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The highest success ratio for any recent Bok combination?

Started by Mozart87 REPLIES1,231 VIEWS· 15 Dec 2018, 16:10
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ND
NdabaningiClub Pro116 posts
17 Dec 2018, 09:45
#41
17 Dec 2018, 09:45#41

What you don't seem to get you old cnt is that there's a difference between 'when' Morne is playing and 'because' Morne is playing. It's a fundamental statistical distinction. Stay away from the field. It's clearly not one of your strengths.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 09:57
#42
17 Dec 2018, 09:57#42

Viva le difference - BSter

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Dec 2018, 17:04
#43
17 Dec 2018, 17:04#43
Back to the old correlation isn't causation argument Mole....is that all you've got? Let me broaden your horizons, read up on sample size theory. Morne 14% more like to win....that's all you need to know.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 17:19
#44
17 Dec 2018, 17:19#44

Mozart

The moment you start with statistical abuse it is no use discussing anything with you.  Go and read the definition of statistical abuse again and you will find why you are indeed abusing it bdly in this case. .  

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Dec 2018, 17:52
#45
17 Dec 2018, 17:52#45
Okay let me help a bit more....we have a population (Morne's tests) with a probability of success of 0.65. The question is, are the results from games Morne never played the same.....ie is the team unaffected by his absence. Using the binomial probability distribution.....a sample size of 30 (games Morne never played in during the same period), would only produce 17 wins or less (the number of wins in games Morne never played in).....0.126 % of the time. That means 87.2% of the time, the team with Morne playing would produce better results than the team without Morne. Feel better now?
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 17:58
#46
17 Dec 2018, 17:58#46

Frankly not interested in disconnected issues be u sed to prove something.    Rugby is a team game and a player can bugger up and being protected by teammates through better performances on their part - making w\hat you write a mountain of BS.    

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Dec 2018, 18:40
#47
17 Dec 2018, 18:40#47
No what I'm writing about is the binomial theorem.....what you are writing about is having no clue. Of course players make a difference in a large sample of tests.....especially when that player averages a massive 11 points a game. Morne Steyn is a match winner, the numbers are clear.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Dec 2018, 19:27
#48
17 Dec 2018, 19:27#48

So the moon is made of green cheese?

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
18 Dec 2018, 08:26
#49
18 Dec 2018, 08:26#49

Maaik, you might not like Morné or Fransie, but the Boks were at their best when these players were in their prime...and Moz's stats are clear. Morné was chosen for a specific game plan and he delivered perfectly...time after time. Brilliant servant of Bok rugby.

Having said that, he was no Dan Carter or Johnny Wilkinson, but he was a solid Bok...Back in the day, Naas had his haters too, but today he is recognised as one of the greats...I hope Morné too gets that recognition in the future.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
18 Dec 2018, 11:41
#50
18 Dec 2018, 11:41#50

Draad

My problem is that Morne is personally a very nice guy who fit in perfectly in Meyer's game plan.  That game plan an Meyer's selection was bound to fail and the signs were bad all along.   

Meyer basically allows for kicking by the flyhalf and crashballing by the inside center,   The fact is that what went wrong was that in 2012 Morne's kicking game - both at goal and his out of hand kicking went pear shaped and a tearful Meyer was forced into dropping him after the Dunedin test where he missed 7 kicks at goal and made a number of out-of-hand kicks that even the commentators called BS while broadcasting the game. 

Meyer did not use Morne after that fiasco in 2012.   Morne was fine in 2013 - but then the wheels came off during 2014.   The signs were bad in the second Welsh test and Morne was then not used in the next three tests.  Pollard replaced him in the Scotland test in which he was brilliant.  However, Pollard never really was a kicking flyhalf and his progress in the two Argentine test was not as required by Meyer - Meyer then went back to Morne in the Perth test with disastrous consequences.   The main problem was with the out-of-hand kicking by Morne.  

Pollard was a mixed  bag when it came to  the 2014 tests - he played his normal attacking game against the AB's in Johannesburg in 2014 scoring two tries himself.   However, in the EOYT he was dubious and was regularly replaced by Meyer - basically because his kicking out-of-hand went pear shaped.

I think that the main problem was the Meyer's kicking game problem - as well as his insisting on usage of the 12 as a crashballer.   It became worse in the WC - where the first receiver of the ball from the scrumhalf was in more than 75% of passing was NOT the flyhalf - but normally a forward.   The only role of the flyhalf was to kick the leather off the ball.

Maybe one should be kinder to Morne - he was forced into playing a poor form of rugby by Meyer and that really destroyed him as a player.   Fact is it nearly destroyed Pollard as well - if one saw what he produced in 2015 and compare that with what he produced this year.

      

              


CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
19 Dec 2018, 00:31
#51
19 Dec 2018, 00:31#51

"Dec 17, 2018, 08:23


The fact is that Morne was proven to be one of the worst flyhalfs imaginable......"

The following was posted, in July 2014, by someone with a vastly better understanding of rugby than you

" So, I tried to check up on some of the figures in general, just to confirm a suspicion I had about certain people's perspectives (Perceptions once again)

 

I am including some other names from the past, when we played less tests too, to make the comparisons complete

 

Most tests:

1. (56) Morne Steyn

2. (42) Butch James

3. (35) Henry Honiball

4. (32) Jaco vd Westhuyzen

5. (32) Pat Lambie

6. (31) Andre Pretorius

7. (28) Naas Botha

... (25) Piet Visagie

... (22) Joel Stransky

... (13) Jannie de Beer

... (10) Hansie Brewis

 

Not bad for a useless player in such an important position.

 

Averages, as a totals comparison is not really fair to anyone.

Points scored per game:

1. (13.9) Jannie de Beer

2. (11.7) Morne Steyn (660 points total)

3. (11.14) Naas Botha (second most total points for a flyhalf 312)

4. (10.9) Joel Stransky

5. (5.4) Andre Pretorius

6. (5.2) Piet Visagie

7. (4.46) Henry Honiball

... (2.1) Pat Lambie

... (1.6) Johan Goosen

 

An interesting point here, is that in his last 13 starts, Morne Steyn's average was 13.38, which indicates an improvement, directly opposed to the alleged "slump in form"... If I include his few minutes (5) as fullback replacement, it is 12.42 points per game average over the last 14 matches.

We can also add the fact that the average number of tries scored by the Springboks in Morne's last 13 starts was 4 per match (52 tries in total).

 

 

Average tries scored per match:

1. (0.27) Joel Stransky

2. (0.24) Piet Visagie

3. (0.15) Jannie de Beer

4. (0.15) Jaco vd Westhuyzen

5. (0.143) Morne Steyn

6. (0.1) Hansie Brewis

7. (0.07) Butch James

8. (0.07) Naas Botha

... (0.03) Pat Lambie

... (0) Johan Goosen

 

In terms of numbers, Morne scored 8 tries, Piet Visagie and Joel Stransky 6, Jaco vd Westhuyzen 5.... And the great running flyhalf Homiball a full one! Even Honiball's sub (Franco Smith), scored 2...

 

Another interesting point from this, is that Danie Craven had the following to say about probably our best running flyhalf, ever (Piet Visagie)... "He reminded me of Tony Harris in many ways - a player who seldom broke but when he did, it usually led to a try."

(I selected Visagie because he only played against the top rated teams and never played against the "weaker" teams like Argentina, Italy, Samoa, etc.)

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Dec 2018, 11:29
#52
19 Dec 2018, 11:29#52

Ceradunce 

I saw a few of the tries scored by Morne - all bar 1 against the AB's was against minion teams.

Morne's point count is  660 in 56 games - of which 35 represented tries scored and  625 kicking at goal.   I have never said Morne was a poor goal kicker - but that was the only positive in his game.

He virtually never attacked the gain line because he stood too deep in the pocket - and his out of hand kicking was poor (inaccurate and normally excellent only in giving away ball possession.  

What was funny was how opposing teams dealt with Morne - the AB's were maters at that when the Springboks was likely to gain possession from set pieces or in maul situations.   The wings fell back  to cover kicks,  which normally were too far to allow for follow-up and the result always were counter-attacks by the AB backline with frequent disastrous consequences.    The loosies would ignore Morne totally from a defensive perspective and went straight for the inside center - so the latter had three defenders on top of him by the time Morne passed the ball to him.

Hansen was perfectly clear when before the Johannesburg test claimed that the AB's exactly knows what to expect from Morne - but in Pollard they do not know what to expect.    The result was obvious - and Pollard with two tries and Lambie with a decisive pressure kick won the game - despite a determined effort by Matfield to donate victory to the AB's.   That was the only game against the AB's in all four years Meyer coached the Springboks.

So my calculation iro starting games under Meyer by Morne Steyn is correct.    So lets look at the games he was on the bench.    I did the following summary iro those:-

Ireland Test   2012   -    Morne on the bench – never played at all – Springbok win

Scotland test  2012   -   Morne was on the bench and came on in minute 72 – neither team scored any points after minute  72 and the match stats of Steyn was as follows:- 

Steyn

0/0

0

0/0/0

0

0

0

0

0

2/0

0/0

0

0/0

 Note the number of zeroes.   Springbok win

Argentina test   2014  - Morne played for 40 minutes and did convert a penalty - 10 of the 13 points scored by the Springboks were scored in the first half and the penalty conversion made NO difference to the outcome of the game

Steyn

0/0

3

5/6/2

6

0

0

0

0

1/0

0/0

0

0/0

 Argentina 2014 – Steyn came on and contributed a penalty and two try conversions – which contributed to a Springbok win so give him credit for that one – but  was otherwise very poor as shown by his stats:- 

Steyn

0/0

7

3/6/0

0

0

0

0

1

0/0

0/0

0

0/0

 USA  (WC) – Steyn came on at minute 55 when the Springboks was already 33-0 in the lead.   He converted three tries scored subsequently  - but missed two such kicks.   His contribution to the outcome was consequently near to zero as was shown in his stats:-   

Steyn

0/1

6

7/11/1

6

0

0

0

0

1/1

0/0

0

0/0

So Mozart credited Morne Steyn with wins in four games he came on as a replacement.   All four games was won by the Springboks – but in three of the games the Springboks won – they would have won even if Morne was NOT playing at all, while th forth one was a toss-up       

In the fourth game he converted  two tries scored and converted a penalty – so give him credit for that one as the winning margin was only 2 points.

The above shows up the ridiculous basis  Mozart used  in this case.   In all four bench games Morne played in his role was minimal other than in one game where he did near to zero – but at least kicked 3 conversions,  which may or may not have affected  the outcome.      

.           

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
19 Dec 2018, 14:53
#53
19 Dec 2018, 14:53#53

I saw a few of the tries scored by Morne - all bar 1 against the AB's was against minion teams.

Sooooo, by your reasoning South Africa is a "minion team" too, as South Africa is ranked below one of those "minion teams"

BL
bluebokPro3,977 posts
19 Dec 2018, 15:30
#54
19 Dec 2018, 15:30#54
Mike, Steyn was a good flyhalf. You keep bashing him, but the game was different when he was at his peak. He slotted in perfectly with our game plan between 2008 and 2011, and was a very very important cog in the Bok successes of that era. I would actually go even further and say that without him, our results would have looked significantly worse. As the game developed after 2011 and with the retirement or the significant drop in form of a lot of Bok players, his effectiveness was reduced, but he remains a Bok that deserved his call up, deserved the jersey, and deserved all the records he held/holds. Did he allow the changing game to move on without him? Yes. But when you say things like he was the worst Bok fly half ever when discussing him, you just look stupid.   
I get that you don't like him, you are more than entitled to that opinion, but you can't create this hugely negative narrative just to discredit him, and expect it to override the truth about how good he was in his prime years. His records and the Bok results when he was in his prime speak for themselves. Y ou just need to learn to give credit where due and admit that he was a good and very effective player, even if you don't like him. 
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
19 Dec 2018, 15:33
#55
19 Dec 2018, 15:33#55
Very well put Bloo.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Dec 2018, 15:58
#56
19 Dec 2018, 15:58#56

BB

My problem with Morne's performance actually commenced in 2012 and it was confirmed by Meyer's dropping him from the starting team in 2012 and then also twice in 2014.  

You are probably right about Morne's inability to move forward in the game after 2011.   Mozart never referred to his prime years and I did say he was very good in 2009,   However, there is a long history of good players who get sassed out by the opposition coaches and they can then deal with such key players.   By 2014 Hansen made a comment that indicates as such.   That reduces good players to become problematic and ineffective if they cannot adjust their own game.

Morne never was able to adjust his game and stay effective and that is still even in his present club a problem for him.   

The problem with Mozart's posting was that it was an airy fairy statement without much substance,    He tried to deal with some statistics based on what is always branded as statistical abuse and not acceptable.    There is a massive number of variable factors applicable to a team sport and to take just two out of the variables is not of any value. 

I have no reason to dislike Morne as a person - what bothers me was his performance and at times even inaccurate execution of his kicking function - be it at goal  or out-of-hand.   I am sometimes horrible about expressions and may comment about Morne after 2012 was too negative and I am quite willing to apologize for that..   

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Dec 2018, 16:24
#57
19 Dec 2018, 16:24#57

The Trooth Fairy

The teams SA played in June 2013 were Italy, Scotland and Samoa,   Scotland has improved drastically since 2013 by bringing in players from the SH and they are at present much stonger than they were in 2013.

However - none of the teams are ranked above SA at this stage and in your statement above you showed the incredible stupidity always expected from you - totally idiotic as per normal.        

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
19 Dec 2018, 16:52
#58
19 Dec 2018, 16:52#58
“Posted by: clevermike (33627 posts) Dec 19, 2018, 15:58 BB My problem with Morne's performance actually commenced in 2012 and it was confirmed by Meyer's dropping him from the starting team in 2012 and then also twice in 2014. ” Bullshit. You have been telling us over and over and over how you have been “evaluating “ him since you first saw him in an SA under age team and you have concluded then, already, that he was crap. In fact, I’m sure that with a bit of searching, we would be able to find arguments about him on this very site as far back as 2011. Sies man. Stop lying.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Dec 2018, 17:25
#59
19 Dec 2018, 17:25#59

Listen dimness

I saw Morne in the Under 21 WC final in Argentina and he went to pieces in the game and badly so.   I once wrote about it and indicated it was for him a very poor game. 

Fine that was factual and not a lie.   For the rest I never saw Morne playing regularly in games until 2009 and never commented on him at all.   He was also in the 2011 WC squad - but never really a house on fire - but still no negative comments on my part.

It was Dave (Saffex) who severely criticized him in 2012 and after a few tests I shared Dave's  view and have been critical about him  ever since.   There was no lie about Morne I ever spread,  Unlike you  and Mozart I do not lie my way out of things  or use statistical abuse to justify your pathetic statements.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
19 Dec 2018, 18:05
#60
19 Dec 2018, 18:05#60
Just because you have no degree and are too stupid to understand even the most basic statistical comments doesn't make it abuse Gomtok.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Dec 2018, 19:17
#61
19 Dec 2018, 19:17#61

Mozart

Because you are a mathematical genius without any real knowledge of  Rugby - m\turns you into a fool of unimaginable proportions.

Read the following nd maybe you would get the message:-   

"There is a massive number of variable factors applicable to a team sport and to take just two out of the variables is not of any value." 

It I clear you do not understand that since you always blame  the players you personally dislike  for mistakes they made as career-defining and blame individuals for match losses based on even imagined occurrences.   Very stupid from a rugby perspective.  

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
19 Dec 2018, 20:22
#62
19 Dec 2018, 20:22#62

"However - none of the teams are ranked above SA at this stage and in your statement above you showed the incredible stupidity always expected from you - totally idiotic as per normal."

I will give you 1 chance to correct your error. Then it is open season!

sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,253 posts
19 Dec 2018, 23:23
#63
19 Dec 2018, 23:23#63
A kicking flyhalf is effective behind a dominant pack. Morne was always a good pole kicker, and for the most part also good at kicking for territory. 
Aimless kicking is part of all of our flyhalves, and sometimes it seems the coaches are telling the players to kick aimlessly. 

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 01:21
#64
20 Dec 2018, 01:21#64

Trooth Fairy

Here is the ranking of World Rugby in December 2018:-

1 New Zealand

2 Ireland

3  Wales

4   England

5  South Africa

6   Australia 

7   Scotland

8   Fiji

9  France

15  Italy

16  Samoa 

"I will give you 1 chance to correct your error. Then it is open season!"   I feel so threatened by a birdbrained idiot that I am shaking (with laughter)/  LMAO  

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
20 Dec 2018, 09:37
#65
20 Dec 2018, 09:37#65

Here is the ranking of World Rugby in December 2018:-

1 New Zealand
2 Ireland
3  Wales
4   England
5  South Africa
6   Australia 
7.  Scotland
8   Fiji
9  France
15  Italy
16  Samoa

England (Arsehole!)
9 June 2012 (Idiot!)
Durban (Incredibly Stupid person!)
45th minute (Moron!)

Absolute proof of your belief of the fantasy world that you created in your mind. I was so nice that I gave you the opportunity to figure it out on your own, but you failed miserably. You were not even able to do what a fifth grader would be able to do and that gives all of us the insight on the level we need to communicate at when speaking down to you...

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 09:52
#66
20 Dec 2018, 09:52#66

Dimwit  and know nothing

We did not play England in June 2013 - the teams we did play were Scotland, Italy and Samoa.   I even highlighted those teams for you above and you are too stupid to realize what was going on.   The braindead reigned supreme and you are as always a complete idiot.   Do you even know what year it is now?

Nobody could be more idiotic than you are - you even beat Ceradunce  by a short head.   LMAO.      

 

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
20 Dec 2018, 09:55
#67
20 Dec 2018, 09:55#67

"I saw a few of the tries scored by Morne - all bar 1 against the AB's was against minion teams."

9 June 2012 (Idiot!)


CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 10:07
#68
20 Dec 2018, 10:07#68

Foer-tog dofdoos at it again.   She first shouted about the three tests in 2013 against minion teams and when the real truth hid the blank space in her br ain cavity - now she changed her tune totally.   

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
20 Dec 2018, 10:23
#69
20 Dec 2018, 10:23#69

I didn't know you were female. I thought it was man-boobs!

By the way... Show me one post int his thread where I refer to (2012+1) <---just to make your search easier

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 10:36
#70
20 Dec 2018, 10:36#70

It is not necessary - dim c u n t.   You do not understand what is written about rugby anyway,    Have you cottoned on what year it is now?  

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
20 Dec 2018, 11:28
#71
20 Dec 2018, 11:28#71

"I saw a few of the tries scored by Morne - all bar 1 against the AB's was against minion teams."

The quote above is from you!

"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"
"All bar 1"

Is it sinking in!

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 12:52
#72
20 Dec 2018, 12:52#72

So English is beyond your level of  comprehension.   Let em quote what I wrote:-

 "I saw a few of the tries scored by Morne - all bar 1 against the AB's was against minion teams."

You know what a few means - dim c u n t.   I never claimed that I saw all the tries scored by Morne.  The only one I saw he scored was against the AB's and then also the one against Samoa and other minion teams.  What I can remember from that try was a comment by the commentator saying - you are seeing a rare occurrence.  

So since you f#cked up badly in trying to defend Morne -  the diversion followed  as per normal.   It may work in your empty brain cavity - but is total BS.   

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
20 Dec 2018, 13:19
#73
20 Dec 2018, 13:19#73

So, Your excuse is ignorance then?

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 14:53
#74
20 Dec 2018, 14:53#74

Never WAS - IGNORANCE IS NAMED "THE TRUTH" ON THIS SITE.

Listen I am still waiting for any rugby post by you - the only thing you ever write on site is  responding on what I wrote.   You obviously has no idea of the game and therefore has to try and help the disastrous Meyer and Morne.

  

TT
The_TruthClub Pro471 posts
20 Dec 2018, 15:19
#75
20 Dec 2018, 15:19#75
  1. Listen (No! I can't hear a word you type)
  2. I am still waiting for any rugby post by you (Most of the other posters know something about rugby, so I don't have to post that much anyway. I mainly only post when a lost soul like you need my help.)
  3.  - the only thing you ever write on site is  responding on what I wrote. (It's because you are such an easy target because of the unbelievably stupid things you continuously say.)
  4.    You obviously has no idea of the game (Hahaha, firstly it's "have". And secondly, you absolutely just have no clue... More than that I am not going to say...)
  5. and therefore has to try and help the disastrous Meyer and Morne. (I am also absolutely sure that they don't need my help in any sphere of life. Firstly your opinion of them is worthless and insignificant in their lives and it will make no difference to them, whatever your opinion might be. Secondly, I am sure that they are quite happy with the recognition they get for their accomplishments and they are just as comfortable with the financial gains they they already got and still get from their "disastrous" rugby careers...)
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
20 Dec 2018, 15:38
#76
20 Dec 2018, 15:38#76
This was like a train wreck in slow motion...and so we end up with Tokkie claiming he saw the tries against the likes of Italy and Fiji......but not the try that won the series against England at Kingspark......when he was living in Natal at the time! Another drubbing!
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 16:15
#77
20 Dec 2018, 16:15#77

Mozart

There is a variety of reasons I would not be watching games and as far as I can remember in June 2009 I was in Johannesburg for a conference where I had to deliver a lecture after which I went to Sun City for the weekend.   In any event I did not at the time watched all games available like I do now.   I clearly referred to matches I have in fact seen - unlike you who comment on matches you have never seen.

Be it as it may - you started an absolute BS thread and got into a total disaster for yourself because the thread was so absurd only a fool will start something totally fictional and not based on all factors relating to performance of teams.   

I would never dream up such BS - but then you specialize in it.       

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
20 Dec 2018, 16:37
#78
20 Dec 2018, 16:37#78
“Mozart There is a variety of reasons I would not be watching games and as far as I can remember in June 2009 I was in Johannesburg for a conference where I had to deliver a lecture after which I went to Sun City for the weekend. In any event I did not at the time watched all games available like I do now. ” Hahahahaha. Ou Sopdrol has found his shovel again.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
20 Dec 2018, 18:38
#79
20 Dec 2018, 18:38#79

Listen - Mozart started a complete load of BS in this thread on site and I made the mistake of reacting to it.   Then the fellow  arse creep Ceradunce and the total brainless  Trooth Fairy jumped in because Archangels (according to them) Morne and Meyer is being criticized - they used total BS statements as well.   This is getting to a level of idiocy where it is clear that nothing would help Mozart and his fellow BStrs out of the hole they dug for themselves.   So keep being swamped in the pigsty shit you are in.   

   

CE
CeradynePro9,374 posts
20 Dec 2018, 19:08
#80
20 Dec 2018, 19:08#80
“Posted by: clevermike (33664 posts) Dec 20, 2018, 18:38 Listen - Mozart started a complete load of BS in this thread on site and I made the mistake of reacting to it. ” ......because you just cannot help yourself. How many more needs to tell you that you are such an easy target.
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