The Democratic Party in chaos

Immediately after the Vance speech CNN indicated that there is no way that Trump will not win in the 2024 election and started a discussion on the Biden candidacy and the fact that the Party with Biden as candidate are in deep trouble and will lose both Senate control and House seats,   The Democrats are in a serious situation of decay.

The fact is the discussion stayed away fron one important issue and that is the fact that coalition of  voter blocks who supported the Democrats are falling apart.  The Party is now divided between the moderate center-leftists ideological group embodied in Robert Kennedy Junior and the Jewish and Hispanic groups of voters - while the ruling group in the Party are far-leftists ideologues.   The Party's future depends not on the far-leftists ideology but in moderation of the Party into the center-leftists the Party used to be.

But back to the discussion on CNN.   It came out that both Schumer and Pelosi told Biden that he will lose by the 2024 election by a landslide  and that his candidature will be disastrous for Senate and House candidates as well.  The major donors to the Party apparently indcated that they will not donate further money to the DNC for election purposes if Biden remains to be the candidate  and money would not be available for a viable campaign - not only for the Biden campaign - but also for the lower level candidates campaigns.

In conclusion a member of the discussion group stated they expected Biden to announce his wthdrawal from the campaign is expected in 24 hours and what will happen then.   The question then is how will the DP  will find a new candidate that will replace Biden as candidate.

I wrote the above immediately after the  discusion of the issue on CNN - following Vance's speech. 

I subsequently made a furher study of the real situation and want to outline some results are as follows:-

Opinion Polls 

The man poll on Biden's approval poll done by CNN indicated that -

*    Biden's job approval rating has gone down massively and that it reached the all-time low for any Prsident of  32%; and 

*    Two-thirds of the Democratic Party members beleve that Biden should not be the DP candidate in the election.

CNN and the New York Times openly stated that there is no way Biden can win the ucoming election.    The situation is that Senatorial and House candidates of the DP in marginal seats are in deep trouble themselves  as a result and it is quite possible that the votes wil either not vote for Biden and that a substantial poportion of the voters will not vote at all or hive off to vote for Robert Kennedy Junior in the election.

The so-called Battleground States tat decid election Oucomes 

Since 1985 the battle-ground states  have moved in different directions:-

*    Texas, Florida and Ohio  have moved to the Republican Party

*     Initially states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania moved to the Democratic Party

However, the 2016 election produced shocking results that the Rust Belt States voted  for Trump.    That meant that the following states became solid Republican States:-

Florida, Texas, Ohio.

During the 2020 election the following sttaes who all voted for the DP were the following:   

 Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and  New Hampshire

According to the latet situation based on opinion polls where the leadingcadidate is bound to win by more than 5 or more points moved out of the battleground state category:-\          

*    Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia and Nevada  will vote for Trump 

So what are the situation now are to which States are now battleground states:-

*     Trump leading in polls by less than 5 points -   Michigan and Wisconsin  

*     New battleground states where there is a dead heat:   Virginia, and Minnesota

*     Others  where Biden lead by less than 5 points:-

            Maine (House District 1), New Hampshire, New York, Connecticutt, New Jersey, Colorado, New Mexico.

The loss of only 2 of the above States would nsure that Trump will be the next USA President.

The attitude of the media and donors seem to be that  Trump and Vance will win the Presdential race and that something be done to protect the marginally thin  Senate majority as a counter to the epublican Presidency.

The Senate Races

At present the Democrats in the Senate are as follows:-

Democratic Party members    -    47

Independents Caucusing with the Democrats   -   4

Of the 34  Senate seats up for election this year  22 seats are held by the Democrats and 3 by the independents.    So what is the present situation:-

Of the Democratic Party seats Montana   will go to the  Republicans and of the Independents West Virginia will go to the Republicans.    There is one other seat - in Ohio to be cvacated by Vance - but that will for the next two years be filled by an appointee of the Republiczn Governor of Ohio.

With the potential loss of the West Virginia  and  Montana  where the Trump  lead is 15+% the Senate control will pass to the Republlicans wihout the need to win other seats - specially also since the VP is also the Chair of the Senate and having a casting vote by Vance as VP the chances of the DP to retain their majority in the Senate is more or less zero.    The damage control of the DP funders and te media will be to prevent the RP to get more than 51  seats in the Senate,

The House Races      

At present the Republican Party has 219 seats and the Democratic Party 213 seats,  There are another 35 seats which would be regarded as battleground seats.   Of those 31 are held by Democrats and 4 by Republicans.   

The DP Funders 

There are 2 major Funders of the DP - namely George Soros ad the Pritzker Family Trust to the DP which will remain  as funders - but most of the others said if Biden remains as candidate they are not going fund the election and the question is how do you fund an election without money?     

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