History
The Boks have participated in fourteen Lions tours, and of those tours there record stands at 8 series wins, and four losses. They haven't lost a series since 1997, they also haven't won a series after losing the opening test. The closest being the 1955 series, where they lost the third test but went on to win the fourth, thus drawing the series. There is no fourth game in 2021, so history is against them. Their record in third tests stands at 50%, but so to is their record for second test. However, there is a noticeable drop in points and tries in those third tests. Aside from 1910 and 1997, their try count is rather low. In 1910, the Boks won the opener and had to overturn a beating in game two to seal the series. In 1997, the Lions had already won the series, so game three became a dead-rubber game like game three in 2009, where the Lions pummelled the Boks.
Here & Now
The Boks have been very limited, we all know that. The ball doesn't circulate around the backline, and possession amongst the forwards focuses on predictable bashing for minimal gains. The entire Bok pack ran 33 times for 44 metres overall. The Lions amassed 113m in game one, but got drawn into the Boks aerial battle and fell to 49m in game two. The Lions have amassed more breaks and defenders beaten, as well as more passes. The moved away from that strength, and as we saw, they are not equipped to win that battle. Despite common opinon, production from the bench was better than the Boks in game two. They'll need more of that on Saturday, but must ensure the Boks do not build a lead by that point in the game.
The Boks are expected to have dominance at the set pieces, but the Lions expertly avoided confrontation in the lineouts in game one by diverting away from the boot and keeping the ball in their hands. Last weekend, the Bok maul was devastating, and really sapped the life out of the Lions. Asphexiation is the Bok blueprint, and they are expected to kick often. Reinach comes in with a reputation for accurate kicking out of hand in the Premiership, and he'll need to be on point. A big responsibility rests on his shoulders. He does have a greater tendency to dart around the fringes than Faf or Jantjies, this could prove useful. His passing is not his greatest attribute though.
For the Boks possession rests heavily at 9, 10 and 12 with a very sharp drop-off thereafter. The looseforwards struggled to get their hands on the ball last week, and production was rather poor. The Boks were not going forward in contact, and instead allowed the Lions to get behind the defender and fight for precious yards. A repeat of this against a Lions side who will likely run the ball more often will be dangerous. The Boks must assert themselves in contact and get that momentum to open the game up.
Prediction
The Boks will show the best of themselves in game three. History is againts them, as stated above, but in a game of trenchwarfare, with the series hanging in the balance, the Boks will surely front-up. We have enough ammunition out wide to deal severe damage in quick bursts, and if Willie can start to pull some strings things can change dramatically. The Boks are due a good game, and this will be it. It may not be pretty at times, but they'll pull away. Boks by 15 .
Bettind Odds
British & Irish Lions: 11/13
South Africa: 6/4
Series Draw: 25/1
Lineups
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marco van Staden, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Morne Steyn, 23 Damian Willemse
British & Irish Lions: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Ali Price, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Courtney Lawes, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Mako Vunipola, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Sam Simmonds, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Finn Russell, 23 Elliot Daly
Date: Saturday, August 7
Venue: Cape Town Stadium
Kick-off: 18:00 local (17:00 BST, 16:00 GMT)
Referee: Mathieu Raynal
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe, Nic Berry
TMO: Marius Jonker
