For one more week, every Super Rugby team is undefeated, and every team is a chance of the making the playoffs.
All teams have come together really well as a group, trained the house down, put in the hard yards, recruited well, plugged gaps, overcome weaknesses, and reset all clichés.
One week until kick-off, and all teams are equal. But some are more equal than others, and the predictions went so well last season…
Who are the favourites?
I hinted pretty strongly at this yesterday, but the Highlanders stand out as strong back-to-back chances for me this season.
They’re lost a few players here and there but no stars, and though they might have felt a bit lacking in the backrow at times last year, the additions of Liam Squire and Luke Whitelock go a long way to solving that problem. The Chiefs will probably be their main threat from within the New Zealand conference.
In Australia, the Brumbies just shade the Waratahs, but there’s not a lot between them. They’ll probably split their two games this season, and from there it will be a matter of who emerges best from a couple of not easy, but certainly not terrible draws.
In either African conference, it’s all a bit of a lottery currently. I could make half-decent arguments for the Stormers and Bulls in Africa 1, and likewise for the Sharks, Lions, and even Los Jaguares in Africa 2, but I wouldn’t wager even someone else’s money on any of them to win the title.
Take your pick. Just have a guess; that’s all I’d be doing…
The smokies?
For the title? I don’t think there is one in 2016, and maybe that’s partly because I picked the Bulls to be my smokies last year!
If I do have to name someone, then perhaps it’s the Hurricanes, but that will all depend on how quickly they’ve regrouped after the heartbreak of 2015 and probably how well they start the season.
And they don’t have the worst draw, either: Brumbies (away), Highlanders, Blues (away), Force and Kings heading into their first bye in Round 6. They could easily be 4-1 by then, by which stage we’d have to take them reasonably seriously.
Wooden spooners?
The Southern Kings. And by some distance.
Probably the surest thing in 2016.
Early tip for the disappointment of the season?
I really hope I get this one wrong, but I fear it will be the Western Force.
Once again they’ve started a season with a good trial win, and once again we hear the talk of unshackling their attack and playing more expansively. 2014 seems an eternity ago, and they should be positioned for a vastly improved season with recruits like Peter Grant, Jono Lance and Ben Tapuai.
They’ve got some really promising young players on their list, and after last year, the only way should be up.
But is there too much weight on their skipper, Matt Hodgson? In what sort of state of fitness has Ben McCalman returned from his championship season under Robbie Deans with Panasonic in Japan? And just how expansively can a 31-year-old flyhalf known for his kicking game really play?
Again, though, I really hope I’m wrong on this one.
Early tip for surprise packets of the season?
This one is a lot harder to pin down.
I’d love nothing more than for all three expansion teams to start strongly and carry on from there, but there is probably a well-reasoned expectation that all three sides will find out the hard way just how difficult the travel aspect of Super Rugby is going to be.
So while I think they’re wildcard smokies, I would be surprised if the Jaguares actually made the eight. Likewise, I’d be surprised if the Sunwolves won more than three games, and I’ll definitely be surprised if the Kings win more than one.
Maybe the big surprise will be if Richard Graham wins a contract renewal, which would mean the Queensland Reds have done way better than anyone expects. If the ‘rebuilding year’ goes gangbusters, and The Roar is full of crowing Queenslanders once again, then we’ll all be pleasantly surprised, especially the Queenslanders.
Biggest worry?
Last year I said it was refereeing, and that remains the case this year, with the nine debutants and another three with a handful of games to their name among the panel of 22 referees on the Super Rugby panel for 2016.
I think the biggest worry – in Australia, at the very least – is actually going to be that everything the game enjoyed late last year around the Wallabies’ Rugby World Cup tilt is going to quickly disappear.
There’s a real opportunity for the game to cash in on that good will and all the general rugby positivity that went with the Wallabies, and in many ways, the real shame is that we’ve had to wait nearly four months for Super Rugby to start up again.
So it’s on the ARU to get that message out there and promote the hell out of the new season locally, but it’s also on SANZAAR more broadly.
Things like free-to-air TV replays, free transport to Waratahs games in Sydney, and cheaper Brumbies memberships in Canberra is a good start, and indeed, all teams are doing their bit.
The governing bodies need to push the message further, though, in all markets. After what was widely seen as the best Rugby World Cup yet, Super Rugby in all its corners needs to pull out all stops to simply get more bums on seats.
Conference guesses
NEW ZEALAND: Highlanders, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Blues
AUSTRALIA: Brumbies, Waratahs, Rebels, Force, Reds
AFRICA 1: Stormers, Bulls, Cheetahs, Sunwolves
AFRICA 2: Sharks, Jaguares, Lions, daylight, Kings
WILDCARDS: Chiefs and Waratahs, and then the Hurricanes, Rebels, Bulls and Jaguares battling for the last two spots.
