THE MISSION
The Boks have won the past two encounters with the Wallabies, but haven't beaten the Wallabies away since 2013. This game, in many respects, represents their best opportunity to rectify that. In that rare away win, the Boks expertly kicked to the corners and to players who couldn't reliably clear their lines (Folau) and built considerable pressure at the breakdown with their powerful loose trio. The maul was a fearsome weapon that season, and severely hurt Australia that day. Australia simply couldn't play on its terms, struggling to run from deep to build pressure, but getting caught quickly and conceding penalties and points from deep in their half. So it is that Australia return to Quade Cooper to ignite their charges, a sure sign that Rennie isn't confident in rookie Lolesio, who gave a good account of himself against die Schwarzewelle. This one change could be the foot in the door that the Boks need to stall the Wallaby attack, and attack that has actually beaten the All Blacks for production. With the Wallabies looking to play from their backs to give their forwards momentum, this could be a key tactical blunder. Cooper has never thrived when faced with an oppressive line, tending to drift out and exacerbate problems by creating an overly lateral attack - an issue that has plagued Australia for many years. With this, do they have the tools to combat the Bok high balls? Failure to successfully field those kicks will be very hard to overcome on the scoreboard and will take them out of the game. There is no question about that. Then there is the Bok maul, which is fearsome to say the least. If we play on our terms, and succeed with the territorial game, the Wallabies will once again be faced with the challenge of having to build from deep and risk being penalised and making costly defensive errors which lead to points, especially tries. Lapses in defence hurt them time and again against New Zealand, and not all of this can be attributed to cunning Kiwi trickery. Letting their opponent off the hook. In Nic White, the Wallabies have the edge over every South African scrumhalf, but he is curiously on the bench. McDermott has been in excellent form, but I'd have seen White as the man to face what is a unique challenge in world rugby, beating the Boks in the battle of the boot. A Wallaby side playing in the opposition half, and winning the penalty count would be another proposition entirely. It's all a matter of putting themselves in positions where they can hurt a Bok side that has definite vulnerabilities. Whilst the Boks have been the bully boys in the set pieces and the breakdown, their line integrity has been questionable. There haven't been many instances where the Boks have been put under pressure through multiple phases, but when they have had to defend as such against the Lions, they buckled in contact. Against los Pumas in the first test, they were let off the hook by a lack of composure by the plucky Argentinians. Being bamboozled by Sanchez, failing to pick up strike runners, or recognise the threat of support runners, and worst of all, being hit back in contact, allowing the opposition over the advantage line. The Boks look at the game in a very linear way, and it shows in how they pick-up visual cues. Some passive key defenders leave the Boks open for punishment should they allow the Wallabies to get into their stride and build confidence with their ground game. They have enough muscle to start to hurt the Boks, and Kerevi will present a big threat to the Boks. There is no Esterhuizen to keep him at bay on Saturday. The Wallabies are the one team who will look to move defenders around, which could tire out the Bok's heaviest hitters. Fitness is an issue, with the Boks struggling to maintain their shape against los Pumas in both tests, especially the second test. The Wallabies are full of running and are beating lots of defenders. In the end, it comes down to a contrast in styles. Neither side is equipped to win at each other's game, and will have to impose themselves. The Boks can kill the Wallabies at the source, but the Wallabies are the most threatening team with the ball-in-hand.
PREDICTION
The Wallabies have had trouble with accuracy, and a lack of composure at critical moments. This is exactly what the Boks need to beat them. Unless the Wallabies correct that considerably, they will not win this game. It's far more likely that the Boks will successfully control field position, the set pieces, the breakdown and keep the Aussies flummoxed with high balls. This can be quite telling on the scoreboard. History says it should not be, but there is no better time. Boks by 12 points. It won't be pretty, but it will be a W.
PAST RESULTS
20.07.19 - (35) South Africa vs Australia (17) [Ellis Park, Johannesburg]
29.09.18 - (23) South Africa vs Australia (12) [Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Gqeberha]
08.09.18 - (23) Australia vs South Africa (18) [Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane]
30.09.17 - (27) South Africa vs Australia (27) [Freestate Stadium, Bloemfontein]
09.09.17 - (23) Australia vs South Africa (23) [Perth Oval, Perth]
LINEUPS
South Africa: 15.Willie Le Roux, 14.S'busiso Nkosi, 13.Lukhanyo Am, 12.Damian De Allende, 11.Makazole Mapimpi, 10.Handre Pollard, 8.Duane Vermeulen, 7.Franco Mostert, 6.Siya Kolisi, 5.Lood de Jager, 4.Eben Etzebeth, 3.Frans Malherbe, 2.Bongi Mbonambi, 1.Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16.Malcolm Marx, 17.Ox Nche, 18.Vincent Koch, 19.Marco van Staden, 20.Kwagga Smith, 21.Jasper Wiese, 22.Herschel Jantjies, 23.Damian Willemse
Australia: 15.Tom Banks, 14.Andrew Kellaway, 13.Len Ikitau, 12.Samu Kerevi, 11.Marika Koroibete, 10.Quade Cooper, 9.Tate McDermott, 8.Rob Valentini, 7.Michael Hooper, 6.Lachlan Swinton, 5.Matt Philip, 4.Izack Rodda, 3.Allan Alaalatoa, 2.Folau Fainga'a, 1.Angus Bell
Replacements: 16.Feleti Kaitu'u, 17.James Slipper, 18.Taniela Tupou, 19.Robert Leota, 20.Pete Samu, 21.Nic White, 22.Reece Hodge, 23.Jordan Petaia
MATCH DETAILS
Venue: CBUS Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Referee: Like Pearce (ENG)
Assistants: Damon Murphy (AUS), Jordan Way (AUS)
TMO: Matthew Carley (ENG)
