Why the Springboks will lose the test on Saturday

Mozart

I do believe that Meyer has a different style of rugby in mind than the rugby played at present by most teams.  It harkens back to 2004-05 when speed was not an issue with most teams and heavy and slow forwards were the rule.   In his thinking he disregards the law changes - especially since 2008.  All of these are aimed at ball handling skills and more attractive rugby than was played in the past.

Rugby has changed since 2008 - even the NH countries play a different style of rugby from the style played prior to that date.   Strong forwards are still in evidence - but they are also emphasizing more mobility and ball handling skills amongst the forwards.

Is the Meyer approach really working?   In a way yes in some cases.   However, if we look at the EOYT last year - we basically struggled badly in all tests and the results could have gone either way.   Against the Scots this year in June it was much closer than it should have been.    We nearly got unstuck in the Pumas match this year as well.

There was a huge improvement in backline performances and the role of the backline in scoring of tries.   If we look at tries scored this year there were three marked changes in the pattern of tries scored compared to tries scored last year.   The three changes of importance are -

*   the change made insofar as Francois Steyn is concerned - he killed off most potential backline moves by lack of speed and ball sense; and

*   the selection of Willie le Roux - who scored tries himself - but had a major role in most backline tries as well; and

*  to a lesser extent the inclusion of Engelbrecht who has speed - but needs to be put in space by other players and can then finish off better than the case was previously.  

Is the trade-off between heavy and slow loosies with less skills as against more speedy and skilled players ultimately going to work out?  Meyer apparently thinks so - but there are issues he himself is not happy with and he and De Villiers mentioned poor ball handling skills after the test on Saturday as well.   All and sundry also mentioned the poor line out performances on Saturday as well.

It is a fact that our loosies play virtually no role in line out ball recovery and a very small role in breakdown ball recovery.    When they do it is often enough the case that they isolate themselves and that leads to frequent penalties like happened yesterday.

The issue here is - would it not be better to play more skilled loosies than our present heavies.   I believe it would be better - and that remains the issue where I think that speedier loosies with ball skills and ball sense would play a more dynamic role and will ensure that the dangerous backline would become even more dangerous than they are at present.   There can be no argument about the  skill set of our loosies.   Alberts' skill set is limited and poor,  Vermeulen's is slightly better and Louw is satisfactory.   None of the present loosies can really augment attacking play by being part of such play.   Can the skill sets of players like Alberts and Vermeulen be improved - I doubt it very much.   They get the ball move about two to three meters and crashball - that is about the extent of their role in attacking play.   Problem is - they also isolate themselves often enough - because they are not supported by their back row partners.

I believe that loosies with better skill sets and speed will improve the team performance as a whole and will make the Springboks without question the best team in world rugby.    As long as players like Alberts and Vermeulen is in the team - that would just not happen and we will keep on struggling against tams that we should beat comprehensively. 

Beeno

Problem is with Fourie he can play no role in line outs - where we need a player that can reasonably be a factor as well.   In a way Fourie is also limited - he has the speed and his ball recovery is good - but his tackling remains an issue as well.   In the whole of Super 15 last year he made 81 tackles - which average out at circa  5 tackles per game.   That really is not good enough.

The further problem with Fourie is ball protection when he should be helping to cover balls at breakdown situations - shielding the tackled player to place the ball for rapid recovery.  

All in all Fourie is a good player - but whether he should replace Louw remains a serious question.   I would rather like to see a player like Labuschagne who made 263 tackles, and took 43 line out balls in Super 15 this year than to see Fourie in the set-up.   My main problem remains Alberts - whose skill set is really limited and in many respects poor to be replaced than to see Louw replaced at this stage.

Yeah, yeah … we know … Meyer is a moron … he’s incompetent … doesn’t want to select your team … we have a very slow blindside flanker in Alberts … slower than any prop … we’re simply useless … Morne sucks … Kirchner is very poor … blah blah blah blah blah …

Same old story every week, Mike.

Bottom line is we would have been in with a shot had the contest not been spoiled … They may have beaten us but not with a four try bonus point … they may have lost to us … putting us ahead … we’ll never know.

The mere fact that they all worked so hard to take the contest away has now almost guaranteed them the Championship. It would take a monstrous effort to reverse the obvious out come.

Mike … how far are you into your forty day fast … ?? You must be near on completing it. Now it’s just a matter of dressing yourself in sackcloth and ash and spending the next few days in earnest prayer.

You’ve been praying for the Bokke’s demise for the last several months now. Maybe your hearts desire will be met.

Good luck with that!!!!!

 Ceradyne

Reasonable copmments this time.  Just a few remarks on what you said.

First of all there is not really that big a difference in the team sheets of last year in the Soweto game last year.  In the EOYT the absentees were in fact the injured players - like Bekker, and the props - where Meyer really made an ass of himself in selections.  Other than Bekker - Meyer is in the main persisting with the core forwards he had last year.   The core was the three loosies, Etzebeth, Jannie du Plessis and Strauss (with Kruger on the bench).   Since Steenkamp is still on the bench - the only real difference was with the props and in particular Van der Linde - in the absence of Mtawarire.   That does not represent all that big a change amongst the forwards.   In the backline there has been major changes.

You must be blind not to have seen the way Francois Steyn played at center last  year - he crashballed 80% of all the cases where he received the ball.   De Villiers was playing on his outside and his game suffered as a result.   When de Villiers moved to 12 last year - his game picked up significantly and he performed equally well at 12 as he is now.  The difference is that De Villiers now has players outside of him that can perform with decent balls and I have stated clearly who made a difference.

You make much of the penalty percentage issue - but for instance against NZ in the Auckland test - we played without one loosie for 50 minutes in that game - so it is really not a game to comment on.  

Insofar as line out jumping is concerned - thus far the lions share of the balls in line outs were taken by Etzebeth - 32 out of the total of 48 takes by locks).   Of all the throw ins by SA sides and capturing of opposition throw ins - our locks took 48 line out balls and our loosies 7.   If you compare the similar figures for the All Blacks - their locks took 34 line out balls and their loosies 20.   In the tests thus far this year our loosies was really ineffective in line out ball recovery - while the AB loosies were much more effective.   Those are facts - not figments of my imagination or my opinion only as implied by you. 

I have given the stats on tackling as given by the updated ESPN process f as indicated and a return will not be necessary.  LOL

Excuse me Oom, but wasn't every South African pundit, yourself included, calling for Fransie at 12 last year? Everybody harked back to RWC07 where Fransie was a decent substitute Jean. Meyer was simply reflecting conventional wisdom. The lone contrary voice, and you can check with Dave on this, was yours truly. I warned that Fransie was simply not agile and quick thinking enough to be a creative link.....and that his tackling, while brutal, was not reliable. I cited the Mathew Tait break in RWC final.

Which is not to say I was right, perhaps the issue was just Steyn's weight problem and niggling injuries. Whatever, the fact that Meyer chose him at centre last year was a very understandable misstep. To his credit he moved Jean back to 12 and ignored the many, many calls to drop him. Without Jean we would have had no chance this year. Meyer gets no credit for many good decisions....Jean, Louw, bringing back du Preez, Morne, and on Saturday, even Kirchner, who had a good game.

Excuse me - Uncle Mozart

But if you read my posts - which Saffex nearly had constant seizures about - you would find that I was highly critical of Steyn after the first test against England and has been ever since.  Sorry - that was the case and you are falsely accusing me in this case.   However, I grant you - you were right in the Steyn case.   T alking about his tackling - it completely collapsed in the Brumbies game in Durban this year - he missed tackles like it was unbelievable.

I think the constant injuries to Steyn resulted from his overweight and questionable fitness 

Granted - Meyer made some good selections - but also some very bad ones and my problem with him is the latter - not the former.  

Sasue

Thanks for the warning.   I put up shields - the attacks are coming thick and fast.   I am the traitor now - and has been accused from all sides on that score.  

But no shield will help - they got machine guns and what not from Capone.s hidden arsenal.  I am ducking and diving to avoid the pot shots. but it is heavy and remorseless.

However, I am bearing up under the strain and secretly hope that I am wrong in my forecast. LOL

Mozart

Am in a good mood today - so I have lost a bit of my personal nastiness.   It reminds me of a little rhyme my mother used when we were lazy:-

"Maandag sal ek Maandag maak

Om Dinsdag aan die werk te raak

Woensdag is Klein Saterdag

Dondersdag is 'n harde dag

Frydag is dit Slamse Kerk

En wie de hel sal Saterdag werk

Sondag is dit onse kerk"

So watch out for what I come up with on Tuesday and Thursday.   The other days should be fine.   LOL 

"Advance Australia Fair has now been replaced by Jose can you see??

Hahahahahahahaha Cloudy oddly that's a new one for me, but I'm sure it's been around. But here's one for you:

"Springbok nation at thy feet....."

Sasue

Thanks for the warning.   I put up shields - the attacks are coming thick and fast.   I am the traitor now - and has been accused from all sides on that score.  

But no shield will help - they got machine guns and what not from Capone.s hidden arsenal.  I am ducking and diving to avoid the pot shots. but it is heavy and remorseless.

Cerdayne

Same to you - what about the line out stats and the non-performance of line out play by the loosies?   You said you would comment - but NOTHING??????????