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The winning formula

Started by oimatey23 REPLIES540 VIEWS· 16 Apr 2015, 20:08
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OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
16 Apr 2015, 20:08
#1
16 Apr 2015, 20:08#1
Excellent article below, specifically about the Stormers but just as applicable to every SA team. There is a game plan we are good at, that we have the personnel and talent to execute very well, to be the best in the world at. We should not be shamed or goaded into something else through condescending remarks about attractive, positive rugby. Ask the Cheetahs, Gary Gold and Coetzee the past couple years about what the results are. Nothing but praise from the public and the media about the Cheetah, Bulls, Stormers and Lions wins the past week but they were all built on the foundation of defense and the large majority of the tries came from turnover ball and counterattack.

"Why? That is the question that Stormers fans should desperately want to have answered following an outstanding win against the Waratahs on Saturday.

After starting their campaign with four wins in five games, why did the Stormers deviate from the plan?

Why did they revert to an attacking game that, in 2013 and 2014, downgraded perennial contenders to also-rans?

And why did nobody at Stormers headquarters foresee that such a plan would expose an undersized backline?

Only Allister Coetzee and his management team can answer these questions, but structured attack played such a small part in the Stormers’ 32-18 win against the defending champions that the coach didn’t even mention it in the aftermath.

“Our kicking game was excellent, we had a huge defensive performance on our side and, on top of that, we capitalised by utilising turnover possession and scoring four tries,” said Coetzee.

Three of those four tries came from defence, with Waratahs errors sparking two tries for Damian de Allende and one for fullback Cheslin Kolbe. Winger Kobus van Wyk’s length-of-the-field score was the result of a kicking play launched from a set piece in the Stormers 22.

“We had our balance spot on in the way we want to play, and I said last week that we were heading in the right direction,” added Coetzee.

In reality, the Stormers took a three-week detour that cost them losses against the Highlanders and the Hurricanes.

In those two matches, Coetzee’s team averaged 13 kicks, 78 tackles, 158 runs and 20 offloads per game as they attempted to shoot down physically bigger Kiwi opponents with an attacking game writing cheques that their diminutive backs couldn’t cash. In the first five games, the fast-starters in the SA Conference had averaged 24 kicks, 92 runs, 88 tackles and six offloads per game.

The Stormers’ first win in Sydney since 2007 was set up by a stats-line that included 24 kicks, a season-low 69 runs, 126 tackles (second-highest total of the season) and six offloads.

That means that they almost doubled their kicks, cut their running game in half, and reduced their offloads by two thirds... and won.

The tactical shift brought the mini-backs into play, with a turnover allowing Kolbe to leverage his superior acceleration and top speed to burst away from a chugging Taqele Naiyaravoro, as opposed to running in an attack on the giant Fijian winger who would have had a 55kg weight advantage in contact.

“We had it spot on in terms of tactics,” Coetzee said “We put them under pressure and forced them into mistakes – our plan was right. We’re learning lessons” the Stormers coach said repeatedly during the team’s recent three-game slump. But how does Coetzee justify having to re-learn the consequences of an attacking game that subjected Cape rugby fans to successive failed campaigns in 2013 and 2014?

Clearly the key points from those diabolical campaigns were not learnt – if they were, Coetzee would never have green-lighted the high-octane blueprints prior to the losses against the Highlanders and Hurricanes.

And have those lessons now really been learnt, or should Stormers fans expect their team to again spurn kicking and defence against the Western Force in Perth this week? The Stormers will go into that match without their first-choice back row, with captain Duane Vermeulen on Springbok rest duty, enforcer Rynhardt Elstadt out with a season-ending broken leg and blindside flanker Michael Rhodes expected to be on his way home with what Coetzee hinted was a tour-ending hamstring injury.

The Cheetahs snapped a five-game losing streak when they beat the Force in Perth on Saturday. It’s no coincidence that the free-flowing Free Staters’ first taste of victory in almost two months came after a performance which featured less than 75 runs, nearly 30 kicks out of hand, almost 175 tackles and just five offloads.

As far as the professional game goes, it’s Rugby 101. Let’s hope the Stormers have learnt that lesson for the last time."

Cape Argus


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Apr 2015, 21:31
#2
16 Apr 2015, 21:31#2

The very best article on Bok rugby I have ever read. We are what we are....fast elusive chaps like Kolbe are a huge asset if used properly......attack from turnover ball is where we excel.

 

Thanks Matey at last we rise above "me too" strategies most suited for Pacific Island backs. 

MO
moolaaPro2,380 posts
16 Apr 2015, 21:38
#3
16 Apr 2015, 21:38#3
 Those tactics haven't worked for the Boks vs the ABs though since 2009 so I'm very happy if the SA S15 sides adopt them!
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Apr 2015, 21:57
#4
16 Apr 2015, 21:57#4
The fact that a strategy hasn't worked, doesnt mean it isn't the best option available Moolah. And I think it's fair to say at crucial  times we have veered away from the approach eg in the Ellis Park test in 2013.
The All Blacks are a daunting prospect. But I'm convinced if we execute this kind of structured game plan well, we will win our fair share.  
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
16 Apr 2015, 22:05
#5
16 Apr 2015, 22:05#5
 This guy has no clue and neither does Coetzee.So much nonsense to unravel and I am busy!
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,285 posts
16 Apr 2015, 22:10
#6
16 Apr 2015, 22:10#6
What happens if a South African team follows this plan, but their forwards do not get more than 50% possession. It is Bulls Rugby than depends on the forwards dominating.
When the forwards only win 30% possesion, what then.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Apr 2015, 22:11
#7
16 Apr 2015, 22:11#7
 HasBeen your idea of kragdadigheid went out in the sixties. The porky backs you admire like Taute will be cut to shreds. We need a powerful pack, strength in the inside channels and pace outside. We need to implement Coetzee's Tahs game plan.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Apr 2015, 22:22
#8
16 Apr 2015, 22:22#8
If our forwards win 30 per cent of the ball, Napoleon could be our strategic planner and we will lose.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
16 Apr 2015, 23:40
#9
16 Apr 2015, 23:40#9
 Mozart
Lets go back to a few tests against the All Blacks and other teams.   In 2012 and 2013 we had 60% of the ball possession in tests and the backline destroyed that advantage by kicking away balls aimlessly and inaccurately - handing possession straight over to the opposition and allowing them to run at your defenses.   Last year was a struggle - we lost our Tight 5 cohesion and we struggled in most tests.
What do you want the backline players to do with balls won by the forwards?  Kick it away or crashball with it?  Since there are no other thing ever written about usage of the ball won by the forwards.   How many turnover balls are there in a test match?  Very few and in the past our flyhalfs kicked that away as well.     
This absolute planless idea about the backline usage is a hopeless situation.  And to constantly refer to our strength being our forwards and then say that the role of a flyhalf is 90% kicking is laughable.    
By the way - the bloke who wrote the article got it completely wrong.   A person has to understand what happened in the games the Stormers lost and look at what caused the losses.   in all the cases the Stormers lost because of aimless kicking and allowing the opposition to run at the Stormers and their defense by mostly the midgets failed them badly.   That was the case in the Chiefs and the Highlanders games.   The Hurricanes loss was engineered by the referee.   The situation changed after the two losses against the Chiefs and the Highlanders inasmuch as the kicks were less and more accurate.         
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
16 Apr 2015, 23:58
#10
16 Apr 2015, 23:58#10
You completely miss the fine points and give the interpretations you want. But set that aside. So your strategy is we play exactly like the All Blacks who have  superior players in five of the seven backline positions.....know those tactics better....generally have greater forward mobility and  have an advantage in ball handling. 
That's great, do exactly the same thing as your opponents who are better than you at doing those things.....hahaha we have a strategy winner!
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,285 posts
17 Apr 2015, 03:00
#11
17 Apr 2015, 03:00#11
The All Blacks could put Scotland and Italy away with only 25% possession. The back-line from these countries are not effective. 
Sometimes the Boks struggle against these minnows because they match our forwards.
The SA SuperXV team are too dependent on the maul to score tries. Most of the backlines have some good runners, but the handling skills is holding them back.
When our forwards are dominatng matches, we should be putting away teams with at least 4 tries. 
It is only the Bulls at Loftus that really put teams away , scoring 50 points plus.
Their is no mention of Stormers performance the previos week against the Canes where the forwards gave ample possesion to win, but the Stormers backline lost.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Apr 2015, 06:27
#12
17 Apr 2015, 06:27#12
Mozart
This is BS of the first order.  I ask a serious question and that is what is to happen to the balls won by the forwards?   And back came the response : "So your strategy is we play exactly like the All Blacks who have  superior players in five of the seven backline positions.....know those tactics better....generally have greater forward mobility and  have an advantage in ball handling."
I did not pronounce on any strategy - I want to know a straightforward and clear answer as to what is to happen to the balls.   That is normally where the theory about the comments as to "play to your strength" is totally quiet about.   When the story is challenged and asked what it means back comes the answer to the tune of "play exactly like the All Blacks".
What I am against is the kicking strategy so often being the integral component of the Springbok backline play.   Problem is that strategy is undermined by the fact that an overwhelming percentage of the kicks end up as being aimless and poorly directed.    If the kicks are strategic and accurate then I have no problem with the so-called "kicking strategy", but the problem came in when it was ruled that balls may not be kicked directly into touch if the play is outsider of the 22 and then passed back to the kicker or the kicker is outside of his teams 22 at the stage when he kicked the ball.   In view of the fact that kicks of Springbok players have in the past been notoriously inaccurate - it is only a means of handover of ball possession to the opposition.
Your second comment is also interesting :  "generally have greater forward mobility and  have an advantage in ball handling."   This aspect has a direct impact on the issue of ball protection and recovery as well as the creation of turnovers.   If you play the slow lumbering loose forwards they will not get to breakdown points to protect the ball and get the turnovers so integral to the turnover strategy so often mentioned by you and like-minded people.   That is also  strange - since the issue is that we are the only country where we believe a player like Alberts are of value to the team.   Lets face facts - the modern game requires a greater degree of mobility from all players - bar perhaps the props and to a lesser extent the locks than was the case in the past.  Coupled to that thee forwards must have ball skills and be able to pass and catch the balls efficiently.  We have way too many "lumbering elephants" amongst our forwards and especially our loosies.   Any team can do with one relatively slow loosie - but when all three are slow, you are bound to be on the losing end.
No team plays according to the  "play exactly like the All Blacks" theory.   The A ll Blacks kick the balls many times  - but they have a number of advantages.   They do not kick away every ball they  get - they vary their ball usage strategy.  They kick strategically and with objectives in mind and their kicks are accurate and remarkably effective.   However, in the main they use the ball on a varied basis and their backlines are efficient in ball usage through advanced ball handling skills and usage of running lines.  Their players are not necessarily faster in speed than the opposition players - fact is that with rare exceptions they are not really speed merchants at all.  What is clear is that they will never play unthinking players like Morne and Francois Steyn  in their backlines
So what is the answer to my critical question:   What do you want the backline players to do with balls won by the forwards?     Once there is a clear answer to that question a logical discussion could follow.   Until then the theory on your and like-minded peoples part is totally unclear and can only result in generalized statements like you made in this case.   
        
SA
Saffolk Captain30,741 posts
17 Apr 2015, 11:49
#13
17 Apr 2015, 11:49#13
Good luck with that strategy against the AB's......yeah lets play Kolbe and co against them  
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
17 Apr 2015, 12:05
#14
17 Apr 2015, 12:05#14
 Kolbe for Boks sheer madness.
Given the correct selections forward dominance is a given.
We have also potentially a very good backline if it is properly selected.
Players like Faf De Klerk and Reinach are better than what NZ has. Pollard is better than anything Nz has. Ditto Allende. Kriel I believe wouldd be better than old conrad at 13. Habana is still as good as any wing nz has and Willie is better than any nz fullback.The problem is the selections are poor and the collective effort doesnt do justice to the talent available. The vodocom quota coach Loubscher is way out of his depth.
We need to play a balanced game where we attack with skill and defend properly. Its not either or at the top eschelons of world rugby. You cant only defend and we dont want to play silly net ball rugby. You MUSt kick well tactically. All these ingredients are necessary.

BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
17 Apr 2015, 12:15
#15
17 Apr 2015, 12:15#15
The Stormers win on the basis of their power pack. How awesome was the pack when Rhodes, Vermulen and Elstadt we playing loosie!!However if you play wee kolisi and carr along with wee scurra and then also pick Carrisa (Not too bad but not our best) you have thrown away the forward dominance.Once you throw away forward dominance the micro light backline is really put to the sword.The failure to retain Van der Heever and now also not playing Howard and the other bigger backs I mentioned in order to ensure wee Leyyds, De Jongh and Kolbe continueis yet another major blunder by Coetzee.
I can assure you that by playing Kolisi, Carr and Scurra (Carrisa to an extent) and playing this midget backline and wins will become very difficult and unlikley against top Super 15 sides.Obviously a good tactical game the boot is also necessary. 

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Apr 2015, 15:07
#16
17 Apr 2015, 15:07#16
 Beeno
This winning formula that raises its head from time to time and is often enough raised by especially Mozart - is as clear as mud to me.   From what the latter has written it entails -
*   defense by all players - no problem with that;*   kicking of as much as 90% of the balls by the halfbacks; *   breakdown ball protection and recovery with special reference to turnovers in possession, but our player selection does not really aim at that.
When asked what the role of the backline outside of  the halfbacks is in all this - the answer is that they must exploit turnover possession - but no response on what should happen in standard backline play situations.   Turnovers are few and far between and to depend on those only - would certainly not result in winning of games, unless the players lose their marbles and knock balls on - like happened twice in the case of the Waratahs.   In any event that would not have been enough to win the game for the Stormers. 
I love the theorizing and making of generalized statements, but the absence of constructive comments is a major problem with the theories expressed,            
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Apr 2015, 16:01
#17
17 Apr 2015, 16:01#17
Two best Bok wings against  the All Blacks? Breyton Paulse, the man who neutralized Jonah Lomu.....and Habana.  That's not theory.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
17 Apr 2015, 17:03
#18
17 Apr 2015, 17:03#18
 Mozart
Don't be bloody stupid.  As far as I could remember Small faced Lomu not Paulse.  Both Habana and Paulse were ball sense players - something which De Jongh and Leyds are not.   In this case it is like comparing race horses capable of winning the July - with mules. 
Kolbe has ball sense - but he has been bumped out of the way by too many big players.
When are you going to answer my question about what backline players is to do with balls won by the forwards in terms of the winning formula that you propagate ?  
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
17 Apr 2015, 23:55
#19
17 Apr 2015, 23:55#19
Don't you be a bloody stupid big mouth. Paulse played against Lomu 6 times in tests....Small faced him twice, including the RWC final where he was helped out by Joost and Mulder.
Paulse by contrast found ways to cut Lomu off from the ball and  scored a fine try against him in the RWC 3rd place match in 99. Paulse  and Lomu were regular protagonists from 99 to 2002, but Lomu never scored against him.
Man you are thick and unacceptably crude.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
18 Apr 2015, 05:31
#20
18 Apr 2015, 05:31#20
 Mozart
This is not about 1995 - it is about the so-called "Winning Formula".  What a 1995 wing had to do with the present "Winning Formula" is a mystery to me. 
The standard Mozart formula is to bring in totally inappropriate info when asked to provide info on present scenarios and here the standard Mozart process is in full swing. 
The answer everyone is looking for in respect of the present discussions  is the following:-
"What do you want the backline players to do with balls won by the forwards?"
Should be an easy answer and would clarify the winning formula issue for the enlightenment of all of us.       
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
18 Apr 2015, 05:51
#21
18 Apr 2015, 05:51#21
"As far as I could remember Small faced Lomu not Paulse".....wrong moron. Your usual MO .....belligerent but ignorant statement, followed by an attempt to slime off the topic.
You are a constant source of amusement Moronic.
DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
18 Apr 2015, 07:14
#22
18 Apr 2015, 07:14#22

Why do we need to play like the Kiwis or the Wallabies? The fact of the matter is that we can't as the mould for their rugby is set at a very early age whereas our isn't. Polynesian players or players of Polynesian descent are athletic and have an appetite to run the ball......their style of play has been cut to the material in hand.....starting at a very early age. 

But it's not like we don't have a need to attack and score tries, fact is we don't have to play like them to score tries.

Super 15 and the RC championship is totally different to what is needed in style of play from upwards of the quarterfinal of the RWC.

In Super15 and  the RC  bonus points are awarded for scoring tries and for that reason the running game is a necessity making the competition more suited to Oz and Kiwi teams whereas in the WC the pressures are quite different....there are no bonus points, there is no second chance, lose and you go home.


There is not a lot wrong with Bok rugby, take them on at their own game and we would come off second best, what we need is to get our set play right, improve our defence, attack the breakdown and finally to have attacking potency when the opportunities presents itself.


We would never be the most attractive rugby team to watch but we'd win more WC's than Oz and NZ. On the flip side I'd expect them to win more S15's and RC than SAFFA teams as is the case at this point in time.

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
18 Apr 2015, 16:50
#23
18 Apr 2015, 16:50#23
 It's all about ballance and playing what's in front of you. Sounds simple, but only a very few teams manage this. Us fans should forget about running rugga, the expansive game, attractive rugby, etc. It's like evolution and the survival of the fittest.  The strong shall live and nobody remembers the guy that came second. Play to win at all cost AND if the plan does not work, change it! 
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
18 Apr 2015, 20:35
#24
18 Apr 2015, 20:35#24
Mozart if there is an amusing character on this site it is you.   The Paulse and Habana story had nothing to do with the topic under discussion.  Mind you the match I clearly remember was the WC final in 1995 - where Small played opposite Lomu - not Paulse.  
However, that topic was your usual style.   You go bananas about a topic and when an easy question is asked that would clarify the issue that you were writing endlessly about - and it will expose you ignorance - you refrain from answering the question.  You then introduce a topic having nothing to do with the topic under discussion - as as to endeavour foolishly to get away from having to answer the question asked.
So enlighten us - answer the question:  
 What do you want the backline players to do with balls won by the forwards?   
— END OF THREAD —

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