Bozo's timelines . . .

Ou Bob...forget about Trump for the moment...Iran murdered 30K of their own people just a few months ago...but Trump is BATSHIT... you're full of shit...

Never ever never, blame the batshit evil mad unqualified bastard.

It's mental isn't it. Zero introspection. It's never their teams fault, they never have to take responsibility when something goes predictably wrong.

,,

Zapiro, world-class

Never ever never, blame the batshit evil mad unqualified bastard.

It's mental isn't it. Zero introspection. It's never their teams fault, they never have to take responsibility when something goes predictably wrong

…………

And yet this morning we have this from the NewYork Times:

While Mr. Trump has repeatedly suggested that an agreement was near, the comments from the three Iranian officials were among the strongest signs since a cease-fire took effect early last month that the two sides may be moving closer to a deal.

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Many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip and it would be foolish to declare victory. But a bit more positive than those who not only have declared defeat but are ecstatic whenever they have another talking head who says so,

And yet this morning we have this from the NewYork Times:

While Mr. Trump has repeatedly suggested that an agreement was near, the comments from the three Iranian officials were among the strongest signs since a cease-fire took effect early last month that the two sides may be moving closer to a deal.

How does that address the point we were making?. Is it an admission of responsibility for the serious negatives this war with Iran has already produced?

Many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip and it would be foolish to declare victory. But a bit more positive than those who not only have declared defeat but are ecstatic whenever they have another talking head who says so,

After it became clear that Iranian would not be defeated militarily from just an air campaign alone and they enacted their blockade, some form of negotiated deal was always the most likely scenario. Obviously the content of such a deal will determine which side will be considered to have come out of this conflict stronger or the winner so to speak

From from the bits I've gathered about the latest negotiations, it looks like it contains the following.

An extension of the ceasefire by 60 days.

Hostilities will be paused on all fronts, including Israel and Lebanon.

An end of both blockades.

Iran will not charge ships any tolls.

Iran will clear the Straights of any mines it laid.

Some Iranian assets will be unfrozen.

Iran will be permitted to sell it's oil freely.

Iran will commit to ongoing negotiation's over the nuclear issue.

There appears to nothing in the deal so far about Iran's ballistic missiles or curbing it's support for it's regional allies.

So mostly it looks like returning to the pre-war status quo for the time but with Iran now able to sell it's oil freely.

What will happen next is that the US and Iran will come to some kind of an agreement where US forces withdraw from the region while Iran open up the Straits, with talks around Iran's enriched uranium being scheduled for some time in the future.

Trumpanzees will treat this news as some kind of victory and they will babble on about what a great deal Bozo has negotiated . . . even though what it will effectively mean is that Bozo spent $30bn, countless lives were lost, more billions of dollars worth of infrastructure was destroyed and the price of oil has precipitated a global recession . . . just to get back to where we started before Operation Epic Fail began.

Trumpanzees will probably demand Bozo is given the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the utterly pointless war that he started.

I consider it highly unlikely the American's will withdraw from the region but yeah it looks like the enriched uranium question is going be kicked down the road for a few months.

Obviously we don't know if a deal will be reached yet or what the final terms will be, but if the latest reports are to be believed it will at least stop the damage to the global economy from getting any worse, though I don't believe we have yet seen the full effect of what's already occurred yet either.

So far what are the known outcomes.

Iran's Airforce and Navy have been degraded. This must be caveated by the fact that they were never considered Iran's primary threat. And while Iran's dedicated military vessels have mostly been destroyed that hasn't removed it's capability of mining the Straights.

Iran's nuclear program has not been significantly set back any further from where it was before the war, with a breakout time of about a year still considered most likely.

Iran's missile and drones stocks significantly reduced, but according to recent US intelligence reports they can rebuild the drone capability within 6 months.

Iran has lost/used up somewhere between 40-60% of its ballistic missile capability and that will take between 18 and 36 months to rebuild.

Iran has demonstrated the willingness and capability to effectively close the Straights of Hormuz.

It's also demonstrated it has the capability of targeting critical infrastructure of neighbouring Gulf countries.

Iran has also demonstrated the limits of what both the US and Israel's airpower can achieve on it's own.

While it was never remotely in the realms of possibility that Iran could defeat the US military, it did demonstrate a surprising ability to inflict significant damage on US military bases in the region.

The war has strained relations between the US and the the Gulf and further strained relations between the US and Europe.

That isn't even looking at the consequences to the global economy or what it's done to global food security.

So mostly it looks like returning to the pre-war status quo for the time but with Iran now able to sell it's oil freely.

Not a bad thing at all.

So if it is returning to the pre-war status quo, what has been achieved?

That school was bombed, along with many other civilians. For once, it has made Iran look like they are not the bad guy.

Trump wants the war to end at all costs because it is getting close to the midterms. He will accept any deal to kick this into the future.

The Obama deal was better; it was working. The only way to be 100% sure Iran can't develop nukes is by nuking them and wiping them off the face of the Earth - as Trump said.

So if it is returning to the pre-war status quo, what has been achieved?

Yeah... I mean the US could of just allowed Iran to sell their oil freely without having to have resorted to triggering a war with them and all the days side for the world economy that entailed.

And if it's not a bad thing after all, are people like Draad okay with the Iranian regime getting a potential considerable new source of revenue some of which could be used to fund Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs or potentially could be routed to support their proxy forces in the Middle East.

I mean if that's the case fine, but it seems a bit hypocritical when Trump supporters have in the past been highly critical of deals Obama and Biden did with Iran which financially rewarded Iran.

HOLY CRAP Trump actually accomplished a miracle. Here is what he got out of Iran:

- Reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by about 98%

- Limit uranium enrichment to 3.67% purity (far below weapons-grade)

- Cut the number of installed centrifuges by roughly two-thirds

- Only enrich uranium at one declared site (Natanz)

- Stop enrichment activities at Fordow and convert it into a research facility

- Redesign the Arak heavy-water reactor so it could not easily produce weapons-grade plutonium

- Ship out or dilute excess enriched uranium Allow extensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Permit continuous monitoring of nuclear facilities and supply chains

- Accept “snap” inspections under expanded monitoring rules

- Avoid building new heavy-water reactors for years -

Stay within strict limits on uranium stockpile size and centrifuge development for set periods ranging from 10–25 years

Ooops, sorry! That was the JCPOA that Obama signed with Iran, only to have him tear it up, kill 140 kids, get hundreds of Americans injured, 13 killed, and gas prices to surge 50%.

"So if it is returning to the pre-war status quo, what has been achieved?"

Their leadership has been decimated, they have no fleet and no army...their nuclear capabilities has been knocked back 10 years...lots of Persian people gained a wee bit of hope.

"The Obama deal was better; it was working. The only way to be 100% sure Iran can't develop nukes is by nuking them and wiping them off the face of the Earth - as Trump said."

No it wasn't...not even close... everyone knew it ...

Trump has revealed the inner Nazi within society. If you want to wipe Iran off the map, what separates you from the Iranian fanatics?

Donald Trump cannot win this war. The only questions are when, and by how much, he will lose. He has indeed boxed himself into a corner, with humiliation staring him in the face every day. He’s desperately seeking some way out of the impasse and then presenting the outcome as an overwhelming US victory, thus saving face. But it won’t happen. Because he has no understanding of the opponent facing him, and absolutely no concept of international diplomacy beyond the ingrained American belief that “might is right”.

The US has always been a global bully, an arrogant, overbearing, pretentious peacock strutting the world stage, but there has usually been a sense that, in Congress and the Constitution, there are fundamental constraints on what any president might do. But no longer.

The loose cannon rampaging around the White House visualises the Americanisation of Iran, but that’s a very ignorant man’s pipe-dream. No matter how many bombs are dropped it’s not possible to erase a country’s cultural heritage dating back thousands of years, despite his threat to destroy “a whole civilisation”.

In fact, if anything, this assault has stifled previously existing and well-publicised internal dissent, leaving America as the common enemy that must be defied at any cost. Through adversity comes strength, and, if anything, Iran appears to be growing stronger as it defies its much more powerful aggressor. Where a dictatorship looms as “America First” does the exact opposite of making America great, leaving it despised, increasingly isolated, and hence weaker on the global stage as former allies walk away.

So what comes next? The simplest resolution would be for America to back off, to recognise that it has made a huge mistake and is not going to “win” on its terms. But can anyone seriously imagine Trump condoning that? So, in Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu we have two wounded animals, each masquerading as a “tough guy”, and with nuclear arsenals at their fingertips, trapped in a corner with their pride and place in history on the line.

The whole region is a powder keg on the brink of a cataclysm while the rest of the world, as outlined in this article, suffers to varying degrees, economically, politically, environmentally, and, worst of all, in the devastating impact on poorer countries.

I agree with Mr Tisdall that radical concerted action is urgently required, a plan with inspired leadership that can successfully overcome this brutal assault on diplomacy and multilateral cooperation. But right now it’s bloody hard to see where that effective opposition will come from, either internationally or domestically.

Meanwhile, Trump and Netanyahu, trapped in a corner and caring nothing about anything other than their massive egos, could decide that peace in the Middle East will only come with the push of a button.

And to hell with the consequences. Literally.

“GazzaFromGrongGrong” - the legendary bard of the Guardian Australia comment section - has struck again!

Their leadership has been decimated, they have no fleet and no army...their nuclear capabilities has been knocked back 10 years...lots of Persian people gained a wee bit of hope.

Yes the original leadership has been decimated but there is so far zero indication that those who have replaced that leadership are any less of a threat. They may be even more hard line.

Yes Iran's navy has been decimated. But again what does that achieve. Iran's navy was never considered a significant threat and even without their navy Iran has demonstrated it can still effectively close the straights.

As for no army. Absolute nonsense statement. The IRGC has between 125,000- 150,000 personal, the regular army has around 420,000 personal when you include ground, air, air defence and naval forces. No one remotely credible is suggesting that most of them been destroyed. Sure they have been degraded to some degree but it's clear they maintain the ability to close the Straights and threaten the region with missiles and drones.

As for nuclear capabilities being set back 10 years. Again absolute nonsense statement, no one is claiming that. In fact the US largely ignored targeting Iran's nuclear sites this time round in favour of hitting regular military targets.

And perhaps it did give Persians some hope, but that's likely evaporated by now as it's become obvious the US can't topple the regime from the air alone and won't be committing ground forces. There also there was evidence of a brief rally round the flag effect during the US and Israel bombing campaign. It seems to have subsided now that the bombing has stopped.

As for nuclear capabilities being set back 10 years. Again absolute nonsense statement, no one is claiming that. In fact the US largely ignored targeting Iran's nuclear sites this time round in favour of hitting regular military target

Substantial damage — but not a guaranteed permanent knockout.

My best reading:

1. Installed enrichment capacity: very badly hit. Natanz was heavily damaged; Fordow was later assessed as having “almost all sensitive equipment” destroyed; Isfahan fuel-cycle facilities were also extensively damaged. The Institute for Science and International Security estimated attacks made inoperative/destroyed nearly all installed centrifuges, around 22,000 centrifuges.

2. Enriched uranium stockpile: not clearly destroyed. This is the key caveat. Reports indicate Iran may have moved much or all highly enriched uranium before the major June 2025 strikes, and Reuters recently reported uncertainty over how much 60%-enriched uranium survived.

3. Current additional strikes: recent 2026 strikes appear to have caused limited additional damage to enrichment itself, because the main enrichment facilities were already badly damaged; the newer strikes seem more aimed at weaponization, fuel-cycle, and support sites.

Bottom line: the strikes probably set back Iran’s ability to enrich uranium at scale by many months to a few years, depending on hidden equipment and stockpile survival. But if Iran still has 60%-enriched uranium and any recoverable/hidden centrifuge capacity, the nuclear problem is degraded, not eliminated.

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They ignored targeting uranium enrichment because all the accessible enrichment had already been severely damaged. Most sane people would see that as a positive.

That's not the point I was making. Draad made a response that one of the achievements of this war it pushed back Iran's nuclear program 10 years. That's clearly a nonsense and your own post supports that this war only inflicted limited additional damage Iran's nuclear program.

If one of the reason's for this war was to curb Iran's nuclear program it's seems to have done very little to do that while a massive cost has been inflicted on the rest of the world in return and Iran may yet end up stronger long term than it was before the war.

Draad has drunk way too much of the Kool Aid.

The war has achieved absolutely nothing and as I said months ago, Bozo would do extremely well to get back to the Obama deal that he tore up . . . despite spending billions of dollars, taking countless lives and ruining the world's economy.

Operation Epic Fail will go down as one of history's biggest and costliest blunders.