The new Fibonacci

Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician that discovered the golden ratio of 1:1.618. Which predicts the effects of rabbits bonking, and all sorts of other phenomina. The most succesfull chartist on the US Stock Exchange uses a model based on the long dead Fibonacci.

Now we have a new search for a golden number. Apparently according to Sapp, a 100kg forward like Daniels is not too small to succeed in test rugby. But an 87kg centre like de Jongh is way too small. The question is, what is the nature of the inflection point, at what weight does it occur, is there a logarithmic effect for each kg above 90 kgs, which ceases at about 98 kgs.

Or is this just pure Fibbing?

Mozart

Mozart you know it is pointless to try and argue with Saffex on this issue.   He has his favourite players and nothing will change his mind.   That conception is based on fairy tales he conjures up - like the image he has conjured of Jantjies - it is so far removed from reality - it really is a joke.

Saffex has his favourite players and they can never do anything wrong.   Come along a Greyling and he would drop him from his list of favouites like a hot potato.

I really am looking forward to tomorrows game to see how the small Jordaan runs circles around another perrenial favourite of Saffex - namely the big Engelbrecht.   I think Jordaan is a better center than JP du Plessis of WP - who played the fool with Engelbrecht previously - so the same is likely to happen tomorrow.

You are the maths man Dr Moz you tell us?

As for JJ and Jordaan their weights are 95 and 90 kg. One can hardly say JJ is big and Jordaan small.

Fact  is 87 kg is  light for an international center.

Ah but you forget Mike.....JJs defence is incredibly handicapped by playing outside Morne. If not for that JJ would be a combination of Mannetjies Roux, Joggie Jansen and de Wet Barry on defence.

For me its not about how big the player is, but rather about the core strength. Jordaan's weight is 92, which isnt lightweight, he is very strong and doesnt get man handled in contact.

Dejong punches above his weight in defence, but thats it. He doesnt have the skill-set or rugby brain to be a international centre. So as dejong being too small....I dont believe that.I just dont rate him as a player.

If you make your tackles and dont get man-handled, then why do you have to be big?Being big and being strong on the field is two different things (ask Pierre Spies) 

JJ is a good example: He is big, but always gets man-handled when going in to make a tackle. His tackling technique is horrible, thats why I dont rate him.

Gio Aplon tackles just as well as any guy 20kg heavier than him, because he has core strength and a good tackling technique.

Keegan Daniels.....Alot of Sharks supporters have been calling for him to be in the bok squad, but personally, every single game he has played for the boks he was overpowered in every situation......(look so did Spies,but I wouldnt have him there either)

The weight is presumably an issue on defence. But the fact is de Jongh tackles damn well. He also gets the role of the defensive line, moving forward, cutting off space.  Bigger guys like Taute and and JJ  don't get that. JJ is a hopeless case. But Taute can tackle....what he doesn't get is the cutting off of space.....moving forward. In two of the AB tries he got exposed by being back on his heels. He should have moved into Dagg....he gave him too much space. And then when Conrad Smith scored he again planted, gifting time and space.

De Jongh is a better player at this stage than either of these two....but he has not honed his attacking attributes.. That can scarcely be a size problem at 13 though. Our most dangerous runners of the last 20 years....Habana, Aplon, Paulse and Russell are all small guys.

Habana is 96 kg, hardly small. Microlights dont fly and hence you will look hard to find any at international level as we have noted before.

Last I checked, 100kg's was alot heavier than 87kg.........and all these players tend to be on the field at the same time.......so in broken play, there is a good chance Daniel at 100kg will be able to stand up to a player of 110kg charging at him be that player a flanker or centre. Chances are a Read or so would run straight through de Jongh

What you conveniently fail to include is the fact that I said Daniel and the like would make ideal impact players. I would not start Daniel, while Brussouw and Kolisi are fit for instance.

But most importantly, I base my take on player size based on the size of the top current test sides out there, where you will find that test sides do have 100 to 105kg openside flankers like Hopper, Pocock, Warborton, Disseltua etc

What you dont find is 87kg outside centres

Here is a little scale for you to work with:

15 to 11 should be 90kg + but probably closer to 95kg+ especially the centres

10 & 9 no big issue with weight here - there is no issue with a 85kg flyhalf or 80kg scrummie

Props - 115kg+

Hooker - 100kg+ but closer to 105kg+

Locks - 115kg+

Openside flanker  - 100kg+

7&8 - 105kg+

As for JJ, when last did he miss a tackle in the CC - here is the answer for you Moz - big fat zero, chances are you have not seen a single CC game, for if you had you would not be making such stupid comments about JJ and his tackling

I'm gonna throw a cat amongst the pigeons here, because the problem with our centres is not their size, but the fact that we have a bunch of crap centres at the moment. Seriously, which centre currently playing for South Africa is even nearly in the same class as SBW or Nonu or O'Driscoll or Umaga etc etc? Weight aside, we lack special, and I emphasize SPECIAL, talent at centre. Jean De Villiers has at times in his career has been top class, but those years are long gone. F Steyn has huge talent but for every 3 moments of brilliance he has produced, he has also had 5 colossal brain farts. De Jongh, good but not great. J Fourie, possibly good enough, but he has lost interest in Springbok rugby. JJ Engelbrecht, J Taute, Serfontein, Jordaan etc etc....are all at best very good, but not great. That has been our story for a long time. We have not been able to truley match NZ at both inside and outside centre for quite a few years now.

 Moz, Fibonacci - like Pareto is useful in certain analysis and hypothesis however it rises way beyond the level of the intended poster.

Weight, like age is something that cannot be an absolute in rugby.  some players are done and dusted at 28, while others play well into their 30's like Roncero (35).  Some players have made a massive impact, although they did not weigh the magic weight.  Wales - winger Shane Williams and the French wing - Christophe Dominici @ 83 KG. 

Surely the act of placing a weight limit on a position is a bit subjective and more a personal thing than a proven fact?

I agree Lunatic, your point ties in perfectly with my previous post. Size helps, but talent is still the real decider.

Dave, as a guy who has ticked through all the weight levels up to 110 kgs despite your 5' 9", you ought to have a sense of the size difference beween 87kgs and 100 kgs.  But I have to disagree with your logic. The flyhalf often has to tackle an opposing loosie close to the try line and if possible prevent him from offloading.....whereas an outside centre is tackling a fast man in space, where good tackling technique and a secure tackle are crucial. If anything the need for stopping power is greatest at 10 and 12.

And I beg to differ on Habana at 5' 11", with an average frame,  he is not a big bloke.

Lunatic you are spot on here. Obviously size all other things being equal, is a benefit in rugby. But there are plenty of terrific smaller players, because all other things aren't always equal....for example:

 Weight 187 lb  = 84.82177 KG