Your Bok hopefuls

DA

Dit was ninja olie bra.

hahaha

Yes I know I’m a pretty awful person thinking Geraasmus sold Eben down the river….the latest example of how it’s all about him. But I accept, a real fan would simply have ignored that. Or more likely not even figured out that he did it,

Let’s get back to the thing you really love……analysis. Let’s set aside emotion and deal with hard cold facts.

So we already know the Bok for the whole RC were no different to the opposition in two important markers of back play, clean breaks and defenders beaten. They led 65 to 60 on clean breaks but trailed 142 to 144 on defenders beaten.

But the Boks were playing to a different game plan in NZ2 and Bargie1. In those games we attacked rather than the rope-a-dope style that has been our standard in all big games. Let’s look at those two styles separately.

In the attack oriented style we led in both categories ….22 clean breaks to 11 by opponents and 80 defenders beaten to 58.

Now in the remaining games playing Erasmus ball we trailed in both categories…43 clean breaks to our opponents 49…..62 defenders beaten to 86 times they beat our tackles.

And so out of the dark cesspool of rudimentary analysis we have a stunning finding. Season as a whole we were not statistically different to our opponents on backline markers. But in the games we played Erasmus ball we lagged them significantly.

This finding lines up with similar findings in the past WC. Rope-a-dope rugby, or Erasmus ball, puts us at a significant attacking disadvantage….which we have made up by scrumming and penalties. And in the WC by luck and because our opponents never made their kicks.

Am I particularly excited by that….nope….how about them apples?

LOL LOL LOL LOL Mozart - you cannot be serious about the shit you spout in your latest posting.

Can't see the wood for the trees...cliche but if it fits...

What a load of utter rubbish

Always encouraging when my fans love my work. Especially when they are left speechless.

Your work of fiction is just that

I have always preferred fiction….happy holidays Dave.

It's obvious as all hell that Sacha is the difference.

Let's remember what happened at Eden Park when Rassie picked what he thought his best backline and strategy were.

Granted, if that game went on for another 10 minutes, the Boks could have won.

In the next game, he thought the RC was gone and decided to pick a team that he could label as experimental...and they hammered the ABs.

Say what you like, but after all of last year's experimentation and all season leading up to Eden Park, Rassie had no idea what his best 23 was.

but...

We did hammer the ABs, embarrass the French and bully the Irish into submission in a way hat exposed them as not close to our level.

For me, those victories, all being away from home, against the odds and emphatic, is sweet as hell. Especially the French game...I don't even know how many re-runs I've watched at this point.

Manie was on field for a significant time during the hammering of the Allblacks....Sacha is the better player, but Manie chipped in his part...

Fixed my typos above. Dang, I really shouldn't make posts from my phone.

Yeah, Manie was there, he didn't do too badly this season but he's just a much worse version of Sacha really.

What I really don't like is being forced to shift Sacha around to accommodate Manie. The Stompies tried that and it sucked. Sacha is our 10...end of. Fine, Manie can be the understudy, but I don't want to see Sacha at 15 or 12 just to give Manie time on the park.

It’s not that Manie isn’t talented….it’s that he doesn’t process pressure well. And he is a bit robotic.. the long pass ….the open side cross kick. Also his judgement is poor, the whole Australian collapse started with a telegraphed Manie skip pass.

Plum your conclusion about NZ2 is the same as mine. ..

‘In the next game, he thought the RC was gone and decided to pick a team that he could label as experimental...and they hammered the ABs.‘

Proven by the teams he picked for the remaining critical games….Ireland and France…..those were his highest conviction teams. No Esterhozen, no Moodie, Willemse at fullback, Etzebeth at 4. And the game plan in those matches went right back to our WC box kick style.

What we have now is the high conviction style and the window dressing style, to be used when the opposition is poor or when, for whatever reason, we aren’t committed to a win.

We may run rampant against the ABs in South Africa next year if they don’t wise up and replace their coach. But I guarantee if we are in the finals of the new world championship it will be Erasmus ball not Brown ball.

Wrong on two fronts - it’s common knowledge that the players know well in advance about the composition of the side for each game of a tour

Rassie’s hand was forced with the injury to Fassi at 15, forcing him to resort back to Willemse at 15 and therefore not being able to select the 2nd NZ team combinations

A bit of reality for you. We thumped the Kiwi’s as Rassie had discovered his best side and we are that good when we are on song

That makes zero sense

"In the next game, he thought the RC was gone and decided to pick a team that he could label as experimental...and they hammered the ABs.‘

Why would they think the RC were gone.?..they lost by 1 score against the Allblacks ...at their fortress, in atrocious weather? The RC was basically level between the 4 teams...we were still very much in it...their is no way that team was selected as a Hail Mary...

Th ere is one thing I do nopt undersdand about site contributions. Letsget this straight - there is no siiggle game plan for any specific matchesm Game plans depend on the strength and weakneses of opposition teams,

It varies from match to match and accordin g to Lets take the two AB ests in 2025. The Eden Park game was playd in very poor waaather conditions that routinely differ from a match played under better conmditions. In any event wnce a game plan is devised and the players coached to implment the game plan - the actual execution depends on players not fouling up what they were taight to do. In the Eden Park match it was lost within the frosttwo minutes by poor execution by Willie - he did try and recover the ball - neither did he try to defend - so the AB's scored an easy try.

Noe Iwant to g back to the eriod 2012 to 2015 amd especiaaly the difference in th e kicking game and hw that fits into any game pan. Lets take the ecxamples of Carter and Morne. Carter kickballs more ofen than Morne - but there was one huge difference The AB;s game plan had one integral requirement and tha was kicking that was part of their attack plan. Carter was making strategic kicks forming part of the attack plan and alwats accurate - Morney's kicking ws poor and without any idwa using ta a stregic attack mechnaism. No bak to the resent - Sacha kick balls aimed at accuracy - which make a huge difference both in accuray and results, t ollowing comments were stupid:-

"Proven by the teams he picked for the remaining critical games….Ireland and France…..those were his highest conviction teams. No Esterhozen, no Moodie, Willemse at fullback, Etzebeth at 4. And the game plan in those matches went right back to our WC box kick style."

There can never be a repetitive game plan as implied and it shows real ignorance and prejudice,

Soe time there is a facor that makes it diifficult to fathom for most people, It happened in the semi-final a gainst Wales, and the outcome was a tight victyory, Eramus himself declared that he decided on a box kicking match - especially when confrotned by the journalists/ But wa it real or jut anopther strategy. In the final it was clear that Jones expected the same game plan used against Wales.- but what came out in the final was a completely different appoach and a more ccurate attack system.

,

"Why would they think the RC were gone.?..they lost by 1 score against the Allblacks ...at their fortress, in atrocious weather? The RC was basically level between the 4 teams...we were still very much in it...their is no way that team was selected as a Hail Mary"

He had just lost at Eden Park with what he believed to be his best side.

He then picked a "long-shot" team for Wellington.

You don't pick a long-shot side unless your back is really against the wall and you are out of options.

So, perhaps I shouldn't say that he thought the RC was gone. Rather that he was of the mindset that he had very narrow odds of pulling it off - i say this because the team he picked reflected that mindset. Had he felt they were simply unlucky at EP, he'd have run out with the same side, confident that they'd pull it off that time.

"their is no way that team was selected as a Hail Mary"

Oh really? Willemse starting at 12, which i cant recall him doing for the Boks before(perhaps my memory fails me) - partnering with Moodie - How may minutes do they have in that combination together?

Hooker got his first proper start - away from home and against the ABs in a crunch match.

Fassi had been in poor form and recently back from injury.

Sacha had been rotated in and out too and hadn't started against the Ozzies or in the EP game - his only starts were against shyte teams at the beginning of the season.

You can call that a settled backline if you like, but its pretty obvious that it wasn't.

There, I've explained why i thought that side was "experimental"...can you explain why you don't think it was?

If that makes zero sense then that makes you stupid

Plum

He had just lost at Eden Park with what he believed to be his best side.

Have y ou got any proof supporting the above statement or is it just your assumption.

The fact is tha Erasmus selecte a team which he probably thought could beat the EB's at Edn {ark and ist had serious flaws in the team - the most glaring was he included Willie to play at full back - despite average performances by him in the whole 2025, but he has an injury problem with Willemse and Fassie out. That was the position where the match was lost and as it turned out it was Willies's last test as a Spring bok. That se;ection was the main reason for the loss at Eden Park.

The other dud selection was Van Staaden in the starting line-u[, up.

Simple question….if Wellington was his best team, why did he not pick his best team for France/Ireland.

If Wellington was his preferred tactics, why did he not use those tactics against France/Ireland.

Geraasmus launched refgate after we lost the first test to the Lions. He hates the embarrassment of losing, which is actually a good attribute for a coach. What’s not so cool is his reactions. I think he didn’t want to lose a second test with his best team, which he probably saw as a strong possibility. Losing with an experimental team provided far more excuses.

Bet he was amazed at what actually happened, but he still didn’t really trust that formula so he went back to tried and true for France/Ireland.

That’s obvious - he lost Fassi at 15 so resorted back to Willemse at 15 as he had no player prepped to replace Fassi given that Willie is now history.

No doubt that had that not happened we would have seen far more of Fassi at 15, Moodie at 13 and Willemse at 12

Im a little surprised you did not work this out - pretty obvious really

"pretty obvious really"

Not to a rugby noob it isn't.

Spot on Saffex.

Hahaha….I make Jabba the Hutt appear

No doubt that had that not happened we would have seen far more of Fassi at 15, Moodie at 13 and Willemse at 12

Like we did twice against Australia and the first NZ test? Stop talking nonsense Dave. The truth is Geraasmus still prefers Dud Allende to any other 12, and he seems to prefer Willemse to Fassi. He has played Willemse at fullback 23 times and at 12 only once. Is that penetrating?

Fuck me Moz stop being stupid - he went with the tried and tested in DA and Jessie to start with, which makes perfect sense

He went with the bold selection of Willemse and Moodie at centre in the second AB test and will have concluded from their showings that as a combo they were the way forward

Rassie is more rugby astute than most, he knows DA and Jessie’s days are numbered and that the display by Willemse and Moodie far surpasses anything DA and Jessie have delivered in ages and their performances on the EOYT would have reinforced the fact they are lagging behind Willemse and Moodie

The injury to Fassi put pay to Willemse being used at 12 - if you don’t get that then give up

And he really needed Willemse at fullback even against Wales, when he could have been slipped into 12 where Geraasmus really thinks he is world class? Sorry it just doesn’t add up….I don’t think the esteemed coach is persuaded that Willemse is his kind of 12.

Hard to believe that Fassi and Willemse are the same age.

Willemse feels like an old hand at this point while Fassi is still trying to prove himself.

Fassi's injury in the 2024 season was a real killer for him. He was in ridiculous form.

Meanwhile Willemse just looks like he can do anything he wants to.

I very much doubt that Willemse is Rassie's long term 12. For me, Willemse's balance makes him perfect for 15 and as Shark pointed out numerous times this year, Fassi's positioning was questionable at times.

Andre at 12 and Willemse at 15 until after the WC. After that, I'd go with Hooker at 12 for the next decade.

Wow Moz your rugby knowledge is really piss poor - against Wales the Boks had 8 backs left in in the squad in total. He was hardly going to play anyone else at 15 now was he? If he had wanted to play Willemse at 12 he would have to have played Esterhuizen at fullback or on the wing

Try wake up, in particular to the fact that the only reason Willemse was not played at 12 was because of the injury to Fassi

Only an idiot after Willemse’s display at 12 against the AB’s would want to move him to 15 and start old man Esterhuizen at 12, the guy who will forever be the hybrid bench option moving forward and rightly so

The only option for the Boks moving forward is Fassi at 15 and Willemse at 12 - it’s non negotiable and one of the easiest Bok selections to make

Rassie knows it after seeing Willemse operate as he did against the AB’s

Only a rugby noob would be stupid enough to discard Fassi at 15, move Willemse to 15 and start a second choice in Esterhuizen at 12 - it’s never going to happen - there is no way in hell Esterhuizen aged 32 will be the new Bok 12. Willemse is not quick enough for 15 for a start and bullshit is Fassi still having to prove himself - he is past that hurdle. Shark with all due respect knows very little about rugby - out of position my arse

DA will be phased out in 26 with Willemse taking over - I’d put big money on that

The injury to Fassi occurred 2 months before the YE tour….there were no risk matches where a sub for Fassi, who hasn’t recovered form in any case, could have been found if Erasmus. was anxious to play him there again. But he has only played him there once….not quite sure how you are so certain Willemse at 12 is his plan.

As for Willemse not being fast enough for 15, check out the tackle Draad posted under best tackle of the year. He has been a success at 15 and is getting better at reading the field.

But let’s look on the bright side Dave, you finally see what the rest of us have been saying, Dud Allende is a liability. Wellington could never have happened with Dud at 12. Better late than never!

"As for Willemse not being fast enough for 15, check out the tackle Draad posted under best tackle of the year. He has been a success at 15 and is getting better at reading the field."

Willemse has always been quicker than Willie.

Fassi is 28 next year. Will he have fixed his positioning errors by then? Or do we wait until he's thirty and then say "Fassi has fixed his positioning and now we need to start looking for a replacement because he's the wrong side of 30"?

AE at 12 till after the WC, Hooker after that.

Willemse at 15 until he retires and Fassi on as wing cover.

Hooker was born to play 12 for the Boks. Size, pace, mindset, fight, defence...he's literally the perfect candidate.

I wonder when JJ will become a Bok regular? He's way better than Hooker after all. Not next year, because the Boks have all the backs they need and Seb, along with a few others, are probably ahead of him in the queue. So, maybe 2028...provided he improves a hell of a lot and finds another 10% of speed somewhere haha. Guy has zero chance of ever playing on the wing, or at FB...and there are a good few 13, and incumbents, that are way ahead of him. Looks like Dawie's JJ magic will require some actual magic to materialise.

That Tackle doesn't only prove Willemse's adequate speed, but also his excellent cover defense at Full Back.

Erasmus's positional selections to date indicate he prefers Willemse at Full Back.

He has tried him out at 12 with success, but if he is now convinced of Willemse as our future 12, we will probably see that shift in 2026.

JJ glides Plum dontcha get it?

I've not watched a many of the Sharks games this season, has JJ even been selected for them?

Geez Moz you really are acting dumb

Fassi has been Rassie’s succession plan at 15 post Willie with Willemse as an obvious option as well

His selection for that AB’s test clearly showed his future plans for the two with Fassi at 15 and Willemse at 12. Given Willemse’s display at 12 in that test, that would have further reinforced his conviction that Willemse is his future 12.

You say given Fassi’s injury, Rassie had time to find an alternate 15 - again your ignorance shines bright - who would that be? Gelant? Jordan Hendrikse? Quan Horn?

Unfortunately as Rassie knows as well as I do, there are no obvious options at 15 outside Fassi and Willemse so your call is utter ignorance

As for me not rating DA, what utter crap, he has been brilliant for the Boks and for most of his time there, been the best 12 in the game. My call for change is based on the fact that DA is now 34, get it?

Willemse is an exceptional talent and I do prefer the way he plays at 12 than the defaults like DA, AE, Aki’s etc

Willemse is all about the step and power, not pace, you never see him hit the line from deep with pace as he does not have that pace - we see that from Fassi all the time.

Willemse has the skills to play anywhere but that does not include pace. A great fullback needs skill and pace as part of his attraction is taking a line at pace and slicing through the defence. That tackle on Clarke from behind showed nothing as Clarke is not quick - his strength is physicality not pace.

Willie was never that either, his strength was vision and creating for others, not individual one on one success

AE will never be the incumbent Bok 12 and rightly so - he is 32 and has a new Bok role as a hybrid. Rassie is also not stupid enough to now elevate his 32 year old second choice 12 to succeed his not much older incumbent.

Its going to be Fassi at 15 and Willemse at 12

The 13 jersey is up for grabs - Moodie has the inside track and rightly so as he has shown his class and has caps under his belt, but he has stiff competition from Hooker, JJ and Henco v Wyk

Of these JJ walks it for me - that step, power and burst of pace off the mark, sets him apart - yes he fucking glides

Gliders, of course, being the slowest aircraft known.

‘Pace off the mark’….Dave trying to sidestep (does JJ have one) JJ’s lack of top end pace. The fastest man over two yards…haha!

Nothing wrong with JJ’s pace - he is quicker than Hooker or Henco v Wyk, I’m guessing he could be quicker than Moodie but not sure

But out and out pace is not what I’m after, it’s that explosive pace off the mark that sets him apart - it’s those monster thighs of his. With that pace off the mark he is able to exploit the smallest of gaps as we have seen on numerous occasions

I can’t wait for this kid to shut you ignorant fools up once and for all. Seeing Hooker at 13 for the Sharks of late has convinced me he that JJ is the far better option at 13. Hooker needs to stick to 12 where his size and strength is a bonus.

Dave, you told us that Hooker was a robotic player and JJ was so much better.

At some point, you need to be man enough to reevaluate a stance once time passes and more information is available.

There isn't a single person on this site that thinks Hooker is "robotic" or who would, as it stands, rather have JJ in the Boks than Hooker.

I told you in the 2024 season that JJ needs to do a lot more and you said I was wrong and that he was already good enough. Well, why was he nowhere near the Boks this year apart from an alignment camp where almost every player in SA was invited? Why was he often not even the first choice for the Sharks?

Meanwhile, Hooker has already done enough to cement his place with the Boks and would likely be picked for any of the top Test sides if he was eligible to play for them - Seriously, mistaking Hooker's ice cold calmness for roboticness is a proper low grade noob take.

...and for JJ to dislodge Moodie from the 13 jersey will take nothing short of a Herculean effort at this point.

As it stands, all I have seen from JJ is the odd half break. Nothing more.

Does anybody else here have some evidence or testimony to the contrary?