With the Springboks all but assured of finishing first in their World Cup pool, they look set to be slight favourites for a quarter-final match-up against any of England, Wales, or Australia.
In a semi-final against the All Blacks, coach Heyneke Meyer is seen as Steve Hansen’s inferior, squandering prodigious talent and squeezing the expression out of lively youngsters, in favour of dour veterans.
(A massive surf versus turf wager also rides on this possible knockout test.)
Meyer has two more Tests, both against Argentina, to polish combinations and make the final cuts to his 31-man roster.
It is not clear whether Meyer will choose a 17-14 or 16-15 forward-to-back split, and in contrast to his potential SANZAR knockout opponents, Meyer seems to have more question marks about the last four or five players to be chosen.
Props
Jannie du Plessis is injured, but not seriously enough to miss the Cup. He staked a strong claim on the no. 3 jersey after many (myself at the front of the line) said he was finished. It just shows you what a veteran can do if he feels the end is near.
The drama at tighthead is which Stormer will make it: the big powerhouse Frans Malherbe, or the blonde stormtrooper Vincent Koch? Malherbe has shown more, for longer. Koch is a strong ballcarrier, but has had a few binding issues, and was whistled up much more than Malherbe in Super Rugby, with fewer minutes.
On the other side of the scrum, the unfortunate timing of Steven Kitshoff’s knee injury has robbed him of carrying on his superb Super Rugby form into the Rugby Championship. He may get a shot against Argentina (who better to test him?) in a last-gasp bid to take Trevor Nyakane’s backup loosehead jersey. I’d go red.
Hooker
A third hooker is seen as mandatory, even though I am not sure we’ve ever had to use one. Meyer will probably choose between Scarra Ntubeni, Schalk Brits or Craig Burden, with Ntubeni helping Meyer with his government relations, but Brits much more comfortable in a big match at Twickenham.
Second row
There appears to be hope for the young and freakishly athletic Pieter-Steph du Toit as he returns from long-term injuries this week, but he will battle with Flip van der Merwe for the last lock jersey.
Flip is off the pace, and I’d go with the prodigy. We’ve wanted Eben Etzebeth and du Toit to form the new, faster, stronger combination for some time. That time is now.
Loose forwards
Suspense surrounds the fit of Heinrich Brüssow in Meyer’s gameplan, the timing of the recovery of Duane Vermeulen from neck surgery, and the luck of the Lions super-captain and leading Super Rugby tackler, Warren Whiteley.
The word is Vermeulen is on track, and he’s always returned from rehabilitation in perfect condition. So, it looks like the luck favours Schalk Burger, a faithful servant of South African rugby, because as we just learnt, he can cover No. 8 very well, but still fit into the other two positions seamlessly. Whiteley might be the unlucky one.
Halfbacks
Fourie du Preez and Ruan Pienaar still own the scrumhalf position, and I just don’t know whether Meyer will persist with Cobus Reinach, the raw and mercurial speedster. Rudy Paige ticks Meyer’s very long and idiosyncratic list of no. 9 boxes better than Reinach or Faf de Klerk.
Meyer has a clear pecking order at flyhalf: 1. Handré Pollard, 2. Pat Lambie and 3. Morné Steyn.
Midfield
Jean de Villiers will get every chance in the next two Tests to show he is back to speed. The juggling act will continue, but surely Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel have played their way into the squad.
Frans Steyn just endured an unimaginable family tragedy; I’m not sure how it will affect him, but he and Kriel are great World Cup fits, because between them they cover all positions except for scrumhalf.
Back three
Unfortunately, Meyer doesn’t have much choice here. We’ll see the old firm of Bryan Habana, Willie le Roux, and JP Pietersen, but maybe late in games Lambie and Kriel will slot in, allowing le Roux to play first receiver or wing.
Possible squad of 31
Beast Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Francois Louw, Willem Alberts, Duane Vermeulen, Fourie du Preez, Handre Pollard, Bryan Habana, Damian de Allende, Jean de Villiers, JP Pietersen, Willie le Roux, Adriaan Strauss, Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Lood de Jager, Schalk Burger, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Jesse Kriel, Trevor Nyakane, Schalk Brits, Victor Matfield, Marcell Coetzee, Johan Goosen, Lwazi Mvovo, Frans Steyn, Cobus Reinach.
