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FORUM / RUGBY /  Sun Tzu anf Nozart - The Wild Numbers Game

Sun Tzu anf Nozart - The Wild Numbers Game

Started by clevermike63 REPLIES832 VIEWS· 31 Jan 2014, 07:54
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MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
02 Feb 2014, 00:57
#41
02 Feb 2014, 00:57#41
Actually shezza, I'm not saying he is a poor defender. I'm simply saying in the test in question, his defence was porous. Frankly we haven't seen enough of him to decide what sort of defender he is likely to be at test level....nor whether he can take his attacking game from the S15, to the more brutal world of test rugby.

As usual, the proof is in the pudding, but first he has to be able to play without injury. 
SH
ShezzaPro2,471 posts
02 Feb 2014, 01:05
#42
02 Feb 2014, 01:05#42
Can't argue with that!
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
02 Feb 2014, 03:22
#43
02 Feb 2014, 03:22#43

Sun Tzu


Lets just get it straight.  I went to England to watch two EOY tests - against Scotland and England - where Du Preez played in.   His service in the Murrayfield  test was so poor, he was replaced at half time.   In the Twickenham test  the forwards recovered a turnover ball and Do Preez was nowhere to be seen to get the ball.   An England player got to the ball - pick it up behind the maul and England scored a try.   Two very average if not poor shows in succession.


I am sure it was 2005 - I was in England for two weeks and returned on 1 December.   My younger brother was in the final stages of cancer and died on 5 December that year.  


Be it as it may - Du Preez was crap in 2005 - end of story.         

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
02 Feb 2014, 03:55
#44
02 Feb 2014, 03:55#44

Mozart


You are talking BS in this case.   Morne is a shit defender with a missed tackle ratio of 19,4% in tests in the RC  last year - and him bumping off a lock gad nothing to do with tackling,


Your hilarious crap on Aplon's defence is also just that.   I had a look at the first seven matches in Super 15 last year was as dollowsL0


Tackles made   -   13

Tackles missed  -   5

Missed tackle ratio    - 27,8%


Sure with that kind of stats Aplon would have tackled Whitelock - what amount of eff is dripping from your mug - must just be raw egg.


First of all you went on the rampage about something you never read properly and did not really come up with any truthfulness in your response - now it is the lying cover up - when are you going to admit that you wrote crap in this case and save face.   

ST
Sun-TzuClub Pro713 posts
02 Feb 2014, 14:19
#45
02 Feb 2014, 14:19#45
 I have just sifted through the three tests Goosen appeared in, and deary me, it does not make for good viewing. Goosen was atrociously poor but the video evidence will suffice; Master Tzu one step ahead of the fan-boys!

Michael, to be sure, you were in England in 2005? That you clearly state, but certainly the bok schedule of 2005 did not include England! Here is the Bok fixture list for 2005:

South Africa v Uruguay
South Africa v France
South Africa v France
South Africa v Australia
South Africa v Australia
South Africa v Australia
South Africa v New Zealand
Australia v South Africa
New Zealand v South Africa
Argentina v South Africa
Wales v South Africa
France v South Africa

So you are lying or very badly mistaken. Interesting how you try to cover yourself with the "well he was crap in 2005 anyway" jibe - Du Preez was very strong throughout 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. At no point are you being honest, and as per the England test of 2004? We lost because of one very simple reason; we were smashed off the ball. Here is a quick recap for you:

Try #1

The Springboks drew level when Cueto found himself isolated on the right flank and was penalised for holding onto the ball, Montgomery's kick scraping over.

But after a couple of strong bursts from Corry, England seized the initiative with an opening try from Hodgson after 15 minutes.


Steve Thompson and Andy Gomarsall combined to release the fly-half into space and he held off the tackles of Jean de Villiers and Breyton Paulse to score at the posts.


Try #2

The impressive Josh Lewsey weaved his way past four tacklers, Hodgson continued the move and Paul's perfectly-judged cross-kick sailed straight into the arms of the waiting Cueto.

But don't take my words for it, lets have a look at the video.



Diagnosis: Anti-Bull, supported by a load of bull; tragic irony? You tell me.

SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
02 Feb 2014, 14:28
#46
02 Feb 2014, 14:28#46
JJ and Taute are not centres........what utter rubbish  
ST
Sun-TzuClub Pro713 posts
02 Feb 2014, 14:37
#47
02 Feb 2014, 14:37#47
 I must actually readjust my view on Taute, but my stance on JJ stands as before. Having reviewed the tests of 2012 I can conclude that Taute showed a natural ability as an attacking 13. His defence was much better than JJ's and even got stuck in a few rucks, causing a couple of turnovers. Perhaps Meyer should have stuck it out with him given that JJ was a total flop. Be that as it may, Taute did suffer the Boks tries against New Zealand, that much cannot be denied. But on attack? He looked good. In fact, some of his lines were very good, creating space for a wide break by Jean; turning hopeless crabbing by Goosen into a positive move. Then another instance where, calling for the ball, he positioned himself in Nonu's blind spot and was open for a burst to the line; Goosen rather setup Kirchner for a swarming and ignored Jean coming a little deeper along the touchline. Conclusion? Taute would most likely have thrived in 2013. I don't think he is perfect, and I still back de Jongh overall, but he did show genuine promise ball in hand and his movement off the ball was very good. He looked natural in the position.
SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
02 Feb 2014, 14:43
#48
02 Feb 2014, 14:43#48
Sun your ignorance is shining bright.......go watch the last test against the AB's and come back and tell me JJ is not an outside centre........you are rugby ignorant.

What part of de Jongh being too small for a test centre do you not get?
ST
Sun-TzuClub Pro713 posts
02 Feb 2014, 14:51
#49
02 Feb 2014, 14:51#49
 Too small? Do you tell me that size equates to strength?

Next, JJ overall was a flop. He beat Savea once, but was a flop overall. HIs contributions were scant, his defence ineffectual, his physical presence naught. Can that be any more obvious? You cling for dear life on one moment that meant nothing as though it somehow warps the big picture into something more pleasant to your eyes. In every way JJ is a wing. A waff fellow with pace. He has poor hands, poor movement off the ball, poor awareness, and can't tackle. He does not tick the boxes. He is a dud, a fake, an imposter, a fraud, a blooper, the joker in the pack. Save yourself from more shplott headed your way.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
02 Feb 2014, 15:33
#50
02 Feb 2014, 15:33#50

 Sun Yzu


"He is a dud, a fake, an imposter, a fraud, a blooper, the joker in the pack. Save yourself from more shplott headed your way."


Back to Morne Steyn again?????????????


The two tests I went to watch the Springboks in the UK - Du Preez was nothing but average to poor.   He did improve in subsequent years and reached his peak in 2007-09.   On his return from Japan he was just slightly better than he was in 2004 - at best average as was proven in the two RC tests he had full games in last year.


 As to the date I made a calculation error.  My brother/s daye of birth was 8 March 1955 - he died at the age of 49 - and would have been 50 on 8 March 2005.  It was in November 2004 - when I went to Europe  to watch the two games I referred to.  Thanks for the correction.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
02 Feb 2014, 15:33
#51
02 Feb 2014, 15:33#51


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
02 Feb 2014, 18:50
#52
02 Feb 2014, 18:50#52
 So Oom you had the year wrong...haha. And while we are cleaning up your errant postings, your stats on Aplon are another biased sample. If you take the whole S15 he makes 36 of 45 tackles for an 80 per cent success ratio. Much better than your biased number. But that number is also misleading...Aplon like de Jongh tries to make deep offensive tackles. They follow kicks at pace and often nail players on the return. But this tactic also produces misses. Correct for that and the number would be excellent
I don't believe we have a better open field tackler than Aplon...but if you can't see the context, it's easy to make the Oom's mistake. What's harder to forgive, is using a biased sample. Clean up your act Mike.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
02 Feb 2014, 19:07
#53
02 Feb 2014, 19:07#53

Mozart


The tear is not the most important thing -- the performance of Du Preez was - he really was sub-par in both the Murrayfield and Twickenham tests.


You  found a weird excuse for all the tackles missed by De Jongh and Aplon - while the real reason often enough is that they get run over by opponents.   If you cannot see that context then clear up YOUR ACT.

SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
02 Feb 2014, 20:42
#54
02 Feb 2014, 20:42#54
Rubbish, he beat Savea, he beat Cruden with a step and he beat Conrad Smith by running straight through him.......thats 3 in one test.......get your facts straight.......he scored 4 tries in 9 starts and set up Kirchner beautifully for his try against Oz.......I suggest you go watch his games again and open your eyes this time.

Size counts in modern rugby.......de Jongh is too small for a test 13........strength has little to do with it when you are not able to impose yourself physically both on attack and in defence.......de Jongh is too light to do this and that is why he wont smell a test match again in a hurry.......he was exposed against England and has never made the squad since for good reason.

There are no 87kg outside centres playing modern test rugby for a reason
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
02 Feb 2014, 23:35
#55
02 Feb 2014, 23:35#55

Mike we can have  debate about whether Aplon is a good tackler or not. But the numbers we use to make our arguments should be reliable. This is the second time you have selected part of the S15 season to make a negative argument about a player you don't like. It took me all of 3 minutes to calculate the numbers for the whole season. So to save 1.5 minutes of your time you were happy to publish false information. Or perhaps you just keep going until you get the result you want, and then stop.

 

Either way it's dishonest and does the Board a disservice. Up your game!

SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
02 Feb 2014, 23:46
#56
02 Feb 2014, 23:46#56
Aplon and de Jongh are technically both great defenders......they have to be in order to survive given their size.........both are great open field tacklers......they go low and are very effective in execution.........their issue is in traffic, when ball carriers are able to ride their attempts at defending.......the same applies on attack in traffic........they get bashed backwards in traffic but are both effective attackers in space.

To succeed at test level you cant fail in traffic and therein lies the issue with these little guys
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
03 Feb 2014, 00:01
#57
03 Feb 2014, 00:01#57

At fullback and wing being a great open field tackler is 90% of the battle. It's a bit different at 13, and much different at 12. That said I have more faith in de Jongh defensively than any other SA 13....especially than Taute and JJ. Juan wouldn't have missed Barrett, Dagg and Bosch.

SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
03 Feb 2014, 00:14
#58
03 Feb 2014, 00:14#58
Well Moz if that is the case, what do you make of all the tackles de Jongh has missed then?

By your assertion, de Jongh never misses tackles??

How do you explain Jean missing more tackles than JJ in the 4 tests played against Oz and NZ last year? You need to answer this for its no use pointing at JJ and Taute defensively when our most experienced centre in Jean has missed more tackles than the player you keep crucifying in JJ
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
03 Feb 2014, 00:35
#59
03 Feb 2014, 00:35#59
Dave....Jean and Juan are much more aggressive defenders than JJ, so they will miss the odd forcing tackle. But for a man on man tackle in backline play, they are close to impregnable. Why? Answer ....because they both have excellent technique.
JJ is anything but water tight, as indicated by his need for special defensive training. So far he hasn't proven he can be relied on....and until he learns to tackle low in space, he will remain a weak defender. 
SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
03 Feb 2014, 00:47
#60
03 Feb 2014, 00:47#60
No Moz that is not an excuse......you cannot simply ignore the fact that Jean missed more tackles than JJ did against Oz and NZ and put it down to him being a more aggressive defender. Fact is, JJ's defensive stats are nowhere near as bad as made out to be and have been clouded by two high profile misses, where his detractors fail to acknowledge the circumstances of those two misses.

It is the inside defenders responsibility to tackle the man with ball in hand........the outside defender will always be exposed when he has to adjust to tackle the player missed by the inside defender.

Its a big adjustment defending at 13, having played wing all your life.......JJ has progressed and his tackling stats improved throughout the year culminating in better defensive stats than his captain by the last 4 test he played in.

Its simply nonsense that JJ cant defend and the stats prove it
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
03 Feb 2014, 01:33
#61
03 Feb 2014, 01:33#61

Mozart


I looked at the first seven games in which Aplon played and the results were consistent and a reliable indicator of what happened in the rest of the games.   You said it took you a very short time to calculate all the games Aplon played in - accuse me of  using part of the Super 15 season to be negative about a player I "don't like" and then did not give any figures which you have calculated from  all matches.


If there were a serious difference in the figures calculated by you for the whole season to prove me wrong and before accusing name of dishonesty,   If the figures you calculated duffer substantially give it - otherwise accept the fact that the dishonest person in this case is not me.


Then another false accusation - namely that I don't like Aplon.  Where did you get that from?   Is that based on your ridiculous statement that Aplon would have stopped the try of Whitelock and the fact that I said no chance.  Please look at Saffex's comments on defence by De Jongh and Aplon and you may get the answer,


Time to own up to the truth for a change.             

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
03 Feb 2014, 02:49
#62
03 Feb 2014, 02:49#62
  So Oom you had the year wrong...haha. And while we are cleaning up your errant postings, your stats on Aplon are another biased sample. If you take the whole S15 he makes 36 of 45 tackles for an 80 per cent success ratio. Much better than your biased number. But that number is also misleading...Aplon like de Jongh tries to make deep offensive tackles. They follow kicks at pace and often nail players on the return. But this tactic also produces misses. Correct for that and the number would be excellent
Posted above....have you lost all your marbles? 
Is that enough truth for you?
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
03 Feb 2014, 09:09
#63
03 Feb 2014, 09:09#63

 Mozart


I have not lost my marbles and am not a liar like you.  


You should not be surprised that I checked whether you did not fiddle the stats of Aplon would you?   The answer is simple you missed out in one tackle made and sub-tracted 2 missed tackles.   The answer was simple he made 37 tackles and missed 11 - making for a missed tackle ratio of 22.9%.  The reason was that in the last four games played - 2 against the Kings (8/0), Cheetahs (2/0) and Bulls (3/0) - he made 13 tackles missing none,   The bulk of those were not surprisingly against the Kings.   Fiddling is something you are very expert in - but this time around you were caught  out. 


You had to manufacture a reason for the high missed tackle ratio of De Jongh and Aplon - so you found one which happened rarely and made that the rule.   You had to do that to justify -


*  the hard fact that De Jongh and Aplon gets run over regularly  by players - bigger and heavier than they are; and


*   the ridiculous statement of yours that Aplon would have stopped the Whitelock try.


You also made a remark about where Goosen attempted the tackle on Whitelock.  Now lets work it out.   Whitelock with the arm stretched out is 3 meters.  He barely reached the tryline after coming down in the tackle.   Take off 1 meter for the stretch - and that means he was tackled at 3 meters out came down at 1 meter out and reached out -    2 meters is allowed for momentum.   Can your addled brain work that one out?             


 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
03 Feb 2014, 16:11
#64
03 Feb 2014, 16:11#64

Let's see x +2+1 =5. And if we solve for x we get 2....hahahahaha....ja we have to allow 2 metres for momentum.  I think that's Newton's fourth law of motion......or perhaps the distance a lightie is displaced when hit by a moving object. Weeeeheee!

 

 

But seriously OOm I think you have missed the fact that the arm protrudes from the shoulder, which means you have to subtract the neck and head......unless of course, bwaahahahahahahahaha, Whitelock has 48 inch arms.

— END OF THREAD —

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