ANALYSIS...Cour tesy of Huffington Post
When President Jacob Zuma fired Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan on Thursday, 30 March 2017 he did so after an audit of the balance of forces in the African National Congress (ANC) and broader society -- and it showed he has the upper hand.
Even though there seems to be large-scale mobilisation inside the party and among civil society formations, Zuma seems to be in control of every single relevant power bloc, while those that he doesn't control are either too small or don't have executive powers.
The only avenue open to insurrectionists seems to be the ANC's parliamentary caucus, whose leadership was on Saturday locked in discussions about Zuma's decision to eject Gordhan.
"We must not rest, we must not sit down or accept defeat," says Mavuso Msimang, an ANC veteran and a leader of the informal grouping of 100 party elders that earlier met with the party's leadership.
The veterans' initiative -- they asked for a special consultative conference to discuss the ructions in the party -- was dismissed by Zuma and the rest of the top six leaders. "They strung us along and discarded us. We went to talk to them, twice. There's no use anymore. The decision to oust Gordhan was outrageous. We now have to support civil society in resisting," added Msimang.
Gordhan addressed a packed Johannesburg City Hall on Saturday where the Ahmed Kathrada and Nelson Mandela Foundations, in conjunction with the Gauteng ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP), hosted a memorial event for Kathrada, who died last week. The former minister said individuals, groups and communities across the political spectrum must "unite" to return the country to its founding ideals and added it is "very clear what the problems are and who is causing them".
Kathrada's widow, Barbara Hogan, made an emotional plea to Zuma, asking whether he has "eyes and ears" to see what is going on around him: "You have sacrificed everything we stand for on the altar of corruption and greed and more greed."
The event was attended by representatives of various organisations in civil society, including Zwelinzima Vavi, who has just helped launch a new trade union federation, Save South Africa and Section 27.
Senior sources in the Democratic Alliance (DA) parliamentary caucus told Huffington Post SA they have been informally approached by a "substantial" number of MP's from the ANC urging them to forge ahead with the tabling of a motion of no-confidence. The official opposition have also said if ANC MP's support the motion, the DA will support any candidate the governing party puts forward.
Inside the ANC's parliamentary caucus there seems to be some division over Zuma, with Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu becoming increasingly vocal in his criticism of the party leader. But Zuma supporters say there is no way the caucus will succeed in a vote of no-confidence, with many loyalist MP's drawn from rural areas and from provinces that are part of the so-called "premier league".
A senior ANC MP, who was aligned to former president Thabo Mbeki and was a long-serving member of the ANC's national executive committee, says the crisis in the party needs to be pinned on Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe.
"They should have foreseen what would happen, especially Mantashe. He was warned, but he didn't want to listen, he dismissed us. In fact, he voted for Zuma twice. He created this situation. They [Ramaphosa and Mantashe] should have given guidance long ago, but calls for Zuma to resign were rejected because they said we should now be consistent, we must stick with him," he added.
Even though Ramaphosa, Mantashe and Treasurer-General Zweli Mkhize have all publicly rebuked their leader, they seem powerless to either rein him in or stop him.
Zuma has, since 9 December 2015, when he unilaterally and disastrously replaced Nhlanla Nene as finance minister, suffered no consequences for the Constitutional Court's Nkandla judgment (March 2016), the ANC's poor election results (August 2016) and the public protector's damaging report into state capture (October 2016).
If he could survive that -- and given the range of power blocs behind him -- he can surely survive this calamity.
THE BALANCE OF FORCES: SOLID ZUMA
Cabinet
Zuma is increasingly becoming an imperial president: surrounded by
hardline loyalists in the security cluster, open to paranoia and
conspiracies and surrounded by bodyguards. With the ousting of Gordhan
from Treasury he now has total control over the state and the levers of
power. The executive is totally beholden to him.
The ANC'S NEC
When Derek Hanekom and others, including Gordhan, moved a motion to
debate Zuma's fitness to hold office was tabled at a meeting of the NEC
in December it was soundly defeated. The 80-member body, the party's
highest decision-making body between national conferences, fell silently
into line. The NEC fired Mbeki in 2008, but only because Zuma had the
numbers. He still has.
The Leagues
Under Zuma, the ANC's youth league was neutered and cleansed of
challengers like Julius Malema. It has now re-emerged as a frantic
cheerleader for the president and his populism, only trumped in the
scale and commitment of its sycophancy by Bathabile Dlamini's women's
league. These organisations act as attack dogs for Zuma -- and they are
very effective
The Premier League
The premiers and the provincial executives of Mpumalanga, North West,
Free State and KwaZulu-Natal have created a network of patronage and
political influence that has established a grassroots operation to
muster support for Zuma and his chosen successor as party leader which
won't be easily matched, if at all. They might use Zuma, but Zuma also
uses them.
The Guptas And ANN7
The Gupta family are business partners of Edward Zuma and close friends
of the president. Former public protector Thuli Madonsela's
investigation into the family's role in state capture -- their influence
in the appointment of ministers, access to business opportunities with
the state and threats to senior civil servants -- is well documented.
They nevertheless remain lurking in the background, using their media
outlets produce a never-ending stream of propaganda.
THE BALANCE OF FORCES: HOUSES DIVIDED
The ANC's Top Six Leadership
There is no doubt the top six leadership is deeply divided. Ramaphosa,
Mantashe and treasurer-general Zweli Mkhoze have all publicly registered
their unhappiness with the way Zuma reshuffled his Cabinet. Only Jessie
Duarte (deputy secretary-general) and Baleka Mbete have not yet done so
-- which might suggest they are either on Zuma's side of the chasm
that's opened up, or are uncertain. Even so, the leadership have proven
impotent in influencing or disciplining Zuma.
The Alliance
The SACP initially came out very strongly when the rumours of a Cabinet
reshuffle were starting to emerge, threatening a walkout of its members
who are serving on the executive. It has since demanded that Zuma
resign, but leaders like Blade Nzimande and Jeremy Cronin remain
ministers and deputy ministers. Cosatu has literally said nothing.
The ANC's Parliamentary Caucus
Where the NEC has the power to "recall" the president as an ANC deployee
to government, the caucus has actual constitutional power to dismiss
the president. If 50 MP's vote with the opposition, they could
conceivably carry a vote of no-confidence, which means Zuma would have
to leave office. But even with the strident rhetoric of Mthembu, a lot
of spadework will have to be done before the ANC votes against their own
leader, in public, and at the behest of the opposition. There certainly
is major disgust with Zuma in caucus. But is it enough?
THE BALANCE OF FORCES: THE RESISTANCE
The Foundations And Their Partners
This is perhaps the most potent of the oppositional formations -- but
the one with no executive power. The symbolism of the foundations of
Nelson Mandela and Ahmed Kathrada coming together against Zuma is
extremely powerful. Kathrada's funeral, where former president Kgalema
Motlanthe read aloud Kathrada's letter to Zuma imploring him to resign,
was just as significant, as was the public support given to Gordhan that
day. But it helped little as Gordhan was fired 48 hours later. The rise
of organisations like Section27, and Save South Africa is working to
mobilise at grassroots level. It could be this mobilisation that could
influence voting patterns. And that could influence the ANC.
Civil Society II
Corruption Watch, Freedom Under Law, the Helen Suzman Foundation, the
Committee for the Advancement of the South African Constitution (Casac)
and the Black Sash have become active watchdogs over the executive,
scoring a number of important court victories over Zuma's executive and
the encroachments of executive power. The courts are wary to intervene
in governance, but it has recently been forced to do so a number of
times, to the betterment of society.
The Opposition
Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), for all their bluster
and populism, have a keen eye for a political gap and have developed a
degree of sophistication in their extra-parliamentary activities (it was
the EFF which took Zuma to court over the Nkandla invesitgation). More
pertinently, it is Malema -- with his extensive contacts and enjoying
widespread sympathy inside the party -- that is a threat. He knows where
the bodies are buried and which ones to dig up. The Democratic Alliance
is an important cog: it will drive the parliamentary opposition to
Zuma, leveraging process and the Constitution as the basis of its
attacks.
