The Indian Variant

The UK variant is estimated to be around 70% more transmissible than the original variant from China. The  Indian Variant could be more than 50% transmissible than the UK variant.

Each level of lockdown becomes less effective as the transmissibility increases. Countries that did well at the start of Covid, done worse as new variant transmissibility increased.  

So far it is believed that current vaccines are effective against the Indian variant. The UK is in a rush to vaccinate faster to prevent another wave. It does however seem mRNA vaccines are more resistant to variants than viral vector technology like AstraZeneca and Johnston & Johnston- and Sputnek 5. 

The Indian variant is expected to become the dominant strain in the UK within weeks. A good chance it will become the dominant variant in the world as more cases are discovered. 

I see the Blue Bulls have a player who had long Covid, he was out of rugby for 5 months- but is now playing again. (Probably the South African variant). 

On the positive side, more vaccine is available around the world, so this might help stop the next variant - while combating the current variants. 

I see Northern Ireland is ahead of the rest of the UK. They are now inviting people 25 and older to get jabs.  

The UK government is going to make a decision on vaccinating children in around 1-2 months once all adults are vaccina ted. 

"Looking forward to getting back to normal."

Nothing will be the same again. This is the new normal. We'll manage it as good as we can and get used to living like we have to...the vax won't be a fix like with polio and smallpox. ..it might help for a while, and mabe we will adapt and live with like we do live with flu...but vaccine even 100% of the population won't stop it...I hope I'm wrong...we'll see soon.

My problem is the vaccine does not effect spreading of the virus, but help  with serious illnesses of infected people.    So whatever happens vaccination will not effect transmission at all.   

I have registered to get  the jabs but was not informed  yet when to get the jabs.    In  a way I would be happier if the vaccines prevents transmission  even by people that has been vaccinated - but experts all  over the world claim it does not and I have seen no reports to the contrary anywhere.          

Tests in the UK and US have reported around 70% reduction in transmission after vaccination. Though that might vary by the variant. 

50% in South Africa, according to the government. 

Cases in the UK have gone from under 2000 per day to 4000 per day in about 10 days. That is even with 3/4 of the population vaccinated with 1 dose, and about half with a second dose. 
It is mostly younger people that are reporting infections, so it shows the vaccines work. 

Looks like the start of the third wave...

The Indian variant is going to create problems all around the world for the foreseeable future. 

..so says the BBC.

@ButtPlug,

South Africa is about to go into a third wave as well. It is only a matter of time before the Indian variant takes over from the UK variant as the dominant globalist variant. 

The South African variant does not appear to be as transmissible as even the UK variant. If SA gets the Indian variant Covid will be much worse. 

Yes we have now heard the same claim for the UK variant, the SouthAfrican variant and this Indian variant. But Indian cases have dropped from 400000 a day at the peak back to 133000 cases per day. In a population of 1.4 billion!!

So far India has had 28 million cases, one case in 50 people living cheek to jowl in huge cities. If this variant is 2.5 times as transmissible as the Wuhan virus one would have expected more cases.

India's recent wave peaked and dropped because of lockdowns.
It is the only way to tackle the problem quickly, at least until herd immunity from the vaccine. 

India has also claimed all the AstraZeneca vaccine that was being produced in India - so they must be doing mass vaccinations. 

South Africa will struggle to go into a third lockdown, more so than richer countries.
70+50 = 120% increase is transmissibility, not 2.5 times. 

Your words:

The UK variant is estimated to be around 70% more transmissible than the original variant from China. The  Indian Variant could be more than 50% transmissible than the UK variant.

Basic arithmetic:

UKR=WRx1.7

IR=UKRx1.5=WRx1.7X1.5= 2.55WR

So the Indian rate according to you is 2.55 times as transmissible as the UK rate. Lefties shouldn’t  use numbers.

Those numbers are wrong. You are using 1.5, instead of 0.5, and 1.7 instead of 0.7. 

1 + 100% = 2.

1 + 50% = 1.5    (This is a 50% increase of the base transmissibility). 

Are you sh!tting us?

Unfortunately he isn’t....Lefties have trouble with numbers.

Precisely.....let’s assume 100 people are infected in Wuhan. If the UK variant is 70% more infectious than the Wuhan version, instead of 100 people being infected 170 people are infected.

But if they had gotten the Indian variant 50% more people would have been infected than the UK variant (your words not mine). So rather than 170 people being infected 255 would have been infected

So 2.55 times the original 100 were infected. This has nothing to do with physics, it’s primary school arithmetic. I’m not really sure what your major malfunction is, but it appears to be serious. See a doctor.

 "That is the law of physics chappie, an objective universal truth - not faith-based truth. "

LMAO!!!

My morning coffee almost came out my nose. 

VisKop, tell us again abo ut "zi science".

Plank.

Thought you would like that...I wonder how he calculates mark-up?

Mark-up or po p-up?

I see your math PHD and I raise you my drivel.

hahaha

Before this disappears!

"

mozart on Ruckers Forum

mozart

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Jun 02, 2021, 20:17

Yes we have now heard the same claim for the UK variant, the SouthAfrican variant and this Indian variant. But Indian cases have dropped from 400000 a day at the peak back to 133000 cases per day. In a population of 1.4 billion!!

So far India has had 28 million cases, one case in 50 people living cheek to jowl in huge cities. If this variant is 2.5 times as transmissible as the Wuhan virus one would have expected more cases.

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sharkbok on Ruckers Forum

sharkbok

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Jun 02, 2021, 20:22

India's recent wave peaked and dropped because of lockdowns.

It is the only way to tackle the problem quickly, at least until herd immunity from the vaccine. 

India has also claimed all the AstraZeneca vaccine that was being produced in India - so they must be doing mass vaccinations. 

South Africa will struggle to go into a third lockdown, more so than richer countries.

70+50 = 120% increase is transmissibility, not 2.5 times. 

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mozart on Ruckers Forum

mozart

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Jun 02, 2021, 20:35

Your words:

The UK variant is estimated to be around 70% more transmissible than the original variant from China. The  Indian Variant could be more than 50% transmissible than the UK variant.

Basic arithmetic:

UKR=WRx1.7

IR=UKRx1.5=WRx1.7X1.5= 2.55WR

So the Indian rate according to you is 2.55 times as transmissible as the UK rate. Lefties shouldn’t  use numbers.

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sharkbok on Ruckers Forum

sharkbok

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Jun 02, 2021, 20:39

Those numbers are wrong. You are using 1.5, instead of 0.5, and 1.7 instead of 0.7. 

1 + 100% = 2.

1 + 50% = 1.5    (This is a 50% increase of the base transmissibility). 

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DbDraad on Ruckers Forum

DbDraad

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Jun 02, 2021, 21:01

Are you sh!tting us?

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mozart on Ruckers Forum

mozart

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Jun 03, 2021, 00:27

Unfortunately he isn’t....Lefties have trouble with numbers.

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sharkbok on Ruckers Forum

sharkbok

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Jun 03, 2021, 00:30

If you take any number and add 100% - it doubles the original number.

So if a variant is 70% more transmissive, it is less than double the original number. 

1 +70% = 1.7 

That is the law of physics chappie, an objective universal truth - not faith-based truth.

If someone grows by 20%, they are 20% taller than their original height.

Original Height + 20% = new height. 

If someone is 5 foot, and they grow to 6 foot- they have become 20% taller. 

This though...

"That is the law of physics "chappie", an objective universal truth - not faith-based truth."

The levels of screwery in that sentence are unprecedented and will remain hilarious until the end of time.

"If someone grows by 20%, they are 20% taller than their original height.

Original Height + 20% = new height. 

If someone is 5 foot, and they grow to 6 foot- they have become 20% taller. "

I would ask for a refund for your maths degree, it seems like a waste of money. 

This is becoming funnier by the moment.

Now we have inserted a strawman in order to cover poor maths.

We are perhaps only a hair's breadth away from bringing in UFO's to bolster the argument.

...and it's not even Friday yet.

Please keep going $ussieVissie.

Draad, when last did you laugh out loud at a thread like you have this one?

We are dealing with the same person that doesn't understand the difference between possibility and probability.

The guy actually thinks the two words mean the same thing. Cos of all zi sciencing.

Is it possible for a pop-up merchant to make sense? Yes.

Is it probable? No .

hahaha

You plank!!!!

Haha and God enters the debate.

Planky, you really are a special one.

"My guess is that anyone who is not part of the far right would agree with the facts. 

Plum, he's gotta be trolling...

You don't need a calculator for basic arithmetic...and that seems to be the problem...