Wales or Australia?

It seems everyone is more afraid of Australia than Walea, but I wonder if Australia might be a better match-up. In this instance, might the power of Lood be a key factor? If you watch Australia you'll note how they do so much of their damage in the middle of the field. The Boks currently are controlling the middle very strongly and forcing teams to go wide, where we have our more experienced wings and touchline to cut them down. I don't think Australia can match that power play, but Wales most certainly can. We beat Australia for pace as well. As we saw against England, Australia can be opened up on defence, particularly down the middle. England lacked the speed and skills to take advantage of this and suffered costly turnovers. I think the Boks are far more dangerous. Wales by contrast are more aggressive and come up fast, and invite you to kick over that line to their 15. I think that somewhat exposes our ability to create space and our inferior tactical kicking game, unless we field Morné.  Any thoughts?

 Aussie opened up the defense. because England structures were poor. Againgst teams like NZ and SA, the space won't be as wide. Morne has no kicking game. But if you want to lose in the QF start Morne .

Our QF opponents will be the defeated fellas, heads hanging low, player resources stretched & with questionable backup available ( although that could apply to both Wales & Oz )  ........ I'll choose the Welsh, Australia have more gamebreakers & they're the fitter of the two . Wales have probably won their share of epic encounters at this RWC . Two more smashing defeats & they can retreat to the Valleys & write poems of their glorious epic victory at Twickers .

A lot of people are saying they'd rather see the Boks play Australia than Wales, and Fox you make some valid points, but for me it comes down to the following. Wales are suffering badly with injuries, and no matter how you look at it, Wales simply cannot field their best team. I'd rather face a very depleted Welsh team, that is having its depth tested to breaking point, than an Aussie team that is brimming with confidence and playing the best rugby in the tournament so far! 
That said, if we want to be deserved world champions, we should be able to beat any team!

 Ithink that we have a problem with selections.  we played Wales in three tests in 2014 and th evdece thus far is that in all three games we had serious problems in the Springboks Tight 5 - so lets evaluate the situation from that perspective:-
Wales - June First test

The Tight 5 consisted of -
1.   Gurthro Sttenkamp2    Bismarck du Plessis3    Jannie du Plessis4    Bakkies Botha5    Victor Matfield
16   Schalk Brits17   Tendai Mtawarira18   Coenie Oosthuizen19   Lood de Jager
The match result was distorted by a massive input by Willie le Roux and 4 tries scored in the first half.   But the question is really what happened in the second half, when Wales realized that they need to keep the ball away from Le Roux and played a much Tighter game.  So how did the Tight 5 perform?   On the whole the Tight 5 ws not really competitive.  Our scrumming was poor and between Bismarck and Jannie we gave away 4 penalties.   Bakkies was injured just before half-time and replaced by De Jager, who put in a much better performance than Botha did.  Gurthro Steenkamp was poor in scrumming and Jannie on retreat and we were not really up to standard in mauls and scrumming.  On the average one could say that the Springboks Tight 5 was bog ordinary with question marks in evidence.
Second June Test  
Our Tight 5 consisted of :-
1.  Tendai Mtawarira2   Bismarck du Plessis3   Jannie du Plessis4   Flip van der Merwe5   Victor Matfield
16   Schalk Brits17   Gurthro Steenkamp18   Coenie Oosthuizen19   Lood de Jager
This test the Welsh were very careful - they succeeded in cutting out Le Roux out of the game and our backline was in the neutralized,  However, we won the test by 1 point - really a miracle outcome because we were consistently trailing in the scoring until virtually the last minutes of the game.  The main reason was because our Tight 5 collapsed in a heap.  Our scrumming was a disaster - with the props, hooker and locks giving away 11 penalties by themselves and Flippie getting yellow-carded as well.  The scrumming was a mess - in constant retreat - and so was our mauling.  Matfield fell flat on his face in ball carries and his penalty (converted) when eh tried to carry a ball in traffic went straight down when tackled and hung onto the ball.  he also conceded a ball possession loss as the result of another carry attempt.
The EOYT
The Tight 5 consisted of:-
1.  Tendai Mtawarira2   Bismarck du Plessis3   Coenie Oosthuizen4   Eben Etzebeth5   Victor Matfield
16   Adriaan Strauss17   Trevor Nyakane18   Julian Esterhuizen19   Lood de Jager
Much has been written about that game - and all kinds of excuses were goven for the first test loss to Wales in years.   The problem was often enough laid at the door of the backline players - but the real shocker was again our Tight 5.  This time the penalty count was down to 6 penalties - but there was no improvement in the all-round performance of the Tight 5 players.  The scrumming was a mess again - M<atfield's line out takes dwindled to 4 and his ball carries was dismal - with 2 possession losses in attempted ball carries - he was comprehensively outplayed by Jones.  The backline got very poor balls from the forwards - for instance a scrum 5 meters out - where the forwards were in full retreat - the result being a possession turnover.  
The June test against Japan was a replica of what happened in the Japanese test this year.  All of Jannie du Plessis, Victor Matfield, Eben Etzebeth  and Tendai Mtawarira was playing like they were in a trance - it was one of the extremely rare tests where the lethargy of the other players rubbed off on him.   
Major Requirement to Win in the Quarterfinal 
So what is the  answer?   The answer is we must have competency or ultimately even supremacy in the Tight 5.   If we cannot manage that the game will be lost.
If we even hope to gain that supremacy - we need to look carefully at the following players who showed serious deficiencies in the three tests discussed:-
Jannie du PlessisVictor Matfield
The Tight 5 should consist of the following players:-
1   Tendai Mtawarire  * 2   Bismarck du Plessis3   Frans Malherbe4   Eben Etzebeth5   Lood de Jager
16  Adriaan Strauss17  Trevor Nyakane18  Coenie Oosthuizne19  Piter-Steph du Toit
*   Mtawarira was poor in the Eorlld Cup thus far this year.   Pity we have no option because he was under par consistently in the squad 

The problem is Matfield's role in the Tight 5 is a serious negative - whether he starts or is on the bench and I would prefer Du Toit who stood his ground in scrums and mauls yesterday.   Jannie is a serious liability - especially from a scrumming and disciplinary perspective.
AND FOR HEAVENS SAKE - MORNE STEYN MUST NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR THE TEAM FOR THE DAY.   UNDER PRESSURE WE WILL HAVE A REPEAT OF THE PERTH TEST  SCENARIO.
We can win - but it will depend on the team selection.     


         

 There is but no chance that Wales will beat Australia on Saturday and the above scenario as outlined by me is based on that premise. 

 So I think it well be SA v Wales QF. And I think France well beat Ireland now that Ireland have shown nothing of note this wc. SO NZ v Ireland QF.

Yes,Cant see Wales getting past OZ, but I have a feeling Ireland will get past France. QFOZ - SCTBoks - WelshFrance - ARGAB - Ire
SFAB - BoksOZ - ARG
Final.OZ vs Boks.

 MonsterBok I would take that scenario.

Oz comfortably  

I think New Zealand are ripe for the plucking. Just a matter of someone taking the opportunity. And I also don't see Wales beating Australia. But I can't decide which one would be better for us. Certainly I do not feel very confident in our centres to repel the charges of the big Welsh runners. I know Serf hasn't been perfect, but I hope he is at least on the bench. Morné and Serf must be on the bench or we could be in trouble! Serf is a very good reader of play on defence, and I think he will be more apt to run our system in place of Jean. Australia having that all out attack, targeting areas where we are strongest on the field? I feel more comfortable with that. And to have revenge for 2011 would be very well savored.
I wonder if Ireland could beat NZ? They have the ability, but as Wales seem to always play their worst against Australia, Ireland save their worst for NZ.