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FORUM / RUGBY /  Super Rugby Round 3 preview panel; by By Darren Walton, the ROAR

Super Rugby Round 3 preview panel; by By Darren Walton, the ROAR

Started by Just_win10 REPLIES246 VIEWS· 10 Mar 2016, 08:07
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JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
10 Mar 2016, 08:07
#1
10 Mar 2016, 08:07#1

Friday, March 11

Blues v Hurricanes at Eden Park, Auckland, 5.35pm
Head to Head: Played 25, Blues 14, Hurricanes 10, drawn 1
In Auckland: Played 13, Blues 8, Hurricanes 5
Last clash: Round 15 2015 – Hurricanes 23 bt Blues 5 at Eden Park

The once-mighty Blues have won only one of their past dozen all-New Zealand battles but get a golden opportunity to restore some order against a winless and injury-hit Hurricanes outfit at home. Last year’s beaten grand finalists are without several key players and also have All Blacks Cory Jane, Nehe Milner-Skudder and Dane Coles in doubt as they look to avoid a fourth straight defeat, their longest run of outs since 2014. Blues coach Tana Umaga has made seven changes to his side beaten by the Crusaders, including naming Rene Ranger on the wing outside the returning Male Sa’u.

Tab Sportsbet: Blues $1.72, Hurricanes $2.15

Tip: Blues by six

Western Force v Brumbies at nib Stadium, Perth 10.05pm
Head to Head: Played 15, Force 4, Brumbies 10, drawn 1
In Perth: Played 8, Force 2, Brumbies 5, drawn 1
Last clash: Round 17 – Brumbies 33 bt Force 20 at nib Stadium

The Brumbies loom as the team to beat this year following big wins over the Hurricanes and Waratahs. The Force did the job against Queensland last week, but coach Michael Foley has raised eyebrows after opting to rest five of his starters for Friday’s clash with the Brumbies. Scrumhalf Alby Mathewson, hooker Nathan Charles, and lock Steve Mafi are among the players shifted to the bench in a move that could allow the ladder-leading Brumbies to run rampant.

Tab Sportsbet: Force $5, Brumbies $1.18

Tip: Brumbies by 18

Saturday, March 12

Highlanders v Lions at Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 5.35pm
Head to Head: Played 9, Highlanders 4, Lions 5
In Dunedin: Played 5, Highlanders 4, Lions 1
Last clash: Round 13 2015 – Lions 28 bt Highlanders 23 at Emirates Airline Park

The Highlanders have won their last six matches on home soil, their longest such streak since they won 13 consecutive home matches from 2000 to 2002. But the reigning champions face a tough task in the form of the undefeated Lions, who have won their last four matches away from home and five of their last eight against the Highlanders. Lions trio Harold Vorster, Lionel Mapoe and Fabian Booysen have all been ruled out, while the Highlanders have also rung the changes, resting Josh Hohneck and Tom Franklin.

Tab Sportsbet: Highlanders $1.25, Lions $4

Tip: Highlanders by 12

Melbourne Rebels v Queensland Reds at AAMI Park, Melbourne 7.40pm
Head to Head: Played 10, Rebels 2, Reds 8
In Melbourne: Played 5, Rebels 1, Reds 4
Last clash: Round 14 2015 – Reds 46 bt Rebels 29 at Suncorp Stadium

Surely the only way is up for the Reds, who hit rock bottom last weekend with a woeful loss to the Force and the inevitable sacking of Richard Graham that followed two days later. Whether interim co-coaches Matt O’Connor and Nick Stiles can inspire a better performance from such a thin squad remains to be seen. The injury-hit Rebels will be minus Reece Hodge, Nic Stirzaker, Scott Fuglistaller, Colby Fainga’a and Mike Harris as they seek a second win of the season.

Tab Sportsbet: Rebels $1.38, Reds $3.10

Tip: Rebels by 8

Sunwolves v Cheetahs at Singapore National Stadium, 9.50pm
Head to Head: first meeting

The Sunwolves were competitive in their 26-13 home defeat to the Lions in round one, and a week off has left them fresh to tackle the Cheetahs. Both sides are expected to struggle this season, making this game vital in the race to avoid the wooden spoon. The Cheetahs have only tasted one victory outside of South Africa in the past three years, but they’ll fancy their chances this week despite being in the unfamiliar surrounds of Singapore, which will be hosting a Super Rugby match for the first time.

Tab Sportsbet: Sunwolves $2.90, Cheetahs $1.40

Tip Cheetahs by 5:

Sunday, March 13

Kings v Chiefs at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth, 12am
Head to Head: Played 1, Kings 0, Chiefs 1
In Port Elizabeth: Played 1, Kings 0, Chiefs 1
Last clash: Round 5 2013 – Chiefs 35 bt Kings 24 at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

The Chiefs will be smarting after their upset loss to the Lions last week and that spells trouble for the Kings, who were hammered 43-8 by the Sharks in round one, the newcomers’ only 2016 outing so far. It seems merely a matter of by how many. The Kings have made four changes, most notably opting for Louis Fouche over Elgar Watts as five-eighth and playmaker.

Tab Sportsbet: Kings $7, Chiefs $1.10

Tip: Chiefs by 38

Stormers v Sharks at DHL Newlands, Cape Town, 2.05am
Head to Head: Played 25, Stormers 12, Sharks 13
In Cape Town: Played 12, Stormers 7, Sharks 5
Last clash: Round 18 2015 – Sharks 34 bt Stormers 12 at Kings Park Stadium

Only four teams made it out of the first two rounds of undefeated, and two of them meet here. The Stormers, statistically the best-tackling team in the competition after missing an average of only eight tackles per game so far this season, will be hopeful home ground advantage gives them the edge – but the loss of flyhalf Rob du Preez (knee) for the next 12 weeks will sting. The Sharks remain as physical as ever but have noticably picked up their defence as they seek a sixth straight Super Rugby win.

Tab Sportsbet: Stormers $1.45, Sharks $2.75

Tip: Stormers by 12

Bye
NSW Waratahs, Bulls, Crusaders, Jaguares

JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
10 Mar 2016, 08:09
#2
10 Mar 2016, 08:09#2
My picks:BluesBrumbiesLandersCheetahsChiefswee Stormers
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
10 Mar 2016, 08:27
#3
10 Mar 2016, 08:27#3
JW
Last week the odds on the Lions beating the Chiefs was 6/1 and the bookmakers made a killing.
This week the odds is 4/1,   I would say that the Highlanders should win - but I have no faith in their forwards being strong enough to take a stand against the Lions and I think that the Lions would have a 52% chance of winning the game. 
I am also not sure about the Stormer winning.   They have the stronger Tight 5 - but their backline is a shambles.   I would say the match is a close one and I tend to go with the Sharks in that one.
For the rest I agree with you.   
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
10 Mar 2016, 08:49
#4
10 Mar 2016, 08:49#4
 CleverMike, I have a soft spot for the Lions but not against the Chiefs 
The Lions will not be a push-over so the Chiefs will have to play well. Lions seem to be a decently balanced team in terms of backs & forwards, Chiefs are stronger in the backs than forwards. 
Chiefs will have to try &  make it a semi-structured game & win through loose play. Lions will need to try & play a structured game emphasizing set piece & then opening it up if they get a decent lead.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
10 Mar 2016, 09:10
#5
10 Mar 2016, 09:10#5
 JW
I am a bi t baffled about your message.  You wrote about the Chiefs that already lost against the Lions - do you mean the Highlanders in your above message?
My problem remains - I think the Highlanders have a huge backline advantage - but my problem is that a backline can only function if they get decent ball from the forwards and that is where the Highlanders is going to struggle.   Looking at what happened in the first two rounds the Highlanders is even weaker up front than the Chiefs was.  That could be a disaster for them.         
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
10 Mar 2016, 09:57
#6
10 Mar 2016, 09:57#6
 Ha ha CleverMike; I guess I made a Freudian slip on that one - I still want the Chiefs to beat the lions
Against the Landers the Lions will have a tougher time because the Landers are more balanced than the Chiefs were in last weeks game. Plus , as you say Lions are making changes to a team that played very well - I guess it is rotation.
BO
bobbok...Captain10,129 posts
10 Mar 2016, 09:58
#7
10 Mar 2016, 09:58#7
ccl
BO
bobbok...Captain10,129 posts
10 Mar 2016, 10:06
#8
10 Mar 2016, 10:06#8
ccl.
BO
bobbok...Captain10,129 posts
10 Mar 2016, 10:09
#9
10 Mar 2016, 10:09#9
 ccl.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
10 Mar 2016, 12:11
#10
10 Mar 2016, 12:11#10
 N ow the team has difficulty to get to Dunedin - That is bad new as well.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
10 Mar 2016, 18:27
#11
10 Mar 2016, 18:27#11
 I was watching Breakthrough and the panel was very hesitant about a Highlanders win on Saturday.   They believe the Highlander backline is better - but they have a problem with the pack.   Would be an interesting game to evaluate.
The Lions will after Saturday have finished two of their 5 games against SA teams.   They will have the  Blues, Crusaders and Hurricanes at home and that would be fun to watch.


     
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