OPINION: The spin
doctors tell us it's going to be a "#bangbang" season of Super Rugby,
and have rehashed an old pop ditty to ram it down our throats. The worry, though,
is that a new expanded, diluted and confusing competition will deliver less
bang for its buck and a whole lot more mediocrity.
OPINION: The spin
doctors tell us it's going to be a "#bangbang" season of Super Rugby,
and have rehashed an old pop ditty to ram it down our throats. The worry,
though, is that a new expanded, diluted and confusing competition will deliver
less bang for its buck and a whole lot more mediocrity.
That, of
course, is to be determined. With two new frontiers, in Argentina and Japan,
and three new teams (the Jaguares, Sunwolves and the return of the Kings)
spread across four conferences (instead of three), there's certainly a fresh
look.
New
Zealand teams have won this event in 13 of its 20 years ? almost double the
combined efforts of South Africa and Australia (seven). They have also been
runners-up on nine occasions. And there's no reason to think Kiwi teams won't
again be to the fore when the 21st edition of Super Rugby kicks off
on February 26, with the Blues hosting the defending champ Highlanders.
Sure,
there's been a cleanout of elite talent. Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Conrad
Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Charles Piutau have all
either departed or retired. And the usual swag of respected mid-level
campaigners have headed off to grab pensions.
But the New Zealand rugby factory continues to churn out the talent, and all five Kiwi franchises will start with ambitions of going all the way. Why not? Nobody picked the Highlanders last year, and Jamie Joseph's men showed exactly what can be achieved with a strong culture, hard-working forwards and a hefty dose of backline brilliance.
So here are my five big storylines of 2016:
Can Tana revive the Blues?
Umaga is
the right man for this job. He's hugely respected and is well down the track to
being a quality coach. But this is his first taste of running a team at this
level, and it's unfair to expect him to turn this ailing franchise around
overnight.
I see Umaga's job as a two to three-year project, and the best Blues fans
should expect this year is a more competitive team playing with more
organisation and a lot more heart. Umaga has some outstanding talent, he is
glaringly absent a world-class No 10 and probably a No 9 as well. Last time I
looked no one had won a Super Rugby title without an elite first-five running
the show.
Umaga has a solid core of All Blacks, including Pat Tuipulotu back from injury and Rene Ranger from his travels, and some outstanding young talent. Akira Ioane is the most exciting prospect in the NZ game, butis juggling sevens in 2016.
Can the Highlanders and Hurricanes back up?
These were the success stories of 2015. The Hurricanes played the best rugby in the competition until the very end, and the Highlanders flew beautifully under the radar to nab their first championship in scintillating style.
The Highlanders should not sneak up on anyone this season.
Coach But Jamie Joseph, in his final campaign, has a squad capable of contending again, with almost all of his key men back – Liam Squire and Luke Whitelock offset the loss of Nasi Manu – and a team again set to be built around the explosive abilities of Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Malakai Fekitoa.
The Canes have a huge hole to fill in midfield but there's still enough talent and depth to suggest another finals run is not beyond them. Any team with Nehe Milner-Skudder in it is sure to be fun to watch.
Who's got more to prove ? the Crusaders or Chiefs?
Tough one. They have both slipped a little, with the Crusaders missing the post-season altogether in 2015 and the Chiefs predictably eliminated in the first round. But given their remarkable Super Rugby record, it has to be the Crusaders.
In a funny sort of way the departure of All Blacks McCaw and Dan Carter might actually help. The Highlanders have shown that less is more when it comes to internationals at Super Rugby time and maybe Todd Blackadder will be able to build a tighter, more unified group in his final year. He needs to manufacture a new No 10 to guide their fortunes and find some much-needed backline X-factor.
I like the squad Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has put together. Plenty of unheralded workhorses to complement the smattering of stars, and looks his sort of group. Keep an eye on Brad Weber and Damian McKenzie, too.
Who's playing for All Black spots?
Coach Steve Hansen will say everyone. But the reality is loosehead prop, openside flank, first five and midfield are the four key holes to fill.
The three-way battle between Beauden Barrett, Aaron Cruden and Lima Sopoaga for the No 10 jersey to face Wales should be a peach; Malakai Fekitoa, Charlie Ngatai, George Moala and Ryan Crotty shape as midfield contenders; Sam Cane should get the No 7 job by default given Ardie Savea's sevens commitments; and we may have to wait another year for Akira Ioane to force his way in.
It's also a big season for forgotten men Cory Jane and Israel Dagg to revive their flagging careers?
What does the new expanded system mean for Kiwi teams?
There are now four conferences (easy enough), split between two regions (Australasia and South Africa, including the Japanese and Argentina teams). In the New Zealand conference teams play six games against fellow Kiwi sides (down two on last year), five against the Australian pool and four against one of the two South African conferences.
At the end of the regular season the four conference winners qualify to host sudden-death quarterfinals, joined by the next three best from Australasia and the best runner-up from "South Africa".
That's a potential for four New Zealand sides in the quarterfinals, but more likely three. The big doubts surround how competitive the new Kings and Sunwolves franchises will be – not very is the simple answer..
- Stuff
