The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is essentially tied, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll that shows heightened support for her among nonwhite voters and dramatically increased enthusiasm about the campaign among Democrats.
The former president leads the current vice president 49% to 47% in a two-person matchup, but that is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Trump held a six-point lead earlier this month over President Biden before he exited the race and backed Harris.
On a ballot test that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent and third-party candidates, Harris receives 45% and Trump gets 44%. Kennedy is backed by just 4% and 5% remain undecided. Biden trailed in the multicandidate contest by six points in the last poll.
Harris has made strides in reassembling the coalition that put Biden in the White House in 2020, one that had been fraying under the stress of unease about his physical and mental sharpness. Black, Latino and young voters all showed greater support for her than they did for Biden in a Journal survey taken in the days after his disastrous debate performance on June 27.
If the general election were held today, for whom would you vote?Source: WSJ polls most recently of 1,000 registered voters, conducted July 23-25, 2024; margin of error: +/- 3.1 pct. pts.Harris: 47%2022'23'24TrumpBiden/Harris40455055%
A reshuffling of the demographic mix of Democratic support could alter the states where Harris might be competitive against Trump, a Republican running for a third time. Greater backing among nonwhite voters could help her in the more racially and ethnically diverse battleground states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina—where Biden was struggling.
Harris is supported by 63% of nonwhite voters in the two-way race, up from the 51% Biden had in the last WSJ poll. While an improvement for Harris, her support is still below the 73% of nonwhite voters who, according to exit polls, backed Biden in 2020 when he narrowly won the White House.
MORE ON THE WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL
The vice president is drawing a larger share of young voters, those under age 30, than Biden was earlier this month. But she still has less support among them than he did in his narrow 2020 victory.
Harris has also created a burst of enthusiasm within her party. Roughly four out of five voters in each party now say they are enthusiastic about their chosen candidate, reversing a lopsided deficit earlier this month among Democrats.
“Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July and now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her,” said Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster David Lee. “This is an astounding change.”