Only 6 incumbent Boks will be < 30 by RWC15

Looking at our team versus the Poms we only have 6 less than 30 years old by the RWC. ....Etzebeth 24, Vermeulen 29, Lambie 25, Hougaard 27, de Jongh 27 and JP 29. Of those only JP, Lambie and Etzebeth are virtual certainties if they stay healthy.

That suggests a fairly significant turnover of players has to occur....probably more significant than has already occurred under Meyer. But where are the players to replace Jannie, Juandre Kruger, Alberts etc? As we found with the likes of Daniel, Coetzee, Potgieter,  Taute, Jantjies, Mvovo  etc rushing youngsters into the team when they aren't ready to play at test level, achieves nothing. In fact it just makes it harder for these players if and when they are ever ready to play test rugby.

The problem seems to be particularly pressing in the front row, where even our best youngster Kitshoff was unable to provide any go forward at loosehead....even in the CC. Centre, wing and loose forward also look concerning.

There are plenty of good young players who will look good in the S15, precious few who are likely to be test ready this year.

 -Jannie is average and we should find a decent replacement for him

 -Juandre Kruger is not really up to standard, he is ok but we should have better now and in 2015. to some degree A Bulls quota selection

 -Alberts will be a loss. 

 -Daniels is not a youngster and just does not fit into the Meyer game plan. If we played a faster tempo game it would probably fit him better maybe.

 -Coetzee had an exceptional year in both Super XV and test level. He will be in the test picture this year and may take alberts spot

 -Potgieter should never have been in the squad. A Bulls quota selection

 -Taute should never have been in the squad. He has proved nothing at outside center and replicated this at test level. He is pretty big for a backline player and likely how he came into the reckoning.

 -Jantjies is average, depth at flyhalf is a major problem,

 -Mvovo is good in some respects, but 2012 at test level was a disaster.

I agree Coetzee, along with Goosen have a shot. I think young Jordaan is undervalued. To make several big breaks in a  S15 final in NZ is a significant accomplishment. Meyer made a mistake going with Taute versus Jordaan. I can't say Steph du Toit looked the part in 2012, but he is young and could still develop.

My guess is we will have to find some mid to late career players, as we did with Louw and Vermeulen this year....there just aren't enough 21 year olds with test potential by 2015.

Mozart

This is a problem I pointed out last year already and where I said that we will have to start bringing in younger players sooner rather than later.   But there were insistence to keep playing players that was seriously out of form and who should never have been in the team.

Looking at the situation I was of the opinion that we must consider the fact that some younger players would pass the grade - whilst others would fail and then should be replaced by other players until we find the correct combination to go through to 2015 - a mere two years away.

We can expect that the following older players would have to go for a variety of reasons but mainly for the reason that they -

  *  are barely average performers -  Kirchner,  De Jongh, De Villiers, Pienaar, Alberts, Du Plessis and Steenkamp: and

  *  are becoming injury-prone and have health prolems, bearing in mind that older players tend to get injured more frequently and  take longer to recover.

I really am not despondent about the situation at all - because I can see the value of some of the younger players about which constant negative remarks are made in this forum.

I would think the following players are in fact available or knocking on the door for selection:-

15   Taute was an excellent full back for the Lions and he should never have been selected to play at center.   He will get his opportunity to show his value at full back for the Stormers this year and I am confident that he would make the grade.   The back up player is going to be Swiel - the ball sense wiz kid.    

Wings  :   Although Habana will be 31/32  by the time of the next WC - he is one player that could go through to 2015.   Pietersen is a given - he will be 29 in 2015.   If Habana is not available anymore = than there players like Mvovo and Rhule that with more experience would become good performers     I am not particularly worried about the wing situation at all/

Centers :   Here the situation is really less problematic than people seems to think.   Francois Steyn may with huge question marks make the grade - but if he does not then there are a number of options available.   Our center performances last year was wicked and the best one was De Villiers - whose performance could be put down as average.   In any event De Villiers wont be available in 2015   On the positive side we cannot bring in younger players who are worst than the centers used in 2012.   Of the younger centers we have Jordaan (the best performer in 2012 in his position at 13),  De Allende. Howard. Serfontein  and Small-Smith - all better players than we used this year.   In summary I think the youngsters will perform better than what we have at present.

Flyhalfs :   I have no problem with Lambie and Goosen as out future flyhalfs.     

Scrummies :   A bit more of a problem - Hougaard has limitations and Pienaar will be out by 2015.   I like two youngsters in Reinach and Groom, but Schreuder is also highly thought of for the future.

Loosies  :   Have no problem with Louw, Vermeuen and Coetzee as the starters and we in fact have an over-supply of younger loosies that could come through.

Locks   :    Here again -- no problem.  Eizebeth is a given and there are really good prospects in Du Toit and othr youngsters coming through.   We will still have the best lock combination in the WC and am not worried at all.

Props  :   The Stormer props Kitshoff and Malherbe will be much stronger in two years time and the support props can come from a number of other players coming through

Hookers :  Bismarck and Strauss will still be around.

I have been saying this before and I am repeating it now - esperience without performance lead us nowhere.   I think that the 2013 Suer 15 series should give us a clear indication   of who are the best performers in their various positions and should  indicaate a way forward insofar as deveopment of players for the 2015 WC is concerned.   

If Meyer picks some duds for the tests this year - it will harm the development of a squad for the 2015 WC badly - and he better get it right asap.     

The S15 tends to give a lot of false positives. Hell even Watson looked good in the S15. All these youngsters have to prove they can play test rugby....this year we found only one for sure....Etzebeth. Despite trying many.

In 2008 we had to replace one Bok before the 2011 RWC.....in 2012 we knew we had to replace at least 8. 

Mozart

Other than Super 15 - we have no other real opportunities to identify playes for selection.  I said some will fail and other will succeed - so we have 2 seasons to come up with the best available players to go to the WC.

I refused to go to new Zealand for the 2011 WC exactly because we replaced one player from 2008 to 2011 - a really bad situation.  We kept the porkers and the useless way beyong their sell-by dates.   If there was a decent development and replacement programme in place - we would have done miles better than we did that time.   Players cannot be retained in a team based on reputation only and not performances and that was our death knell in 2011. 

Sorry duplication

Our B team, filled with youngsters was hammered in the TN. We only improved when the experienced chaps came back. And few would say our loss to Oz was a fair result.....that was the Lawrence debacle. We probably had a better shot at the 2011 RWC than the 2007....but keep on believing all we need to do is choose youngsters, and I'll keep on winning the arguments.

Lets hope HM keeps his eyes peeled this time, or his miss-selection will dearly cost us the required progress of the squad, which would altimately hamper our chances of winning the RWC 2015.

The selection of our centers was a deperate one last year, we did rely on JDV a lot, whom I believe has lost his pace and the lack of creativity in order to creat a platform from which our backs could launch an attack from.  At some point, even our wingers where seriously ignored.

If we fail to build a winning team this year, a team that will  beat weaker teams by some considerable margin; our dream of of getting a shot at the RWC 2015 is just a fantacy or a fairy-tale.   

There were plenty of examples, many of them on the defence, that showed Jean has not lost pace. What little backline skill we showed came from Jean and Habana , witness his brilliant juggling take to set up Habana's try. But I agree  Jean was much too predictable. These guys need a coaching catalyst, who will get them to try some new things....angles, passes, cuts etc.

Guys like Jordaan need to be in the setup. Why are we wasting our time with players like Taute and JJ Engelbrecht at centre when the answer is fit and ready to go!

I had a chuckle to myself when I read some bullshit on the fact that backline players do not get the space they need anymore due to some magical defensive patterns in the modern game. This is not correct or every team would be on an even keel...Its all about exposing the space that is there. Players with no vision at centre (ie. Taute and JJ) will make defenses look like brick walls more often than not because they are technically poor centres and lack the vision so try use their size to bash through which will rarely work. Fact is, if Taute makes 20 carries a game and crashes them all up, he has had a poor game!! Guys like Jordaan and Fourie would expose any slight opening more often than not. Just like some of the great centres NZL have at their disposal currently.

Big centres that crash are way less effective than a smaller centre who knows the position. Big = nothing when the guy defending you is within 5 to 10kgs of you either way and knows how to tackle as all international centres do! Maybe this works at junior school level where tackling techniques are poor but not in any senior level rugby and certainly not international.

Running into space is what we need. Forcing players to have to cover some ground to make the tackle. Then the ability to offload becomes huge. Drag your man across and have guys running off either shoulder. Thats how you break a "solid" defence down. It  rarely ever happens from 1st phase but with ball retention, gaps will appear. We have our big locks and loosies to perform a "crashing" role. We dont need centres that think their job is to crash and bash and that is why JJ and Taute showed little. JDV and Jordaan are the types we need. Francois Steyn has the ability to crash and he has the ability to see a gap and offload. He is our answer to Nonu. He just needs to find the form and condition that made him the great he was in the 2007 to before he left for France.

 Boklogic. My sentiments exactly. 

If it was true that therewas no space for a "modern" day center due to defensive systems, and because of this the center can only crash ball- then surely it would be better to have a fast loose forward playing at center who is typically bigger and stronger. 

Conrad Smith of the All Blacks routinely creates space for himself or his supporing players, either through deft passing before contact or offloads in contact, along with varying his running angles. 

Apart from Frans Steyn not many of our centers can offload in the tackle, and to many just run straight seeking contact and go to ground. 

Nice post BL I agree with pretty much everything you say there. With multiple phases you get space and you get mismatches....centres on locks etc. The point you make is these mismatches and space opportunities have to be fashioned.  A modern defence has to be manouvred out of position. How often haven't we seen some kind of hitch breaking down a defence....the JdV juggle, Mathew Tait pick up of the rolling ball in the RWC final. Getting out of the pattern is the key.

KKK good to see you as positive as ever about our youngsters and as out of touch as ever regarding the reasons we were so average in 2012.

Keep up the good work old fart, I was going to point out how out of touch you were but I can't be asked. Dead horse and all that.......hell if you cant get past Jean, Morne, Steenkamp, CJ and co as the test liabilities of 2012 then what's the point.

And yeah all that space created for centres after phase 26 and 27.........this from that stupid dunce Boklogic.....good one KKK, you know how to pick them.......brightboy Boklog, will add some value to your cause.......give him an early carrot!!

Saffex, this is a rugby post. Please lets keep it that way. We have other posts running that are of a childish nature that you can have a go at people on but we have decided to keep this one rugby related.

We dont need any further insults and name calling from you. We have heard it all before and nothing is original. I have nothing further to say to you. I have told you what I think of you and have offered you free airport transfers that you have wisely decided not to take up.

Aren't you like nearing 50 years old? Grow up man. You are a pathetic individual.

p.s..Where do you read anything from me about phase 26 or 27?? You are so ingrained with hate and insignificance that you make shit up and actually believe what you are saying. You not angry at us mate..Take a look at your parents!

Boklog what is 8 phases times 3 phases and add another 2 or 3 phases for good measure?

Not sure where 8 phases times 3 phases comes from. Who mentioned that?

Are you talking about the 8 phases you go through every weekend:

Phase 1: Go alone to the pub with your greasy hair and no jacket to fit you

Phase 2: Identify some poor girl to ruin her life

Phase 3: Buy copius amounts of drinks so she doesn't mase you in 5 mins

Phase 4: Talk lawyer stuff so she thinks, "oh well, he is short, fat and ugly but has money!" when back at the ranch you were shipped to do filing on the outskirts

Phase 5: Alcohol has worked a treat and you are the best thing since sliced bread

Phase 6: You take her home and show her the best 30 seconds of her life (at this point she is probably asleep)

Phase 7: She sobers up, looks at you and contemplates suicide!

Phase 8: You back on your computer where you are king and we all work for you

Not sure what this has to do with rugby Dave!!

Read through your phase 4 and you will see why I think you are a thick plank?

So you do clean toilets for a living, do they provide you with a white van?

No van but they do however, require you to grow your hair long, have some paedophile looking facial hair and have your mug shot outside a shack. Its a dirty job and you really need to look the part.

Shack?, thats a bench on my farm. Do you have issues with men having long hair. I've got it you are a conservative dutchman, still seeking that bit of Orange.

Are you going to answer some of my questions or do I need to take your silence as an admission of guilt?

Questions that ridiculous do not warrant answers.

Wrong again Dave. I am as English as they come...No problem with long hair on a guy. Some guys can pull it off. You on the other hand cant. (With that face you probably couldn't pull off short hair either!)

Was this also taken of you on your farm. Love the long hair!

Boklog, another serious question, are you gay - do you bat for the otherside? You mentioned a boyfriend?

Mozart

You still don't get it - do you?   You go on about so-called B-tea and do not understand that players performances gets worse as they get over 30.  Prime performances are between the ages of 25 and 30,   How many of the 2011 Springboks were over 30 years of age?   Way too many and the result could never be otherwise than actually happened.

Tou cannot select players on reputation only - you have to have performance as well,   By the time the 2011 WC came around we were struggling to win test matches and the signs were ominous,   If they started in 2009 to look critically at players in the Springbok team, a number of playes would have been replaced and that would have been better for the Springboks.   Don;t blame Lawrence for what happened - he was not the ref when we struggled badly against Wales in the WC - now was he?   We won by the skin of our teeth.

You carry on about how good De Villiers was in the recent test matches - I believe he was average and showed viery little attacking skills and that he was not the house on fire you make it out to be.  Compared to the other centers we used he looked good - but that is because in the land of the blind cock-eye is king.    He will not be around at 2015 and no amount of lamenting will help that.   

Let me explain more precisely.   We had NO replacement and team renewal strategy at all since 2007.  Come around 2011 and most of the players left the scene and in 2012 we had to start with a very inexperienced team as a result.   We were left with a very few good players - such as Habana and Pietersen, whilst some of the good ones like Bismarck was injured.  The rest of the so-called expeirienced players were average to poor - especially if  we look at overall perormances like those of De Villiers and Francois Steyn, but we also had disasters like Morne Steyn. De Jongh, Van der Linde and Steenkamp in the team.  Then there was Hougaard - who had a brain implosion in 2012.

What is the result?   The answer is we are forced to look at alternative players - but you do not acept that and whenever younger players come into the team you condemn them after one game and made out that they were to blame for the poor team perrformances.    The real culrpits are excomnerated - but the newer and younger players  criticized endlessly.    The question is wh of the experienced players really showed class in the Twickenham test and the answer is not many.   De Villiers was very average - bar for one try saving tackle.   Kirchner was average - Pietersen got no chances because of the disasters like De Jongh playing inside of him.   Pienaar had a poor game.  The list is virtually endless.   The one outstanding player was Etzebeth - a player you criticized earlier in the test series in 2012 by saying he was not proving himself.

But in the end - the issue here is not personal attacks - it is by a positive player selection strategy based on sustained performances.   There are in fact limited opportunties outside of test matches where player potential can be identified and the Super 15 is in a way the only series where initial pointers will be provided.   The real problem also exist that not all players that shine in Super 15 will make the grade on test level.  However, what is more certain is that experienced player who do not shine in Super 15 - will definitely fail on test level.

Meyer himself said that he made mistakes in player selection in 2012.   Anybody who said his mistakes were limited to less experienced players only will be wrong 

I earlier pointed out where we will have to look at alternative players and identified some that has shown some real flair on Super 15 level and CC level and also mentioned that some replacement players would create a better team than the existing ones - especially in the key positions lie at center and full back.   That cusedd huge drama - because I mentioned Taute at full back and De Villiers and Steyn.   Taute was our best full back in 2010 and 2011 and that was statistically proven.  He was moved to center n April 2012, because of injury to Lions players and Meyer made the mistake of selecting him in a position where he played only 3 games since 2009.   He was just not good enough as a center - so forget the situation and forget his full back performances in 2010-11 and just write him off as a player.    De Villiers was no real star and so was Francois Steyn.   The latter may have shown some off-loading and passing skills in the past - by 2012 he lost that and played ineffectual crashballing all the time,   When I said any future selection would be better than what we had in 2012 there was no direct answer - only further laments about how bad the disposal of De Villiers would be for the team   

No player is indespensible and the issue is that some are made indespensible by dubious comments about their performances to make them look like they are.   Let me assure you that 2012 was not a real success story - but 2013 and afterwards would be less so without a positive player renewal process.             

Saffex

I was hoping for some positive rugby-related comments - not the personal vendetta comments you came up with.   We by now know and am sick and tired of the fact that you and some other posters specializes in trying to make peope look bad personally - so any comments like those posted by you and boklogic is nothing new,   That will add no value to the  discussion we have here.  

Can you not look at the issue from a rugby-perspective and give positive imputs on this issue?  

Saff are you asking for your personal interests? In that case, even if I was gay, a face like yours would surely turn me straight again.. Its like you are stuck between a women with your hair and a man but dont pull either off particularly well.

Where have I ever mentioned "boyfriend" on here?

Come join us in the real world Dave. This is the world where you are short, fat, ugly and no one likes you. In your little world you are a deep chested, broad shoulder, hunk of a man. Ha ha, gets me everytime.. How do you get that from your profile pic??

Please keep any comments firected at me on the thread you have created in honour of me. Its not fair for others to read this shit and I was enjoying this post before you got involved. Much like your wife was enjoying her sex life...Better when you weren't involved!! ;-)

Saffex and boklogic

How much further down can your debate goes - not much.   First of all it started off about fat and short - now its onto gays and ugliess.   For heavens sake cean up your act and start debating rugby matters.  

I do not care about homophobia - although I am straight I must admit that some of the cleverest and most creative people I have met are homosexuals and I do not think a debate on that is called for on this site.because it would deteriorate into homphobia and worse.  Get a life and stick to rugby matters please.    

Ok Boklog, you claim to be straight, however I doubt that somehow

Do you get paid to clean toilets?