Sasu
I thought I warned you off the Reds strongly enough - but thanks for your comments. My feeling the past weekend was for the Sharks and the Crusaders to win - but I was hesitant on both sides to preedict a 12+ win in either game. The chances of a 12 plus win by the Sharks wer better than such a win by the Crusaders. However, this coming weekend it is more difficult - but lets try again and base the prediction on facts.
Lets start off with the prediction of the Cheifs-Crusaders game. I was not entirely convinced about the Crusaders win against the Bulls. The Bulls were despicably poor in their performance. You would have noticed from this forum how mad the members were with the Bulls and their penalty machine contribution. However, they only gave away one try - a very good one at that. They also scored two tries against the Crusaders - one rather problematic sign. One could say that the penalties resulted from illegal measures to prevnt further tries - but that is a guesstimate and may not be fact. So despite the 12 point win - I was left unsure about whether they will manage to beat the Chiefs. Second pointer is the fact that in the round-robin phase I believe the Chiefs played better at home against the Bulls than the Crusaders did last weekend. Third pointer is the issue of the two teams performance against the Hurricanes - the Chiefs were to my mind the better of the two in thoase two games. My gut feeling is that the game could go either way - but in this case I think the Chiefs will win.
Insofar as the game between the Stormers and the Sharks is concerned - I think the Stormers will win - despite the many positive pointers in the recent Sharks games. There are a number of pointers in the relevant regard that could impact on the result. Firstly there is the impact of the trip to Australia and back. In the second half or the Reds game the Sharks - they ran out of steam against the Reds. Whilst brilliant in the first half - they were under much more pressure in the second half although they defended brilliantly - and that I believe was the result of jet lag. It will be worse on Saturday.
The next issue that I believe played a role on Saturday was the missing personnael in the Sharks team for the coming weekend. Obviously they would not be able to play Francois Steyn in the semi - but the worrying factor is that it is unlikely that they would have Lambie, Jordaan and Du Toit available for the clash against the Stormers. I was very happy with the performance of Ludig at full back - but when Jordaan was replaced in the Reds game - the backline wheels of the Sharks came off. Typical was the falling over his own legs by Bosman when he received a pass with an open line in front of him. If Jordaan was on - it would have been a try under the posts for the Sharks. With both Jordaan and Steyn not available - it would be problematic for the Sharks in the center combination. The other player they missed badly was Du Toit. Although this guy is only 19 - he is two meters tall weighing 118 kgs - and he would have been a massive difference in the line outs in the Reds game. Also very fast for a lock - he played at flank in the Junior WC game and a very good defender. I rate both Jordaan and Du Toit very highly and think they are the Boks future stars. The one is only 19 and the other one 20. Both are at present struggling with injuries - Jordaan reportedly has a hammy problem and Du Toit an ankle problem. I do not think they will be ready to play this weekend - and assume they would be out.
On the other hand it is likely that the Stormers at last will be more or less up to full strength this weekend. The Stormers main problem this year was the absence for a large part of Super 15 competition of their loosies such as Burger and Vermeulen and they even had to import Sinclair to help out in the round-robin games. Burger to my mind is not going to play again - but I am a great believer in Elstadt and Kolisi is an excellent player. I believe Etzebeth and Vermeulen will play thsi weekend. I rate Elstadt - another 20 year old of the same size as Du Toit , very highly - the same as Etzebeth.
With the full Stormers team back at last - you must bear in mind that the Stormers only lost two games this Super 15 games this year despite continuous injuries to key players. Those were the games against the Crusaders - where they played a half-baked team - and the one against the Sharks. In the latter stages of the competition I think the Sharks was the top playing team in Super 15 - and that includes the Crusaders and the Chiefs. However, I do believe that the two trips during the past 14 days will impact negatively on them.
Under the cirumstances I predict Chiefs and Stormer victories in the semis.
Insofar as the final is concerned I think that in the case of either the Chiefs or the Crusaders playing against the Stormers - the Stormers will beat them at home with a full team available to them.
May not be popular with the rest of the public - and bearing in mind I am a Shark supporter - I am suggesting the following bet - but not with any 12+ bet difference. The Chiefs beating the Crusaders at Hamilton - the Stormers beating the Sharks and a final win for the Stormers. Add to that Lerena winning the jokey championship in SA and the odds could be generous. The Chiefs is 15/10, the Stormers is 5/10, and the Stormers in the final would be 7/10. Lerena winning the Championship jockey title is 8/10 That would give you odds of about 8/1. Incidentally if the Crusaders beat the Chiefs in the semi - the bookmakers will go senile and the favourites in the final would be the Crusaders if they have to play against the Stormers. They also gave the Reds a 5,5/10 chance to beat the Sharks - hence my senile comments.
Let me make another prediction. I am a very great admirer of Jordaan and Du Toit. Jordaan is to my mind a player much like Conrad Smith - he is very brainy - but he is much faster than Smith. Du Toit's grandfather was a Springbok prop - generally known as Piet Spiere (Muscles) - he outscrummed the All Blacks props completely - but was only 6'1" and weighed 96 kgs. As mentioned his grandson is 2 meters tall and weigh 118 kgs - really a big and very muscular guy. They are going to be in a future Springbok team and that would make life very difficult for opponents. So watch out for those two in future.
