WEEKEND PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS
AFRICA CONFERENCE
Reds v Cell C Sharks (Brisbane, Friday 11.00)
There is a lot of talk of the Sharks being in a good position in that they get their tour behind them early, but that will depend on how their two match trip turns out. Two defeats wouldn’t do much for the confidence, and this opening match is crucial for them. Both teams have made personnel changes since last year, and that makes Suncorp Stadium game even more difficult to call than it would normally be in a first match.
The players the Reds have gained are former Brumbies captain Stephen Moore, the well-travelled and evergreen George Smith and pacey No 8 Scott Higginbotham. Quade Cooper is now also back from his travels on what looks like a permanent basis. Those gains more than compensate for the loss of Saia and Anthony Fainga’a.
The big loss for the Sharks is a man who didn’t play much of a role in 2016 anyway because of injury. Marcell Coetzee is now playing overseas, and Philip van der Walt finds himself thrust into the role of opensider at Suncorp. The other players the Sharks have lost are Dale Chadwick, Kyle Cooper, Renaldo Bothma (not that he played last year anyway), Paul Jordaan, Heimar Williams, JP Petersen, Joe Pietersen and Willie le Roux. The last mentioned departure has left space for young Curwin Bosch to get an opportunity to establish himself. The Sharks have gained the likes of Kobus van Wyk and Jacques Vermeulen from Cape Town and Clement Poitrenaud from France.
James Slipper captains a Reds side that looks strong at tight forward and in Brisbane it could be a tough night for the Sharks, but they do enjoy a good record at the venue.
Prediction: Sharks to scrape a narrow win.
Sunwolves v Hurricanes (Tokyo, Saturday 6.15am)
The Hurricanes will not repeat the horror of 2016, when they were thrashed by the Brumbies. Nehe Milner-Skudder did not make the trip to Tokyo but that has offered an opportunity to Beuaden Barrett’s brother Jordie to get a debut at fullback. They talk a lot in New Zealand about the younger Barrett’s potential, some say he is even better than big brother but that must surely be hyperbola. Still, the Kiwis are blessed with talent – plenty of it.
Prediction: Hurricanes to win by 20.
Toyota Cheetahs v Emirates Lions (Bloemfontein, Saturday 3.05pm)
The Cheetahs are everyone’s second team so there will be many hoping they can repeat last year’s Currie Cup success. In terms of backing up domestic success with a good Super Rugby performance, the Lions did show that it can be done. But historically, winning the Currie Cup has proved a hindrance rather than a help to South African franchises, and coach Franco Smith will be hoping that the effort expended in the domestic competition doesn’t come back to bite in the form of injuries. His side cannot afford them.
At full strength the Cheetahs could certainly be a factor, particularly at home, and this game could be one of the best of the opening weekend. For once the Cheetahs haven’t lost too much in the off-season, with Lood de Jager’s departure to the Bulls being the only noteworthy change. But then he didn’t play a role in the Currie Cup win anyway.
The Lions have had some early season injuries and the team hadn’t been announced at the time of writing. They do have a lot of depth to their squad though and while the Cheetahs will push them hard, they should emerge with a confidence building opening win as they search for that momentum wave that swept them to the final last year.
Prediction: Lions by 10.
Southern Kings v Jaguares (Port Elizabeth, Saturday 5.15)
Shew, does anyone want to go through the list of players the Kings have lost and gained? It’s almost like they are a completely new team as they start out in their second season back in Super Rugby. They have lost Edgar Marutlulle, Steven Sykes, JC Astle, James Hall, Martin Ferreira, Aidon Davis, Louis Fouche, Elgar Watts, JP du Plessis, Lukhanyo Am, Stefan Willemse, Shane Gates, Jaco van Tonder and Jurgen Visser. They have gained Louis Schreuder, Ruan Lerm, Rick Schroeder, Lionel Cronje, Chrysander Botha, Neil Maritz, Ross Geldenhuys, Schalk van der Merwe, Chris Heiberg, Mike Willemse and others.
There hasn’t been too much change to the Jaguares’ unit since last season. The most important thing for them is that they need to get rid of their Achilles heel, which is poor discipline. It cost them on their last visit to Port Elizabeth. If they can overcome that, they shouldn’t only win on Saturday, they should win more regularly than they lose and be a real factor in their second season in Super Rugby.
Prediction: Jaguares by 10 to 15.
DHL Stormers v Vodacom Bulls (Cape Town, Saturday 7.30pm)
This is being billed as the match of the weekend locally and it certainly shapes up as an appetising introduction to the new season. The Stormers have a good Super Rugby record at home against the Bulls, and there has to be a reason for that. After their great win over the Lions at Newlands in their final warm-up game, they might start as slight favourites. But the Bulls have been in good pre-season form too and my money says they have more established depth than the Stormers do. So if you want me to stick my neck out, I’d say Stormers to win on Saturday but Bulls to win the war by topping the conference.
The Bulls’ most notable off-season buy was obviously Lood de Jager, but the other big positive change from last year is the return of Handre Pollard. The Springbok pivot will make a world of difference to their game. In time, when he has recovered fitness, so should Jan Serfontein, but the Bulls boast enough depth at centre – Burger Odendaal – even without him.
The Stormers are excited about the progress that it appears they are making in their quest for a more attacking game, and their big strength could be the New Zealand skills coach they acquired during the off-season. Certainly there is a lot of talk among the Stormers about how differently they have done things over the past few months, and then there is also the prodigious talent coming through from the age-groups. The problem is that they need wise heads around them when they come into the top flight for the first time, and the Stormers have lost a few of those so they can’t afford any more injuries.
Prediction: Stormers to score narrow win.
AUSTRALASIAN CONFERENCES
Rebels v Blues (Melbourne, Thursday 10.45am)
Prediction: Rebels to win.
Highlanders v Chiefs (Dunedin, Friday 8.35am)
Prediction: A lottery really but Highlanders have home ground advantage.
Crusaders v Brumbies (Christchurch, Saturday 8.35am)
Prediction: Crusaders by 10.
Waratahs v Western Force (Sydney, Saturday 10.45am)
Prediction: Waratahs by 10 to 15.
