WEEKEND FIXTURES AND PREDICTIONS
HURRICANES v DHL STORMERS (Wellington, Friday 8.35am)
Allow me to admit I do have a funny feeling that the Stormers will win this game, but also allow me to admit that I wouldn’t have the guts to stake my house on it or tip them as the winner given that the Hurricanes pack has been really good recently. That means they should have enough ball to trouble a Stormers defensive system that looks less impregnable than it once was. Eight tries in the last two games against the Stormers by Kiwi teams does not make good reading for a team that used to pride itself on defence. For the Stormers to win, and keep the likes of Julian Savea quiet, they are going to have to emphatically win the forward battle and then cut down on the error rate from last week. Their field kicking game also needs to be more accurate than it has been. There’s a lot to work on, but still, there’s just a feeling, perhaps based on the theory that no team in Super Rugby just keeps on winning and the Hurricanes may be due for an off-night.
Prediction: Hurricanes to win.
REBELS v REDS (Melbourne, Friday 10.40am)
The Rebels have been better away from home this season than they’ve been in Melbourne, where they have yet to win, but the Reds surely classify as a walking bonus point for any home team at present. There is enough talent in the Reds team, it’s just that they don’t play as a team. It has been said often enough that the coach must be to blame and it’s hard to find any other plausible theory for the dramatic decline of a team that won the trophy less than four years ago.
Prediction: Rebels to win.
CHIEFS v BLUES (Hamilton, Saturday 8.35am)
The Blues have been almost as woeful as the Reds – in fact they’ve been worse if you look at log position – so you have to say the same as was said about the Rebels/Reds game, which is that it is hard to foresee an underdog victory. The Chiefs weren’t that great against the Cheetahs last week but they had just flown back from South Africa. They don’t have that debilitation this time, and they are playing against their near neighbours and therefore the team they most enjoy beating, something that goes back to when Waikato won the NPC for the first time under John Mitchell’s captaincy.
Prediction: Chiefs to win.
BRUMBIES v TOYOTA CHEETAHS (Canberra, Saturday 10.40am)
The Brumbies and the Hurricanes are the form teams in Super Rugby this year, and although the Brumbies have taken steps backwards against the Chiefs and Waratahs, those were away games. At home in Canberra they’ve looked nigh invincible, and this re-run of a 2013 play-off fixture should only go one way, which means a convincing win for the hosts. Having said that, the Cheetahs, although they have now lost Jean Cook to injury, look significantly stronger than they were against the Chiefs following the return of two rested Boks from last week, Willie le Roux and Coenie Oosthuizen, plus the reacquainting of Francois Venter and Johann Sadie in the midfield.
Prediction: Brumbies to win comfortably.
CELL C SHARKS v CRUSADERS (Durban, Saturday 3.00pm)
This is the moment of truth for the Sharks. If they win it confirms that their recent resurgence, which has seen them win three on the trot, is real. If they lose, it is back into the chasing pack in the South African conference and there is the real possibility of them going off the tracks as they prepare for important derby matches against the Lions and the Bulls. The Crusaders have made some changes, most notably the return of Matt Todd for Richie McCaw and Colin Slade coming in for Dan Carter, who has returned to New Zealand. A few years ago you’d have had your head read for saying so, but I’m not sure those changes weaken the Crusaders and the All Blacks, if they do persist with the veterans, could be heading into the same potential danger that the like-minded Springbok coach could be at the World Cup later this year. The Sharks have Pat Lambie back to lead the side and that is a big plus for them, as is the return of the inform Cobus Reinach at No 9. Marcell Coetzee will be involved in an absorbing contest at the breakdowns with Todd. This game will probably be close and the Sharks do boast a good record against the Crusaders at Kings Park, and indeed they beat them when down to 14 men in Christchurch last year. A lot of that has to do with the predictability of the Crusaders’ playing pattern. But after losing last week, the Crusaders will be up for this one, and must be considered to be slight favourites.
Prediction: Crusaders to win close game.
EMIRATES LIONS v VODACOM BULLS (Johannesburg, 5.05pm)
Victor Matfield and Jan Serfontein are out of the Bulls team to play this appetizing derby match, with Matfield possibly set to be missed by his team more than Serfontein will be if you look at how Serfontein’s replacement went last week. The Lions were brilliant overseas and should have their confidence significantly boosted. Home ground will be an advantage to them if there are still any people left in Johannesburg on the Easter Weekend and although the Bulls played outstandingly against the Crusaders, I make them underdogs for this trip up the N1 and M1 motorways.
Prediction: Lions to win.
