So the ‘disaster’ that is Brexit

As the 10 year period ends the loud voices are saying Brexit is a disaster…that presumably continuing to be a Eurozone member would have given a much better result.

But here are the 10 year GNP annual growth numbers:

Germany 0.6%

France 1.3%

Great Britain 1.3%

Eurozone 1.4%

Great Britain’s economy has actually outperformed the average of the two other major economies and barely trails the overall European rate. Far from the disaster that was predicted

Much of the Brexit criticism is anecdotal, it’s failure to achieve all that was promised. But Britain never pursued new policies of substance. Never really changed the nanny state. Still if they want to be like Europe, perhaps they should be in Europe. They won’t do any better but at least one excuse will be eliminated.

The theme park meanders on.

Even if EU growth is low, the UK would have grown faster than the EU average as a member. More than if not a member.

The UK has achieved nothing with Brexit, with little to no benefits. 3rd world immigration worsened, as no longer being part of the Dublin accord means they can't be returned.

The UK, without its colonies, is no longer a world power with under 70 million people.

With the global free-trade order breaking down, the world is moving toward power blocs.

The UK will always be part of Europe, so it makes sense to rejoin but to improve the EU by moving into a protectionist model.

Even if EU growth is low, the UK would have grown faster than the EU average as a member. More than if not a member.

Perhaps, there were some inefficiencies with the separation. But none of the fundamentals would have been different. Europe is a socialist disaster and Germany is a suicide case trying to recover, there is nothing to be gained tying yourself to the little men in suits.

The UK needs a visionary economic leader, failing that they are just another part of the theme park.

Meanwhile in reality,

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Reality is in the numbers not the bullshit you believe.

LOL, on one hand we have the the primary architect and the man singularly most responsible for Brexit long acknowledging the failure of Brexit and and on the other we have of course Moz who will never admit to being wrong about anything.

Did Farage say what the actual failure was? What in particular he sees as the failure? I suspect some missing context.

I think he considers it to be a failure of those in charge who have failed to implement the idea of Brexit fully.

Brexit has failed,” he added. “We’ve not delivered on Brexit and the Tories have let us down very, very badly.”

Asked if the U.K. would have been better off remaining in the EU Farage insisted he didn’t “think that for a moment.”

You are right Draad, context was missing….and not by accident.

Yes the context was that he was blaming the people in power for the failures of Brexit which was precisely what the people who opposed Brexit said he would do when Brexit inevitably failed.

Farage before the referendum declared that the worst case scenario with Brexit would be that the UK would be better compared than what they had before in the EU. Of course the Brexiteers before the referendum never said anything along the lines that Brexit could fail if it wasn't implemented in a certain way and Farage had the luxury of never having to be the one to try to implement it.

The best thing the Brexiteers can say about Brexit is that it hasn't been as bad the worst case projections from the other side but it's beyond question it's been a significant economic drain on the UK without achieving any upsides.

It reduced the size of the UK economy, cost investment, cost jobs, increased bureaucracy and red tape, made it harder to trade with the large trading block on its border, caused a surge in non European migration into the UK, ironically more so into predominately Brexit voting area's, didn't produce all that extra money promised for the NHS, didn't help the fishing industry, wasted a huge amount of political time capital in both the UK and Europe and the trade agreements it's signed since Brexit don't remotely come close to offset the loss of trade. Hell even if the vote was meant just as a black eye to the London metropolitan elite, they largely shrugged off the affects of Brexit with little minimal impact on them..

The only thing you hear about the ever decreasingly few Brexiteers is them harping on about some nebulous concept of sovereignty, not they can actually name a law or regulation from the EU that personally affected them that they are now free of or any law the UK has since passed legislation from.

But to credit the UK public and political system to a certain extent, Farage has to acknowledge the reality of Brexit's failures and try to work around it. He can't just brazenly lie about it.

And yet the UK GNP grew at exactly the same rate as the Eurozone. Of course Brexit actually had to be implemented to be successful. What Farage is saying is exactly what I said in the first post. If you are not going to forge new trading partnerships, reduce bureaucracy, control immigration, build a new sense of national pride….you might as well stay tied to patient Europe.

You implied Farage thought Brexit was a failure, he clearly didn’t, he thought the implementation was a failure…..because the benefits weren’t achieved. But Britain was no worse than the average Eurozone country despite the dire warnings and the pound has pretty much tracked the Euro.

Now suddenly the standard is Britain should have done better than the Eurozone, whereas previously its GNP was predicted to slump. Moving the goalposts….typical Woke dishonesty.

Here is some of the hysterical nonsense predicted before Brexit was implemented:

The HM Treasury warned that a vote to leave would trigger an immediate recession. It projected:

1. GDP would fall by 3.6–6.0% within two years.
2. Around 500,000–800,000 jobs could be lost.
3. House prices could fall 10–18%.
4. Sterling would depreciate sharply.

Sterling did indeed fall by about 10–15% after the referendum, but the predicted immediate recession did not occur. And Sterling rapidly recovered to trade today at 1.16 Euros to 1.18 Euros a month before Brexit.

Emergency budget

Then-Chancellor George Osborne warned that Brexit would require an "emergency Budget" involving spending cuts and tax increases.

That emergency budget was never introduced.

Unemployment surge

Many forecasts suggested unemployment would rise substantially after a Leave vote.

Instead, UK unemployment continued to fall over the following years, reaching around 4% before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Financial services exodus

Warnings suggested that London's financial sector would lose tens of thousands of jobs and much of its global status.

Some business and assets did move to cities such as Dublin, Paris, and Frankfurt. However, London has remained Europe's largest financial centre by many measures, although some EU-related business has relocated.

Trade collapse

Some campaigners warned that Britain would lose preferential access to European markets and exports would suffer dramatically.

Trade patterns did change:

1. Goods trade with the EU became more costly because of customs formalities and regulatory checks.
2. Services exports remained comparatively resilient.
3. UK trade increasingly diversified toward non-EU markets.

Public finances

Some predicted a severe deterioration in government finances.

The UK's fiscal position was affected by Brexit, but it was also heavily influenced by COVID, energy prices, and global inflation, making it difficult to isolate Brexit's effect

These radical predictions weren’t produced by politicians, they were the output of econometric models constructed by trained economists. But as with all these multivariate models the modeler has to exclude his biases.

It clearly didn’t happen here, just as it hasn’t happened in global warming modeling. These are the best tools we have for forecasting complex relationships, but they are easily abused. The Treasury economists clearly wanted to taint Brexit….just as the Federal Reserve modelers in Biden’s term wanted to assure the world that inflation was temporary.

"...Brexit could fail if it wasn't implemented in a certain way..."

As opposed to the many other things in life that one can simply implement in any way and it still works?

Lol making an argument out of not stating the obvious.

"just as the Federal Reserve modelers in Biden’s term wanted to assure the world that inflation was temporary."

Don't start, Stavvie still believes that Putin caused the inflation.

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Don't start, Stavvie still believes that Putin caused the inflation.

I love the way how when you think you're being smart your post indicates the exact opposite.

"You are right Draad, context was missing….and not by accident."

Sometimes I just know things...

"I love the way how when you think you're being smart your post indicates the exact opposite."

Lol...you have the cajones to call him stupid right after being caught out misrepresenting the facts...I suppose that makes you smart?

"I love the way how when you think you're being smart your post indicates the exact opposite."

How Stavvie sounds when he knows he got murdered on a thread.

That was a classic, telling us the Russians caused the inflation...while it was already over 8%.

lolz

Lol...you have the cajones to call him stupid right after being caught out misrepresenting the facts...I suppose that makes you smart?

Where am I misrepresenting facts. The fact is Nigel Farage has acknowledge that Brexit has failed. The fact that he doesn't regret it or that he's still happier the UK is out of the EU changes nothing about the fact that he consider Brexit a failure.

I don't actually consider myself to be that smart a person actually. I'm just not in a cult. I don't have to defend undefendable positions like a lot of people on here do.

How Stavvie sounds when he knows he got murdered on a thread.

Like that time I aske you if you could point out the good people in photo's or videos from Charlottesville among the crowds of people marching under Swastika's, white nationalist and confederate flags.

Or even more recently when you bailed out of the debate on woke video games.

That was a classic, telling us the Russians caused the inflation...while it was already over 8%.

You mean in the thread where Shark mentioned Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused inflation, which it did globally and pretty much every economist agrees on. Yes it had less of an effect on the US but it was still significant (and I know how much you love that word).

Here's the thing Plum, you start with the answer you want, so for example like Covid conspiracies and then just work the evidence around that answer... you never let the evidence lead you to the answers.

Now tell me again how nothing can convince you otherwise that the 2020 election wasn't stolen?