One has to see where there are advantages and disadvantages in the two teams and thus look at the potential outcome:-
Backlines
Israel Folau vs Willie le Roux
Both are top full backs - albeit with different playing styles. Folau is a strong ball carrier and very dangerous on counter-attack when he gets the ball in open play - aimless kicking would be seriously counter-productive as it would be possible to free up Folau to attack from the back. His defense is sound - but not impregnable. His kicking game is less solid. Le Roux plays attacking rugby and is a very clever player putting other players into space. A very good kicker with a few question marks on defense. Probably 50:50 evaluation.
Wings
Habana remains on of the most difficult wings in word rugby to contain - but Pietersen is slow and has been very poor in defense and non-existent in attacking play - both in defense and attack - and remains a very questionable selection. Both Horne and Ashley-Cooper are very good wings - dangerous in attacking play and good defenders. Australia major advantage.
Centers
Kriel is a rookie - his first test cap. Did very well at full back for the Bulls and was very good last week against the World 15 at outside center. Largely an unknown quantity in test rugby. De Allende is the best attacking center in world rugby at present - but not necessarily so in defense. He is a very strong ball carrier and speedy to boot - also a very clever player. Kuridrani is a very strong ball carrier - but not pacy. His defense is not always the best around. Matt Giteau is a better defender than Toomua - probably the reason for his selection to contain De Allende. Is an experienced test player - but has not played test rugby for the past three years. However at 32 he is getting on in years. Here we have a case of experience against inexperience and the situation is uncertain. Based on experience and the potential lack of quality ball provision, Australia should have a slight advantage.
Half-backs
Pollard is a youngster with huge potential and can be dangerous in attack. A very good kicker out of hand - but his goal kicking can be ineffective at times. Pienaar is slow and tended to have problems in pace and speed of delivery - thus putting recipients under pressure. His game last week was seriously defective in defense and he is a serious liability in the Springbok backline. It largely depends which Cooper turns up for Australia - he is unpredictable, but can be very dangerous and is sometimes too unpredictable for his own team mates. Genia remains one of the most experienced and best scrummies in world rugby and is likely to play the fool with Pienaar. Because of Pienaar a major advantage for Australia.
Loosies
Burger is really an unknown quantity at 8 and Louw was very poor at 6 last week, Both are not good ball recoverers at breakdowns. Coetzee is an outstanding loosie and proved that last week again - the only really good loosie at breakdowns - the rest are problem cases in that respect. I am happy that Hooper was selected to start ahead of Poc ock, because the latter would have been all over Pienaar and is probably the best breakdown ball recoverer at present in the SH. Fardy is a hard worker and very good in line-outs as well. Higginbotham always was a very good 8 both in traffic and in open field play - a very strong ball-carrier, a good player in breakdown ball recovery, good in line-outs and a very sound defender. A major advantage for Australia.
Locks
Here we have Etzebeth - if not the best lock in world rugby then one of the best locks. The other lock is Matfield who has no grunt in Tight 5 play and is seriously deficient in physical ability as a lock. He is good in line-out play, but tends to call line-outs to go to other players when facing a strong opponent. The problem is that he is also not supplying the necessary support in scrumming and his breakdown ball protection suffers because of lack of physicality. Skelton is a very strong player with no abilities in line-out play. Very slow - but a good ball carrier in traffic and a good off-loader of balls. He tends to be ill-disciplined in defense. Simmons is really a good lock - but not in the same class as Etzebeth. Despite the presence of Etzebeth in this case advantage for Australia.
Props
Jannie du Plessis has been inadequate in scrumming for a year now - both in tests and in Super 15 - and his play outside of the scrumming is noted for indiscipline. He is a poor defender and not adequate in ball carries. Fact is he is way past his sell-by date. Beast is very good in scrumming - but will have to do with inadequate support in scrumming from Matfield. Please note that last week Etzebeth scrums behind Jannie and Matfield behind Beast and that will be repeated this game). Sekope is going to be to be too good in scrumming against Du Plessis and Slipper - not a very strong scrummager, but excellent in plays outside of scrumming will be more than adequate. Major advantage to Australia.
Hookers
Bismarck du Plessis is still one of the best in world rugby - but Moore is a very talented player. Slight advantage to South Africa.
CONCLUSION
The above indicates that Australia would have an advantage in too many positions for South Africa to beat them. Meyer's selection is a major problem - especially iro the one wing, the scrummie, the loosie combination, one lock and one prop. That is going to be problematic in the test and I believe the Australians will have a real chance to beat the Springboks in the test on Saturday. From a SA perspective one can only hope the winning margin is not too big - since a win by Australia with a margin of more than 12 points is going to send Meyer into panic mode and he will make even worse selections than he made for the Saturday test.
