There is some really interesting games coming up this weekend - no NZ, Australian or SA derbies this weekend. The Crusaders and Sunwolves have byes.
NZ Teams
The other four NZ teams are up against -
* Chiefs against the Sharks (at home)* The Blues against the Rebels (at home)* The Highlanders against the Brumbies (at home)* The Hurricanes against the Lions (away)
On paper all four NZ teams have a reasonable chance of winning the four matches they are playing - but my own guess is that it will not happen.
The Chiefs have been troubled with injuries and so has the Sharks. The latter has also got a weird team taking the field and that may count against them. If the Chiefs can get enough good balls against the Sharks forwards they should have an easy win - but I am not sure of that. However, i give with home town advantage the Chiefs a 60% chance of winning this game.
The Blues have not been hot in their recent games and they may be up against it playing the Rebels - whom after last week will be on a high. The Rebels at present heads the Australian Group and will fight like hell to remain on top. However, the Rebels are spotty travellers and I give the Blues home game advantage. The latter team has a 55% chance of winning the game.
The Highlanders is playing the Brumbies and here there is a very real problem in forecasting the outcome. The Brumbies comes of a number of losses - the last one a really embarrassing one. Even in the games they won there is no sign that they would have better form this coming weekend. Even though the Highlanders lost their last game against the Sharks - they lost the battle up front and one has to bear in mind that they played with 14 men a large part of the game. The Highlanders form has also been slightly spotty and one cannot help but think the game would be a 50-50 one. The Hurricanes has one advantage - namely the injuries that has disrupted the Lions props and their best hooker. However, the issue here is that the Lions are at home and will still be a fighting force. I cannot help - but think the Hurricanes only has a 45% chance of beating the Lions.
Australian Teams
There are two home games for Australian teams - namely -
* The Force against the Bulls; and* The Reds against the Cheetahs
I do not think the Force have got a chance to beat the Bulls and my forecast is that the Bulls willhave an easy win against the Force.
One never has a real chance to know how the Cheethas is going to perform - it depends entirely which Cheetahs team is taking the field. In round 8 the Cheetahs played like champions and in round 9 like losers. The Reds have been unlucky in some respects during their SA Tour and really played well at times during their games in SA. I think they have a 55% chance of winning the game.
SA Games
The SA teams with home games are -
* The Lions against the Hurricanes; and* The Stormers against the Waratahs
The Lions - Hurricanes game has already been dealt with above,
The Stormers can win the game against the Waratahs - whose form has been spotty this year. However, their ball handling and general play in Round 9 was unsatisfactory. A marked improvement would be needed - but I still give the Stormers a 55% chance of wining the game.
Argentina
They Jaguares has home game against the Kings and I think they will have an easy win in this case.
Coach57,555 posts
27 Apr 2016, 08:41
#1
27 Apr 2016, 08:41#1
