OPINION: A risk assessment and a little bit of faith should allow Tawera Kerr-Barlow and Lima Sopoaga to sneak into the All Blacks World Cup squad.
Picking two players in each position isn't a bad place to start when trying to unravel the fraught job of whittling the riches of talent available to coach Steve Hansen down to 31.
The selectors will go into the tournament with a fair idea of their top XV and, once they've thrashed Namibia in their second match, will presumably stick largely to the combinations they hope will take them to the title.
In the event of injuries, Hansen will want minimum disruption and hence specialists rather than stop-gap, or experimental selections should be the mantra.
There has been much debate about how many first five eighths, halfbacks and outside backs are needed at a World Cup.
The answer is three on the first two counts. Those wearing numbers 9 and No 10 are crucial, and so are their back ups.
On his form and goal kicking this season, Sopoaga provides the best straight swap for Dan Carter. Barrett is the next best and the same rationale applies to Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara and Tawera Kerr-Barlow.
To have a stop-gap halfback or first five-eighth replacement on the bench for a knockout match should be considered an unacceptable and unnecessary risk.
If Carter suffered a minor injury before the quarterfinal or semifinal, but was not ruled out of the tournament, a top drawer starter and goal kicker, as well as a back-up should be a must within the travelling squad. Ditto for Aaron Smith. The notion of Colin Slade or Dan Carter playing halfback in a knockout match would seem an unnecessary risk.
Under that rationale a decent argument could be mounted for Israel Dagg, inconsistent all year, to gain a reprieve as the next best fullback behind Ben Smith. However, Dagg is no longer head and shoulders better than the alternatives.
Despite a hattrick for Hawke's Bay last weekend, he has scored just two tries in his last 26 tests and, like his old mate Cory Jane, injuries have thwarted his ability to build form and confidence.
Jane is the most difficult player to leave out. His skill under the high ball appeals, but his case is hindered by the emergence of Nehe Milner-Skudder as a more potent scoring threat on the right wing, while Charles Piutau's form and ability to play on the left wing make him the logical and most balanced back up to Julian Savea.
Waisake Naholo seems too great a gamble as he returns from a broken leg, while Slade is simply too similar in skill set to Barrett.
In the forwards, the debate over whether to carry three or four locks, or an extra loose forward, could be spun both ways.
Neither Jeremy Thrush nor Liam Messam would let any team down. But the greater attrition in the loose forwards and weakness of the All Blacks pool means there is minimal risk in using Jerome Kaino as cover in the second row.
Up front, Charlie Faumuina's late return makes him a controversial figure, but in truth his explosiveness with ball in hand has been sorely missed in the All Blacks pack this season.
If fit he's a must, which is bad luck for fast rising Nepo Laulala.
TOBY ROBSON'S WORLD CUP SQUAD:
Backs: Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Charles Piutau, Malakai Fekitoa, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett, Lima Sopoaga, Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Tawera Kerr-Barlow.
Forwards: Dane Coles, Keven Mealamu, Codie Taylor, Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Tony Woodcock, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano, Victor Vito, Liam Messam, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Richie McCaw (c), Kieran Read
QUESTIONS:
1. Who was the unluckiest player to miss your squad?
Colin Slade. Did nothing wrong, but his similar skill set to Beauden Barrett made it difficult to justify selecting both.
2. Why have you picked Charles Piutau ahead of Cory Jane?
Simple. Piutau covers the left wing, Jane doesn't. Jane remains a class player and if Nehe Milner-Skudder hadn't emerged as a star, he would have still been there. Injury hasn't helped his cause.
3. Why have you gone with three halfbacks?
What would happen if Aaron Smith had a minor injury before the quarter, or semi final, but would be right the following week? TJ Perenara could start, but would anyone really be comfortable with Dan Carter or Colin Slade covering halfback in a knock-out match?
4. Which member of your squad would have the most to prove at the RWC?
Sonny Bill Williams. His form this year hasn't reached the heights of the previous two seasons and going into the tournament he is not a clear starter in the midfield. By the knock out stage he needs to be commanding big game time. At his best he's a big match winner.
- Stuff
