It is difficult to do an assessment on this game because there are two difficulties the lions encountered or will encounter, namely -
* the loss of both their centers; and
* potential focus problems since they may have mentally one foot on the plain psychologically to get home.
However, there are a very important issue that can give the Lions the upper hand in that game - normally the functioning of the Lions Tight 5 - especially in scrumming and other facets of tight play. Sp lets consider this issue carefully:-
* The Highlanders lost their first game against the Blues because their forwards struggled in that game;
* The Brumbies wiped the floor with the Hurricanes in their first match and the main problem was the poor performance of the Tight 5 of the Hurricanes. Bearing that in mind the situation is basically that the Hurricanes in fact has a crinkle paper Tight 5. In round 2 the Highlanders met the Hurricanes and even struggle to win the match - with a Tight 5 that came under pressure at time.
Based on the above it seems to me that the Highlanders does not have the Tight 5 to compete with the Lions Tight 5 - so that is a big plus for them.
The second issue from a Lions perspective is to be tight in defense and guard against aimless kicking - Ben Smith is the most dangerous player in the Highlanders side and he will let them pay if aimless kicks are used as means to counter-attack. Ball in hand and clever play is the answer in this case.
After the performance against the Chiefs I give the Lions a 52% chance to win the game. I personally do not believe the Highlanders are the same match-winners they were last year.
Coach57,555 posts
09 Mar 2016, 16:47
#1
09 Mar 2016, 16:47#1
