…and the year isn’t over. The weak Renminbi has powered Chinese exports. Weak domestic demand as a result of the property price collapse and low interest rates have created the conditions for a very weak currency, undervalued by perhaps 30%.
Now in a perfect economic world China should be stimulating domestic demand and importing more to bring this into balance. But they aren’t doing enough. A manufacturer in Greece may be told it’s not his cost structure that’s the issue. But what is he to do, continue investing in a business with a handicap. Who knows how long it will take to get currencies realigned.
For the moment it’s great for the consumer, cheaper, well made products. And make no mistake the Chinese products are superb quality. You can buy an excellent Chinese pair of shoes on Amazon for half the price of anything made in the States. I bought a pair before going to Spain…walked hundreds of miles up and down the sunny hills of Madrid etc. They still look like new 18 months later,
Brilliant, but is it? Are we turning into the Eloi of HG Wells’ novel. A Western world that will rely on others for the essentials of life? This strikes me as a bad plan. Trump’s tariffs are one response. But a 20% tariff doesn’t offset a 30% mispriced currency.