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The highest success ratio for any recent Bok combination?

Started by Mozart87 REPLIES1,231 VIEWS· 15 Dec 2018, 16:10
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MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Dec 2018, 16:10
#1
15 Dec 2018, 16:10#1
If a player had won in 20 out of his 25 tests for the Boks since readmission, we would readily admit that was significant. It would be an 80% win ratio in a period where cracking 70% was exceptional. What is this dream team that almost guaranteed the Boks a win.....why it's the obvious combination of HM as coach and Morne Steyn at flyhalf. The most winning line up of the new millenium thus far. It's kind of obvious, HM without Morne won a lot less....and Morne was never as lethal playing in a different game pattern. But together, over 25 tests, they were massive.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
15 Dec 2018, 16:22
#2
15 Dec 2018, 16:22#2

Moz, you get lies, damn lies and then you get statistics...I like Morné and Heineke isn't too shabby, but this line of reasoning is just wrong....on so many levels.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Dec 2018, 16:35
#3
15 Dec 2018, 16:35#3
Actually no.....it's right on so many levels. The only time HM coached the style he was best at, was when Morne was at 10. It's the true test for the old Bools formula....and it produced wins 80% of the time. What are 'the levels' in which it is wrong? When stats produce a counter intuitive result I always see the 'damn lies and then there's statistics' argument. These aren't even statistics, the numbers aren't processed.....it's simply raw data.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
15 Dec 2018, 16:44
#4
15 Dec 2018, 16:44#4

Mozart

Draad is correct here - you are always come with "stats" as a prove of what?   Some theory you dreamed  up and then finds it is full of holes.  

Lets refer to Meyer and Morne for instance.  In the three years Meyer used Morne at flyhalf - how many tests did SA win against the AB's - none is the answer    How many away tests did SA win against Australia - 1 out of three.    

You include the June 2013 tests (3) against some of the weakest teams ever visiting SA in June any year.   

But lets get back to Morne Steyn and look at what he produced,   He was so poor in 2012 that Meyer was forced to drop him ONCE from the team - he was so poor in 2014 that Meyer was forced into dropping him TWICE from the Springbok team.  

Morne still is part and parcel of the headaches of Stade Fracais.   He us ed to be their bench player and was contracted by Brive to the delight of the Stade Francais.   So what happened then?  Meyer got appointed and called back Morne to Stade Francais,

Sharkbok gave details as to the latest collapse of Stade Francais,   Meyer got Nicolas Sanchez contracted and the first game he played in Stade Francais won.  With Morne it would have been another loss.

Look I know Morne is the type of flyhalf you like.   Mostly have an accurate goal kicking ability with an average 80% success rate.  His kicking out of hand was disastrously poor  and inaccurate.   He virtually never attacked the gain line in ball carries and as a backline pivot he was very poor.    

It was indeed a surprise that Morne lasted as long as he did as Springbok flyhalf,        

 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Dec 2018, 16:53
#5
15 Dec 2018, 16:53#5
Yes we have heard all that rubbish before. Now we are dealing in facts. Win ratio of 80% in 25 tests for the HM/Morne combination....say no more.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
15 Dec 2018, 18:02
#6
15 Dec 2018, 18:02#6

Mozart

Hell - but you are as dim in rugby as YOU ARE  brilliant in finance and economics.   What have you proved about Morne and Meyer?   Really nothing of consequence - because you are ignoring real practical facts.

The question remains - how many tests did the SPRINGBOKS won DESPITE MORNE and how many did they lose or drew BECAUSE OF MORNE?    For that you have to go through all the tests played and then evaluate what really happened.  You know everyone is not interested enough in the never-has-been to spend time doing that - so you can write whatever you wish and hope people will believe that,    

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
15 Dec 2018, 18:47
#7
15 Dec 2018, 18:47#7

OK Moz, so you are saying the raw data suggest Mornè should be at 10 with Meyer coaching the team??? Matfield at 5 and Jean at 12 to boot? When will the data say we should move on?

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
15 Dec 2018, 19:11
#8
15 Dec 2018, 19:11#8
DbDraad, you reasoning is pathetic to say the least. Mozart made a point about the PAST in the past-tense and you are too dim to see past that. Is there ANY part of his post where he promoted those two for the CURRENT set-up???
And if you are also to stupid to see that this is a response to Stupid Mike's newest hate-campaign, then there is no hope for you either!
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
15 Dec 2018, 19:18
#9
15 Dec 2018, 19:18#9

Ag Foeitog Trooth Fairy- so Draad's reasoning is pathetic.   Yours is worse - since the reasoning is totally absent at all.    

First of all what has Morne Steyn to do with this year within the present scenario,   Fact is he failed as Springboks flyhalf since 2012 and is now failing Stade Francais. 

Nice guy he is - but as a rugby flyhalf he was and is a dead loss.

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
15 Dec 2018, 21:14
#10
15 Dec 2018, 21:14#10

Uhm Stupid Maaik,

Sadly I cannot draw you a picture on here.

Let me break it down for you in text. But I do see your reading and comprehensions skills are non-existent...

1. Mozart makes an informative post about the past, without mentioning the present

2. DbDraad tries to apply it to the present

3. I remind DbDraad that it is merely a post about the past

4. You reply "First of all what has Morne Steyn to do with this year within the present scenario"...

Now let me try to explain it S L O W L Y

The past is not the same as "this year within the present"

Next time, before you try argue against yourself. Stop for a moment and FOCUS! After all, it's not that difficult! Manuke!

ND
NdabaningiClub Pro116 posts
15 Dec 2018, 21:35
#11
15 Dec 2018, 21:35#11

Sport with the highest mortality rate: Lawn Bowls.

r0.99 between US spending on science, space and technology and suicides by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation.

r0.94 between Per capita cheese consumption and number of people who died by becoming entangled in their bedsheets.

This clown deals almost exclusively in cum hoc ergo propter hoc. Giggling, hebephrenic Wolfgang is a fitting icon.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
15 Dec 2018, 22:21
#12
15 Dec 2018, 22:21#12

Truth, before calling someone STUPID...repratedly, you should mabe check your own comprehension skills. Tell me, what does a question mark mean? Why does one ask a question? 

Whoosh!!!


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Dec 2018, 22:33
#13
15 Dec 2018, 22:33#13
Oh boy Bingi just googled false correlations....well done. Now back to the discussion. If there is any way of testing the proposition that HM/Morne is a succesful combination, other than looking at results, I'd like to hear it. The argument that they never beat NZ in two away matches and one at home is reasonable. But I would counter and say in the home NZ match we played almost exclusively ball in hand rugby, not HM rugby. And more to the point, NZ through bitter experience in 2009 became better at countering HM's approach. Other nations clearly had no clue. Hm/Morne were 20/22 against all other nations for a winning ratio of 91%. Kinda beats the 49% win ratio since HM left.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
15 Dec 2018, 23:09
#14
15 Dec 2018, 23:09#14

21 starts....5 losses and 2 draws...14 wins...67%...still good but not 80%


DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
15 Dec 2018, 23:35
#15
15 Dec 2018, 23:35#15

Frans Steyn at fullback under Snô rre... 8 wins from 9 starts...89%

2 wins vs The Lions

3 wins vs NZ

2 wins vs Aus and the 1 loss

1 win vs Wales

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Dec 2018, 23:47
#16
15 Dec 2018, 23:47#16
So you eliminate his 5 games as reserve, including games he won like the 2014 match against Bargie. Let's accept that for the moment, even though those were in 4 cases easier tests, where HM was more likely to experiment. So we get down to 21 tests with 14 wins, 2 draws. The convention is to score half a point for draws, or to leave them out of the denominator. So you get either 71.4% or 73.7 % if you eliminate the draws. Your number is the worst case possible....eliminating games he came on as reserve to actually win the game.....and then giving zero credit for draws, but including them in the games played. Sies!
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
15 Dec 2018, 23:55
#17
15 Dec 2018, 23:55#17

Not sies, it's raw data...and I mentioned the draws...and I said it's still a very good stat. ...I'm not against Meyer or Morné.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
15 Dec 2018, 23:56
#18
15 Dec 2018, 23:56#18
Frans 8 wins from 10 starts at fullback....both losses vs Australia. An impressive record for Frans but a much smaller sample set. Still Frans is one of our players, like Morne, who came through in the clutch.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Dec 2018, 00:01
#19
16 Dec 2018, 00:01#19
Work on that raw data!
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
16 Dec 2018, 00:03
#20
16 Dec 2018, 00:03#20

Smaller sample set,  but all against top of the tier teams.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
16 Dec 2018, 00:05
#21
16 Dec 2018, 00:05#21

If you start working on the data, one tends to slant things a bit

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
16 Dec 2018, 00:05
#22
16 Dec 2018, 00:05#22

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Dec 2018, 00:48
#23
16 Dec 2018, 00:48#23
See stats can be fun....you're laughing, or is it grimacing? Truth had this one nailed......when Gomtok fingers a Morne change for his team win, when 14 players in total were changed.....I have a moral obligation to set the record straight. I believe the proper reading of his record was 26 tests, 19 wins and 2 draws (counting for 1/2 a win each) for a win ratio of 78%....or 24 decided tests with 19 wins for a win ratio of 80%. Either way, it's a joke to see the continued bashing of HM and Morne, and hyping of Rassie, when their joint record is so vastly superior. How fans can be sold a bill of goods like the supposed progress under Rassie, when we have just had such an abysmal YE tour, boggles the mind.
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,253 posts
16 Dec 2018, 00:57
#24
16 Dec 2018, 00:57#24
Kitch Kristie, the 1995 Bok coach had a 100% record with every player he ever worked with. I think he might have played over 12 games, before he had to retire due to health conditions.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
16 Dec 2018, 03:37
#25
16 Dec 2018, 03:37#25

This story should just be seen the last two weeks.   The last two weeks in games between Stade Francais and Ospreys with the famous Meyer - Morne combination and without the combination so beloved by Mozart  is clear:-

With your beloved Morne  

Stade Francais lost by 20 - 51

Without your beloved Morne  

Stade Francais won by 12-3

Smell the coffee dear Mozart?   Those are real facts this year happening in succeeding weeks,   

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Dec 2018, 04:10
#26
16 Dec 2018, 04:10#26
Shark if you choose a player who only played in a good year, one can get spectacular results. Andrew Aitken in the Mallett team never experienced a loss in his 7 starts. But the Morne thing was over 4 years and as the flyhalf and point scorer, his link to the results was more direct. And we haven't had that kind of thing since 2000...although the SH part of 2009, again with Morne at the helm, was close....7 wins/2 losses against the Lions, NZ and Oz. Today we can only dream about that kind of success.
PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
16 Dec 2018, 07:58
#27
16 Dec 2018, 07:58#27

With your beloved Morne  

Stade Francais lost by 20 - 51

Without your beloved Morne  (and another 12 of the previous starters)

Stade Francais won by 12-3

Haha, and so the truth surfaces. Despite Mike's protestations that his post was actually about Sanchez, here's more proof that it was all about Morne. I added in the necess ary correction.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
16 Dec 2018, 09:00
#28
16 Dec 2018, 09:00#28

Bashing Morne, Fransie and Meyer is Maaik's catnip. Can't help himself. Setting Maaik straight is catnip too for some...

PA
PakieCaptain17,321 posts
16 Dec 2018, 10:02
#29
16 Dec 2018, 10:02#29

I don't have all that much else to do in my free time, Draad

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
16 Dec 2018, 10:23
#30
16 Dec 2018, 10:23#30

Lol Pakie...I'm OK with Maaik, but there are some others akin to catnip for me.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
16 Dec 2018, 13:17
#31
16 Dec 2018, 13:17#31

So lets look a bit at Morne's performance in tests:-

Under De Villiers

Morne had one brilliant test in 2009 against the AB's  in which he scored all 31 Springbok test by scoring 1 try and being successful with 8 penalty and his own try conversion.

He developed a reputation as a goal kicking player - with very little else to offer.

Under Meyer

2012

Played  in  7 tests -  Wins    3

                                 Draws  2

                                 Losses  2

Was then dropped by Meyer because of sub-par performances 

2013

Played  in  12 tests  - Wins   10

                                  Losses   2

2014

Played  in 3 tests   -    Wins     2

                                    Losses  1

Was then dropped from the test squad and never again started under Meyer in any test

Summary of Games under Meyer

Wins             -       15

Losses           -        5

Draws           -        2

Not an entirely convincing winning record by any account.   In the period mentioned -

*    Morne's defense record was good in 2012 and deteriorated badly in 2013 and 2014

*    His goal kicking - normally his only real  asset - in 2012 deserted him, that being the reason for his dropping by Meyer from the test squad;

*    his kicking out of hand in 2012 was very, very poor

*    the Springboks played Scotland, Italy and Samoa in the June series and won all three - how much does these three wins against minions counted in a broader context and advancing the winning record by dubious means;

*    Morne  regained his goal kicking form in 2013 - but there was nothing to write home about in the rest of his games - his out of hand kicking was still sub-satndard and his defense was poor, while his decision-making went for a loop

*    in the second Welsh test in June 2014 - Morne - despite a narrow win - had a shockingly poor game and Meyer dropped him from the team in the next three tests;

*    he was bought back in the away test against Australia and was so poor that he lost the test in Perth on his own through horrible defense - making 8 tackles missing 7 - and a disastrous penalty line kick that did not find touch and led top the counter-attack resulting in an Aussie try and loss of the test.

Mozart's comments

"What is this dream team that almost guaranteed the Boks a win.....why it's the obvious combination of HM as coach and Morne Steyn at flyhalf. The most winning line up of the new millenium thus far.

It's kind of obvious, HM without Morne won a lot less....and Morne was never as lethal playing in a different game pattern. But together, over 25 tests, they were massive." 

So what was the real situation as to Morne's record under Meyer looking only at his starting tests.  There never was a 20 wins out of 25 tests played record.  The real figures are outlined above.

What Mozart failed to mention  was that Morne was so disastrously poor in 2012 that a tearful Meyer dropped him from the playing squad for the rest of the RC series and the EOYT (5).

In 2013 - the June tests were against minnow teams and as a result the winning story was somewhat distorted.

In 2014 - Morne was shockingly poor in the second Wales test and  disaster in the Perth test against Australia.

How the above can be regarded as a massive winning record by inflating the figures iro tests played under Meyer - which were actually 22  and by ignoring drawn games only Mozart can explain.  In the end what he wrote is addition to his annual BS mountain.

            

       

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
16 Dec 2018, 13:30
#32
16 Dec 2018, 13:30#32


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Dec 2018, 16:09
#33
16 Dec 2018, 16:09#33
41/22 win/loss in the Tests Morne was in the match 22...for a 65% win ratio. 58/35 in all the Bok tests over that period for a 62% win ratio. So 17 wins and 13 losses in the tests he never played in for a win ratio of 57%. So over his whole Bok career the Boks won 65% of the time when Morne played.....and won 57% of the time when he didn't play......over exactly the same time period. Case closed.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
16 Dec 2018, 16:27
#34
16 Dec 2018, 16:27#34

So suddenly it is not the starting line-ups that count.   And the story is totally different from what you wrote above,   Making out that it as wrong not to continue using Morne was a mistake by Meyer.   

What is that period you are freeing to?   In your opening statement you refer to the period of Meyer and Steyn as a combination     In the Meyer era the Boks in total played n 49 tests.   In those games Morne started in 22 tests only - and I left out the few times he was on the bench.  

So Meyer should have kept Morne and continue losing games because he was all along substandard and by 2014 a total disaster?           

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
16 Dec 2018, 16:27
#35
16 Dec 2018, 16:27#35

So suddenly it is not the starting line-ups that count.   And the story is totally different from what you wrote above,   Making out that it as wrong not to continue using Morne was a mistake by Meyer.   

What is that period you are freeing to?   In your opening statement you refer to the period of Meyer and Steyn as a combination     In the Meyer era the Boks in total played n 49 tests.   In those games Morne started in 22 tests only - and I left out the few times he was on the bench.  

So Meyer should have kept Morne and continue losing games because he was all along substandard and by 2014 a total disaster?           

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Dec 2018, 23:10
#36
16 Dec 2018, 23:10#36
What I posted above was Morne under HM you blithering idiot. It turned out Morne was a huge winner and so was HM when Morne played. Below I have listed All.....yes All Morne's matches and the matches over the Same ....yes the Same period in which he didn't play. The Boks were 14% more likely to win when Morne played....chew on that hard biscuit.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 03:52
#37
17 Dec 2018, 03:52#37

No Mozart a hard biscuit must have some substance.   Morne was by 2014 anything bar  a match loser.   The fact is he was dropped by Meyer after the Perth fiasco so do you blame Meyer for dropping Morne without any reason whatsoever?   

After all Meyer stated that he select players on reputation and not based necessarily on present performance.   Knowing that - Morne must have been very poor for Meyer to even consider dropping his braai friend from the squad in 2014.   

Anyway - it was Meyer total ignorance in his team, selection that ultimately caused the higher loss ratio than when the disastrous Morne was dropped.   Imagine trying to win test when the team has had so many has-beens and never-has-beens in the squad,   Just consider the Japan disaster as an example.   And the losses in all the test in the RC in 2015    In the period November 2014 and 19 September 2015   - the Springboks under Meyer won only 2 tests - three if the practice game against the Argentinian "B" team is taken into account as a "test".   Woul;d Morne have made a difference in those 8 (9) tests.   Sure - he would have in my opinion/   The losing margins would have been double what they in fact were if his performances in the three tests he did  play are borne in mind.

By  2015 Morne firmly established  himself as the Stade Francais BENCH flyhalf and he remained that until the end of his previous contract with the club in 2017.   And the result of Meyer's generosity was the record losing margins of Stade Francais this year,   The last two weekends s a typical example of what happens if Morne did play and did not.

So Mozart - what really is the situation in this case?   I would think that instead of discussing things practically you use statistical abuse to prove what???????????       

    
.                

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Dec 2018, 07:26
#38
17 Dec 2018, 07:26#38
The facts speak for themselves, over the period of his career the Boks were 14% more likely to win when Morne was playing. Don't argue with me, argue with the facts.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 08:23
#39
17 Dec 2018, 08:23#39

The fact is that Morne was proven to be one of the worst flyhalfs imaginable and he was dropped from the team three times exactly for that reason.   You cannot  use stats to disprove his chronically poor performances - bar kicking a goal -  and to prove that he was in fact a good enough flyhalf without  using his own nightmare stats anyway. 

In any event Meyer's  whole selection approach started to go drastically wrong in 2014 and  it was not only Morne that went into downward slide.   You can check the performance of virtually everyone of his "rugby geriatrics"  that went the same way,     One cannot win rugby with that kind  of situation.   

But then you refuse to recognize facts happening on the rugby field and rely on trying to use stats for all kinds of impossible means - so there is nothing really to discuss.   

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 08:23
#40
17 Dec 2018, 08:23#40

The fact is that Morne was proven to be one of the worst flyhalfs imaginable and he was dropped from the team three times exactly for that reason.   You cannot  use stats to disprove his chronically poor performances - bar kicking a goal -  and to prove that he was in fact a good enough flyhalf without  using his own nightmare stats anyway. 

In any event Meyer's  whole selection approach started to go drastically wrong in 2014 and  it was not only Morne that went into downward slide.   You can check the performance of virtually everyone of his "rugby geriatrics"  that went the same way,     One cannot win rugby with that kind  of situation.   

But then you refuse to recognize facts happening on the rugby field and rely on trying to use stats for all kinds of impossible means - so there is nothing really to discuss.   

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