Oil Prices: $62.54 to $108.78

1. “Have you even once contemplated what would really happen to your day-to-day costs if Trump literally ‘Fucked Off’ and left us with zero financial aid?”

DA, this is pure speculation. I am talking about petrol price hikes and cost of living issues right now. What ifs about Trump disappearing don’t address the real, current impact.

The “aid hypothetical” doesn’t translate into measurable local benefits, especially for the people actually paying more for fuel.

2. “You throw around these millions and billions like it means something to me… it really should mean something to you M”

Wrong!! Those numbers are a blanket figure for Africa over many years, not South Africa specifically.

Even if aid exists, it is mostly structured or organized for certain sectors, not directly helping people facing petrol hikes or cost of living increases.

Telling me it “should mean something” is irrelevant and patronizing. I don’t care about your moral spin, show real results instead.

3. “Yeah, and you would possibly pay a shit load more without the aid… but nah… Fuck them anyway… whilst we still take from them every day to keep millions alive.”

Two problems here:

Vague numbers, you can’t prove this directly affects current SA petrol or daily costs.

Aid isn’t helping white people like me with the fuel increase. So why should I be grateful, huh? That’s my point.

4. “Historical aid my ass… current aid more like it, even if it was reduced.”

Bingo. Current aid might exist, but it doesn’t offset the petrol hike or cost of living increase. Historical numbers are irrelevant to the argument.

And another thing : this “where would the government get the lost aid from, you and me?” argument is complete nonsense.

That’s the government’s problem, not mine. They’re running South Africa, collecting our taxes...so don’t try to make their fuck ups my responsibility.

If the government actually ran our money properly, we wouldn’t need aid from Trump the Oros Bozo or anyone else in the first place. Fix your own house before dragging me into it, DA.

Bottom line:

None of your “aid,” hypotheticals, or moralizing proves Trump is helping me or anyone like me.

I’m paying more for petrol, nothing has changed locally, and promises are empty.

Stop sidetracking with “be grateful” or historical numbers. Show real results in my pocket or my life!! Otherwise, fuck all of this Trump BS!!

I think every person on the planet would be better off.

I see

So if Trump turned his back completely on South Africa, or Africa as a whole, we would all be better off for it..

Got it

So i just saw a very interesting video on YouTube of Netanyahu speaking live.

If he "reaches his goals" and Iran falls, he wants to cut out the Strait of Hormuz

(Controlled by Iran/Oman) and Bab el-Mandab(Controlled by Yemen/Djibouti)

He wants to lay oil pipelines running straight into Israel. He has been discussing that with his "very real partner the USA"...what a fucking joke.

Isreal has made Oros Man and the whole of America there bitch. My guess is after Iran possibly falls, he will go for Egypt and the Suez Canal.

That way he controls all the shipping lanes. With the oil flowing through pipelines straight into Israel, he controls 40% of the world’s oil.

So he would have never been able to do that alone and that's why his Puppet the Oros Man and the USA military came on board.

That is the real reason for the war. And He is so brash, he admitted it on live TV...that's why the Boom Booms are falling on Iran.

DA, this is pure speculation. I am talking about petrol price hikes and cost of living issues right now.

Short term problems.... completely overshadowed by what we get long term

The “aid hypothetical” doesn’t translate into measurable local benefits, especially for the people actually paying more for fuel.

Agreed, but you would certainly feel it more in the long term if it wasn't there to begin with

Wrong!! Those numbers are a blanket figure for Africa over many years, not South Africa specifically.

I see.... so let's just scoff at the $5 billion in aid we have received specifically only for South Africa, over the last 5 years from the USA.....that's only about R95 billion to us ......I agree M, they can Fuck Off ... who needs that kind of money.

Even if aid exists, it is mostly structured or organized for certain sectors, not directly helping people facing petrol hikes or cost of living increases.

Really.... so if that aid was not forthcoming, you honestly don't believe that you and I would end up contributing at some point in place of that aid..... Ooooookk

Telling me it “should mean something” is irrelevant and patronizing. I don’t care about your moral spin, show real results instead

Got it M... the aid that we get from the USA means absolutely fuck all to you, because it does not affect you in any way whatsoever......... got it

Aid isn’t helping white people like me with the fuel increase. So why should I be grateful, huh? That’s my point.

I get it, maybe that aid is only helping the Black people and not the White people .... that's not good, nor fair.... so Fuck Trump.

That’s the government’s problem, not mine. They’re running South Africa, collecting our taxes...so don’t try to make their fuck ups my responsibility.

I can't believe you are even saying this ..... wow...... it will become yours, and mine, and every other SA citizens responsibility ..... are you seriously this naive?

If all financial aid that comes to South Africa stopped right now because you told everyone to Fuck Off..... where the hell do you think this governement is going to miraculously get that money from to address whatever it's citizens are facing....... you have blinkers on.

If the government actually ran our money properly, we wouldn’t need aid from Trump the Oros Bozo or anyone else in the first place. Fix your own house before dragging me into it, DA.

Duh !!

I have been saying this all along... where the hell have you been !!!

None of your “aid,” hypotheticals, or moralizing proves Trump is helping me or anyone like me.

Yep, we have now determined that Trump is only helping the Black population of South Africa.

Ok DA, once again:

- All your “long-term aid” and “hypotheticals” are irrelevant. I’m talking about right now...petrol hikes, cost of living, what’s hitting my pocket. Honestly DA, stop pretending imaginary future benefits.

- Your $5 billion “aid” to South Africa over five years? Blanket numbers. Doesn’t help me pay for fuel, doesn’t touch ordinary people.

You waving it around like it’s some miracle? Pathetic. Bingo. Exactly why I’m not grateful. Aid that doesn’t reach me isn’t aid, it’s meaningless.

- Your scare tactics about “we’d end up contributing instead” are pure projection. That’s a government problem, not mine.

They mismanage taxes and finances, we need to fix it by voting these fuckers out, before we run into some fantasy!!!

You also clearly ignore my point:

IF SA'S GOVERMENT MANAGES OUR MONEY BETTER, WE WOULDN’T NEED THE BOZO'S MONEY IN THE FIRST PLACE...USA'S AID SHOULD NOT BE A PERMANENT SOLUTION.

- You say I should be grateful for aid only helping others is absurd. That’s exactly my point...Trump’s so-called help doesn’t touch me, so why should I give a damn??

Moralizing and patronizing me? Forget it. I don’t care about your hypotheticals or your moral spin.

Bottom line:

You dodge, deflect, moralize, and speculate, all to avoid admitting the truth...Trump’s aid doesn’t solve my real-life problems today.

Stop pretending long-term fantasy numbers matter. Stop trying to make my pocket your responsibility.

The reality is staring you in the face, DA, and you still miss it. But here it is for you and your MAGA cheerleaders:

Trump’s ego, empty promises, the credibility gap, and now this unprovoked war are hitting ordinary people’s lives globally.

The reality is that none of his “aid” or bragged about actions actually touch us or anyone like us in a meaningful way.

And yes, when we look at the war, and i list all the disadvantages, but i can’t get a single one of you Trump supporters to name a positive, what does that tell me?

It tells me that you guys are full of it. You're spinning propaganda, warmongering, and talking nonsense while real people are paying for it.

Facts matter, and all you’re rhetoric collapses when you measure it against reality. It’s not about “long-term benefits” or “hypothetical aid,” it’s about what actually happens...and in this case, it’s a credibility gap and human cost that you guys refuse to acknowledge...BOOM!!

". . . but i can’t get a single one of you Trump supporters to name a positive, what does that tell me?"

I think these brainwashed Trumpanzees still think that their hero . . . the bloated, egotistical and demonstrably stupid clown . . . is going to "win" something.

...country on the blind...

Okay, let's see how our oil charting plays out this week.

Early market action suggests upward to the trend lines and resistances on my chart.

My amateur guesstimate...

scenario 1 = 60% probability

scenario 2 = 35% probability

scenario 3 = 5% probability

If scenario 1 plays out I see the trading range shrinking and the price likely not dropping too low, perhaps to $100-105

If scenario 2 plays out then I think we can expect price to go down to somewhere between $90-100

If scenario 3 plays out then all bets are off. But if price rejects at or around $120-130...there'll be massive sell pressure and I think we could see price drop to $80-85.

Of course this is all just some charting fun/practice for me as I'm not a commodity trader and have never charted commodities during a war that directly affects them.

- Your $5 billion “aid” to South Africa over five years? Blanket numbers. Doesn’t help me pay for fuel, doesn’t touch ordinary people.

It is incredibly scary just how ignorant you really are.....

So financial aid from the USA does not touch ordinary people in South Africa or Africa.....got it.....what an incredibly naive and ridiculous statement to make..

You waving it around like it’s some miracle? Pathetic. Bingo. Exactly why I’m not grateful. Aid that doesn’t reach me isn’t aid, it’s meaningless

- You say I should be grateful for aid only helping others is absurd. That’s exactly my point...Trump’s so-called help doesn’t touch me, so why should I give a damn??

Absolutely pathetic statement from you, to say that it is meaningless.....and that if the aid doesn't reach you, then why should you give a damn about all the financial aid coming in.......yet at the same time, you want to constantly preach to people on this forum about how they don't care or show empathy towards the many innocent civilian lives in Iran that were lost recently.....

Talk about high level hypocrisy.....

You don't see or realise just how many lives will be lost if that aid is suddenly stopped......but...... just because you "think" it doesn't affect you, the aid that we receive is meaningless.... what a crock of shit.

You dodge, deflect, moralize, and speculate, all to avoid admitting the truth...Trump’s aid doesn’t solve my real-life problems today

Stop being deliberately obtuse .....the penny still hasn't dropped with you has it....

Without the financial aid that we get from other countries around the world, including from the USA....your daily real life problems that you speak about so often, like personal costs or expenses could and would most probably very easily be affected... that is the whole bloody point that I am trying to make.

Deny that as much as you want to, and try and swing it anyway you can, but that is the hard reality of living in South Africa, with possible vat increases and other increased daily expenses for the average citizen if all aid was stopped..... that is a irrefutable fact.

Why don't you at least look into or research just a little bit on what effects this financial aid that we receive all that time, would have on the ordinary and average South African citizen, if it was just taken away..........and that might just make you sit up and start respecting where it comes from a little bit more......talk about fuck all gratitute.

Further than that, it's basically pointless debating this issue further with you, because you have already very clearly stated multiple times now that if this financial aid doesn't reach you personally..... which it already does in some way.......then this financial aid is meaningless, and why should you give a damn about it.......well.....try saying it's meaningless and that you don't give a damn about the millions of lives that that same financial aid saves every year.......BOOM !!

It tells me that you guys are full of it. You're spinning propaganda, warmongering, and talking nonsense while real people are paying for it.

Yeah well..... back at home in my world, real people are dying every single day, without that "meaningless" aid.....

You never actually addressed my core point...that Trump uses aid as ego-driven PR while ordinary South Africans feel none of it in their daily lives.

Instead you called me ignorant in your first sentence, threw in a hypocrisy charge, then ended with an emotional appeal about millions dying.

That's manipulation, not a counter argument.

On the "aid reaches you indirectly" point... the vast majority of US aid to SA is PEPFAR funding, specifically for HIV/AIDS programmes run by NGOs.

It was never designed to reach the general population. So the real question is why South Africa is so dependent on foreign funded healthcare that the government should be providing itself. That's an ANC failure, not a reason for me to be grateful to Trump.

And comparing my empathy for civilian deaths in a war zone to questioning HIV/AIDS aid benefits is a false comparison.

One is about human life and foreign policy. The other is about economic reality. They're completely different conversations ...and you merged them to make me look hypocritical.

My original point stands untouched:

Trump's aid is almost entirely HIV/AIDS programme funding that doesn't touch the average South African's pocket, and waving billion dollar figures around as propaganda doesn't change that reality.

Correct. According to my sources over 80% of US aid (which is a lot less than $1bn a year by the way) goes to HIV/AIDS programs which . . . as we all know . . . ends up going to some ANC fatcat so he can buy a new Maserati or something. The remaining 20% is intended for other health programs and probably ends up paying for someone's Range Rover.

Now sure why any normal South African should be applauding this aid. It has zero impact on any South African's life (black or white) with the possible exception of those taking anti-retrovirals.

Another thread where one makes an effort to add some value but we get lectured on innocents dying and Orange Man bad.

FFS, M... can you at least try to keep your virtue signalling Trump erection in your pants for ten seconds?

This was a discussion about economics and oil price, not your amazing morals.

What the hell are you on About?!

This isn’t virtue signalling...it’s economics. I’m talking about aid that doesn’t reach ordinary South Africans pockets. That affects petrol, cost of living, daily life.

Your insults and talk about morals don’t change the fact: waving billion dollar figures around as Trump PR doesn’t solve real problems here. Stick to the topic, or stop pretending.

Correct. According to my sources over 80% of US aid (which is a lot less than $1bn a year by the way) goes to HIV/AIDS programs which . . . as we all know . . . ends up going to some ANC fatcat so he can buy a new Maserati or something. The remaining 20% is intended for other health programs and probably ends up paying for someone's Range Rover.

I also mentioned what aid has been received under all the previous administrations, not just Trump....and I made that quite clear, and if you honestly do believe that the aid that we receive is not only significant to Africa and South Africa, but absolutely imperative.... like M, you clearly haven't researched it enough.

I am actually quite shocked that you would think that the aid that we receive should not be applauded.....

Just like USAID, all aid gets misappropriated to some degree, whilst a lot of it still does some good, so to make a blanket statement that this regular financial aid should not be applauded is ridiculous and ungrateful.

Now sure why any normal South African should be applauding this aid. It has zero impact on any South African's life (black or white) with the possible exception of those taking anti-retrovirals.

I suggest you actually take some time and read up on what could or would happen over the next 18 to 36 months..... if all aid stopped.

Well I think it's ridiculous that anyone who lives in this country and sees what happens here on a daily basis might believe that any funding might reach its intended recipients.

Well I think it's ridiculous that anyone who lives in this country and sees what happens here on a daily basis might believe that any funding might reach its intended recipients

Well, I guess if my world always revolved around every single negative aspect or portion of South African life, all the time, every day....... and expecting nothing to ever improve or be appreciated at all....and never ever looking at or looking for, just some of the positives that come out of so many negatives in this fantastic country... even the small ones and big ones alike...that we do get every single day in South Africa, then I would agree with you, that person would be ridiculous.... however, as you can see, even though I often acknowledge and accept the very worst things about South Africa all the time, I can at least also acknowledge, appreciate and in particular be very grateful for some of the good and great as well, which includes the financial aid received from around the world.

Looks like we got scenario 1 in the end...

"My amateur guesstimate...

scenario 1 = 60% probability

scenario 2 = 35% probability

scenario 3 = 5% probability

If scenario 1 plays out I see the trading range shrinking and the price likely not dropping too low, perhaps to $100-105"

Price is currently at $103 and some change.

Let's see where it bounces.

Price bounced perfectly to form an ascending channel...that is a bearish pattern with a 70% chance of breaking down.

I've drawn onto the chart what i think is a rough representation of what price will do.

The trading range has indeed shrunk as predicted, and unless there's some news that causes price to break the numerous resistances above it, we can expect price to break down out of the channel, come back up to touch it once or twice and then break down further as it gets rejected and previous support turns into resistance.

Have removed previous buy and sell levels because from here on would tend to simply buy bounces from the bottom of the channel and sell rejections from the top of the channel.

Every time prices touches the top of the channel and rejects, the possibility of a total breakdown out of the channel increases. The channel gap is about $10, so we can expect that when it does break down out of the channel, you can take that price and subtract $10.

Let's see if that plays out.

I'd be loading up and getting ready to short now because the chart is prepping for a major breakdown and there'll be a lot of liquidations on the way down.

Yet another oil update.

As per the previous update, the price broke down out of the ascending channel as predicted. Once an ascending channel like that is formed, the general wisdom is that you have a 70% chance of price breaking down. In this case it has done exactly that.

"Every time prices touches the top of the channel and rejects, the possibility of a total breakdown out of the channel increases. The channel gap is about $10, so we can expect that when it does break down out of the channel, you can take that price and subtract $10."

When it broke down through support it was priced at just over $100, and it has now bounced at $90. Again, as predicted.

Now we look for the price to move back up to what was previously the support, and see if it breaks back into the ascending channel or if it gets rejected and the previous support turns into resistance. If price does make its way up and gets rejected and previous support(A), that is a major bearish signal it'll likely then go down below $90, probably to $80 or lower.

Price did indeed end up rejecting off of previous support...no surprise there.

Bit tricky trying to call prices when the news cycle is as volatile as it is.

Interesting, though, regardless of the news cycle, the chart patterns still play out.

We did get a rejection from the previous support line, and currently, we are bouncing off of $90.

For me, both Iran and the US need the war to end, and I think the market knows that. The fact Trump has decided to block the Strait entirely puts more pressure on countries like China and such to weigh in on finding a resolution.

My feeling is that the price might go up a few more times, but it's gonna take some effort to break into the ascending channel again. We can expect price to get rejected off of previous support again.

The most likely result from here, for me, is a few bounces off of $90 and then a breakdown below $90 yo $80.

$120 is totally out of the question at this point.