AUSTRALIA
The Wallabies won the Rugby Championship, remember. And they are ranked third in the world, behind only New Zealand and Ireland. England are fourth and Wales are sixth. Australia really should be favourites to take Pool A in this forthcoming Rugby World Cup. It is a very different view from the common one in recent times that they have appeared to have had nothing but troubles. That is not the case.
That said, at this moment in time, I still thi nk that England are the favourites because they are home and they beat both Australia and Wales last season. They have beaten Australia in three of the past four matches at Twickenham and have generally done so by dominating them up front. It is a psychological problem that Australia have to overcome and I have no doubt that England will look to exert that physical hold up front again.
However, Australia have clearly got more right than they have got wrong in recent weeks. There seems to me to have been a lot more logic to their decision-making, especially allowing players such as Matt Giteau, who is now in France, to be available.
Tactically, they have recognised what needed to be addressed, and have done just that. The Rugby Championship has hardened them and looks to have given them a very solid base, which is why you have to keep last weekend's heavy defeat by New Zealand in context. They will be hurting, as no one wants to concede more than 40 points, but they will know that there were some crucial turning points in that match that went badly against them. It will just ensure that their focus is sharper.
When I look at their possible line-up now, what strikes me most is how strong some of their combinations are. You simply have to respect them.
The front row is now so solid, especially with hooker Stephen Moore back as captain in between Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu. And the whole front five looks competitive.
The back row, where I think they will play both openside flankers Michael Hooper and David Pocock and, where Scott Fardy has been outstanding at blindside flanker, is obviously another potent combination.
Half-back is one area of uncertainty, though. I was amazed that scrum-half Nic White was omitted from the 31-man squad announced on Friday. I would have paired him with Matt Toomua. But you look further outside at Giteau, a gold-dust player, for me, and Tevita Kuridrani in the centre and then a back three of Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Henry Speight or Drew Mitchell on the wing. They are players who can hurt you.
Folau has been steadily improving, simply because he has been gaining more international experience. We can expect a very different player from the one we saw making his Test debut on the 2013 British and Irish Lions tour. He is quick and incredible under the high ball, and there are very few occasions when he does not beat the first man when counter-attacking.
WALES
Warren Gatland, the head coach, never produces a poor side.. He makes sure that they are well prepared for the key games. Historically, they have been poor starters so they need to get their game up and running, which is why Gatland will pick a strong side to play against Ireland in Dublin next weekend. They need a good performance there.
I know that it was only a weakened side who lost to Ireland in the first warm-up Test and it was obvious that they had done little rugby, as opposed to fitness, training, but it was still a disappointing afternoon. You only had to see how England's second-string did against France at Twickenham last weekend. I am not sure that they had done too much rugby training either, but they looked lively and organised in the circumstances.
Wales will be fit, of that there is no doubt, especially with the arrival of Paul 'Bobby' Stridgeon among their fitness staff. I know him from my Wasps and Lions days and he is brilliant at his job, as well as always keeping spirits up. He is a tremendous character and I was surprised England let him go.
Wales's greatest worry is injuries. With their top side out on the field, they can take on anyone in the world, and could reach the final. With three or four players out they could be very vulnerable. They have got some quite big question marks about depth in certain areas. Take the front row and especially tighthead prop, as an example. They do not look as stable there as they once did, and now with doubts about Samson Lee's fitness, it really does give Australia cause for great hope there. It may be that Australia have a real go for them at the scrummage.
The loss of centre Jonathan Davies for the tournament is a huge blow. And I hope they can keep the captain, Sam Warburton, fit because I do think Wales play well when he plays well. He is that influential.
Mind you, so too is Alun-Wyn Jones in the second-row. He has become some player and will be such an important figure, especially if the front row struggle.
I hope the winger/full-back Liam Williams can regain fitness in time after foot surgery because I really liked what I saw of him in the Six Nations. And I also hope George North can come back strongly. He needs to put all those concussion problems behind him, because he can be world class when he is on his game.
Most important of all might be Leigh Halfpenny, who has also had some injury concerns. I think his superb goal-kicking can be the difference for Wales.
I was a little surprised to see that scrum-half Mike Phillips has been released from the squad already. It is, of course, difficult to know what has been happening in the weeks of hard training, but I would have thought that his strength and experience might have been useful. It is not bad to have that kind of player in your squad, even if he is third on the list.
Less surprising was hooker Richard Hibbard's omission. I watched him a lot at Gloucester last season and he was a pale shadow of the player who had done so well on the 2013 Lions tour. Australia have beaten Wales in their past 10 meetings and that is bound to have an effect. Wales have a much bigger psychological problem to overcome over Australia than Australia do with England.
Australia are very good at taking the sting out of Wales's game and they have always been able to score at critical times against Wales. So Shaun Edwards's defensive work will be crucial. They have to change that ability for Australia to score when desperately needed.That process must begin by getting their full-strength side working together in Dublin next weekend. It should be a proper Test and a proper indication of where Wales are right now.
