 season is why the French will be so undermanned in New Zealand. One week makes all the difference, especially when you have to travel to the other side of the world to take on a hungry All Blacks side.
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